Do I call this?

[Kennyseven]

Villian has been a little bit laggy early on and has shown down good hands. Never was a pot odds or math kind of player but would like to know more about correct mathematical decisions.
*********** # 1 **************
pokerstars Game #19425836296: Tournament #100615134, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2008/08/07 - 05:45:21 (ET)
Table '100615134 3' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 2: Kenseven13 (10800 in chips)
Seat 4: loulou1330 (19680 in chips)
Seat 5: OomBas (10020 in chips)
Kenseven13: posts the ante 50
loulou1330: posts the ante 50
OomBas: posts the ante 50
Kenseven13: posts small blind 400
loulou1330: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Kenseven13 [Qd Kh]
OomBas: folds
Kenseven13: raises 1600 to 2400
loulou1330: calls 1600
*** FLOP *** [7s Tc 3h]
Kenseven13: bets 2400
loulou1330: raises 13600 to 16000
kenseven....?

 

[ph_il]

No.
If we call the villains raise we're all in. So, can figure out the odds of hitting for both the turn or river. Assuming you have 6 outs you can hit and win with, you only have about a 24% chance to hit, which is a little over 3:1 odds. You're only getting 2.3:1 on your money to call. So, mathematically, this is fold.

 

[t1riel]

Cut your losses here. You only have king high and no realistic draw. It's not worth calling.

 

[plainluck]

Am I reading this wrong or do you have nothing. Why would you bet in the first place, let alone call a huge raise?

 

[bob_tiger]

Check the flop, Villain put you on overcards and made a good re raise. Fold to his raise, easy hand.

 

[ysmisc]

I think this is a easy fold- I do not think villain is bluffing - This is a major re-raised and you raised before so you probably have something - For me it seems like a clear fold as you only have 6 good outs (Or crazy case of J and A ....)

 

[vincemcnabb]

I think you should've checked preflop and saved your 2400...and I think that villain made a good read and put you on exactly what you had...and if you have any brains just keep practicing your pot odds and you'll get it down

 

[Kennyseven]

No.
If we call the villains raise we're all in. So, can figure out the odds of hitting for both the turn or river. Assuming you have 6 outs you can hit and win with, you only have about a 24% chance to hit, which is a little over 3:1 odds. You're only getting 2.3:1 on your money to call. So, mathematically, this is fold.

Why did you renege on this? And then wrote this....and then deleted this public? VVVVVVVVVVV


Dear Kennyseven,

philthy has just replied to a thread you have subscribed to entitled - Do I call this? - in the Tournament Hand Analysis forum of Poker Forums.

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Here is the message that has just been posted:
***************