Early MTT deepstack flop top two pair

[Irexes]

Very early here 300k on Party.

Villain has played one hand and was aggressive on flop and turn. Didn't see his cards but it all looked consistent with him having a hand.

I've not done anything unusual either.

My preflop call is possibly worth debating. The tables in these are soooo passive early I figure it pays to be a tiny bit looser, interested in thoughts though.

I'll not post the rest of it til some thoughts come in,


***** Hand History for Game 5686925735 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny: 31831123 Level: 1 Blinds(20/40) - Sunday, February 18, 12:54:03 ET 2007
Table 300K Guaranteed Sunday (913001) Table #146 (real money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: RiggerM0rtis ( 5960 )
Seat 2: JaCkPoT_ ( 4520 )
Seat 3: Rambo5 ( 4940 )
Seat 4: steve54555 ( 5850 )
Seat 5: Irexes ( 5020 )
Seat 6: danyjo2509 ( 4880 )
Seat 7: Don_de_Rude ( 4170 )
Seat 8: DR_PUMPE ( 5140 )
Seat 9: AAAKK99 ( 4820 )
Seat 10: Jeaki ( 4180 )
Trny: 31831123 Level: 1
Blinds(20/40)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Irexes [Ks] [Js]
RiggerM0rtis raises [120]
JaCkPoT_ folds
Rambo5 folds
steve54555 folds
Irexes calls [120]
danyjo2509 folds
Don_de_Rude folds
DR_PUMPE folds
AAAKK99 folds
Jeaki folds
** Dealing Flop ** [6s], [Jc], [Kc]
RiggerM0rtis checks <---- this was an instacheck
Irexes bets [210]
RiggerM0rtis raises [420] <--- this was an instant minreraise

Irexes does what??

Whaddayado??

 

[ChuckTs]

Ya I don't think PF is terrible; of course you know that you're playing it for 2 pair+ and nothing else.

These instacheckminraises (another new CC-exclusive term ) usually mean less strength and more "look, I just minraised. I'm saying I have a good hand" to me. Might see AK here or maybe even AQc trying to make a weird semibluff?

It's kind of an odd play...I actually don't know what to pin him on. AA, KK, JJ all play this differently I think. I mean with this board you're bound to have caught a significant piece of it and a set/AA would lead right out, no? With a board that dangerous, he wouldn't want to give you good odds to see the next card...

Really not sure what to pin him on here, so I really don't know what to do. I'd probably just get confused, say alright I have top 2 pair, let's put him to the test and see if we can stack vs AA.

 

[Irexes]

Thanks Chuck,

I agree with pretty much all of that. He's either got a monster or nothing (possibly with draws). The next card is more likely to give him help than me so I reraise to 1400 (couldn't see a call from much I beat if I push at this stage of the MTT and I'm not holding the stone cold nuts). Pot is 930 before my raise of another 1190.


Irexes raises [1190]
RiggerM0rtis is all-In [5420]
Your time bank will be activated in 5 secs. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
Irexes will be using his time bank for this hand.

?

 

[ChuckTs]

eek.

I'm assuming since this is a $200+ buyin event, 1 pair isn't doing this here. Would AA based on the average player's skill level?

But truly, I don't see a set playing like this. The check-minraise? That's like a micro stakes play :/ He can't have raised utg with QTc, and AQc shouldn't come over the top there...

My opinion is that it's AA or a set. Both would be kinda weird still, but based on the fact that you've got top 2 and have made a set pretty unlikely, I think I have to call. Then again I've made pretty terrible calls in the past...

 

[Irexes]

Yup a potentially horrible rereraise

I'm going to leave it a while til I post the result, but yes this is a $215 buyin. I looked up the guy on officialpokerrankings and he's not one of the donks who get lucky and qualify (like me ).

 

[Irexes]

No-one commenting, which is a shame because I'd really value opinions here.

I folded.

He didn't show, I've been thinking about it since.


My thinking was that I could pretty solidly put him on KK or JJ. I know this is a really specific read, but the mincheckraise post-flop then rereraise allin coupled with the utg 3x bb preflop raise narrowed it right down.

This guy was no mug so a bit of "unusual" betting with trips here isn't unreasonable as he's looking to confuse me. He pretty much knows I'm going to take a stab at it on the flop whether I hit it or not as checking to see another card is limited to very few draws and would just give away my hand if I hit it. He's gambling a bit with the check, but I'd possibly do it myself. The other option is to overbet with trips looking to fake the bluff and induce action.

Anyway his reraise allin was the clincher for me and I could only put him on KK,JJ or AA here (and to be honest I didn't consider AA too much at the time). There is the always present possibility of bluff or draw, but AcQc type hands are probably not minreraising which screams pot building in the context of the eventual push.

AK remains a possibility but it seems too strong a play to make with tptk when I'm demonstrating strength (maybe he didn't believe me).

Only other piece of information I had was his ranking on Official Poker Rankings - Tournament Poker Player Rankings which consistant with his play before and after this hand indicates he isn't an MTT fish.

So it's KK, JJ or AA for me and I folded.

This left me with 3500 and plenty of time with the blinds being slower to get back in it. As it turned out I didn't after losing a series of small pots and went out at the first break. Can't be results orientated about it though.

So either a great fold or I passed up a great opportunity.

Unless he reads this I will never know, given me plenty of food for thought though

 

[ChuckTs]

DAMN (@ not knowing results )

Well, very disciplined fold there... I personally would have gotten my chips in in a jiffy at my regular $10s and $20s, but I think you just might be right in tossing it here.

Just some more thoughts:

What's his range for you, and why is he pushing? I'd say {KJs+, 88+} was a reasonable range for you with the stacks so deep (or is it tighter and you're just fooling around with KJ?), and his, along with his post-flop play is narrowed down to {AK, JJ, KK, AA}.

hmm...I was trying to prove that AK/AA aren't that out of the question for a shove, but they really don't accomplish anything by shoving. All they'd be doing was getting caught vs a set or 2 pair, and push out worse hands. Then again maybe he had you all figured out and made ya fold your KJ with a single pair

 

[Irexes]

His range for me is probably any pair (lots of playing for set value here with the deepstacks) most suited aces and KJs+ as you say.

My actual range here to a 3xbb utg raise in MP is a bit tighter on the suited aces and very low pairs but he only had 9(ish) hands on me so he wouldn't have got that.

I've gone back and forth on this and AA is looking more likely than I originally credited I think. Like you I think it's too strong for AK.

I'd love to know the answer

(for the record in a $22-$33 I call in a heartbeat and let god sort em out)

 

[ChuckTs]

I'd love to know the answer

Me too :/

 

[TheRifle]

The next card is more likely to give him help than me ?

But he's not really playing that way. He does not want you to see any more cards. He's tested you for strength by re-raising, you haven't re-raised all-in, therefore he does not put you on a set. He puts you on a draw (or possibly K plus high card) in my opinion. From the betting pattern, I would doubt that he is on a set, this makes it likely he has AK, KQ or KJ.
But we'll never know.

 

[NineLions]

Yeah, not that I have any comparable experience, but my reaction is AQ, with the Ac and Q of some other suit so he's drawing, but with a heck of a strong draw.

 

[Ronaldadio]

My read, for what its worth, I think it was a good laydown.

I have not got the time to go through every reply, but why could he not be on AA, KK, JJ and now fear straight/ flush? Its early enough in the tourny for him not to want to mess about?

 

[Irexes]

Thanks chaps.

What's your thinking as to why he would minreraise a draw Lions, giving me the opportunity to come back over the top? Wouldn't he be more likely to call my raise and see the next card?

 

[NineLions]

What's your thinking as to why he would minreraise a draw Lions, giving me the opportunity to come back over the top? Wouldn't he be more likely to call my raise and see the next card?

Well, I don't know why, but somehow I got it in my head that there were 3 clubs on the table, which apparently is not the case


Chuck says AcQc doesn't come over the top, so maybe this is an experience and level playing difference, and as such is part of what I need to learn, but this is what I was imagining villian's thinking possibly as:

Flop - missed; check (even though should be c-bet)
Bet by Irexes; minraise - Irexes is probe betting, I'll show him I have something (although on reflection this wouldn't have been a minraise if this was the case)
Reraise by Irexes; push - Irexes has something and is challenging me, but I've got flush/straight draws

Seems an unlikely series of actions now (though, not for the levels I play).

 

[Bombjack]

Your top two pair is definitely good here. I insta-call.

 

[Irexes]

I'd be delighted to agree with you Bombjack, as I'd like to call in a similar circumstance again, what are you putting him on? and almost as important what's he putting me on?

 

[Bombjack]

He probably has Aces or Ace-King. Maybe even KJ suited like you. KK and JJ are just so statistically unlikely as there's only one way to form each hand - given you have the K and J, it's like flopping quads. I doubt he raises with 66 UTG. If you're unlucky he has a flush draw, but you're still clearly the favourite.

He probably thinks you're being aggressive with a draw and wants to price you out, or thinks you might call with KQ or AK when he has AA.

 

[Irexes]

Thanks Bomb and others, I'm at pretty much 50/50 on this and have been for a while, I can't rule out JJ and KK on the basis of probability but I do think AA is the most likely individual holding.

 

[loopmeister]

No-one commenting, which is a shame because I'd really value opinions here.

Ok, not that it's worth much :>

KK or JJ. Probably the latter.

As I read the HH, I was thinking AK, but had to scrap that from his range when you look at the play from HIS perspective. AK wouldn't be pushing here.

So I reckon you made a great lay down.

 

[Irexes]

Ok, not that it's worth much :>

We're all guessing here

Thanks Loop. Nearly a week since the hand and I'm still debating it with myself.

 

[atactor]

u should have called he probably had ace king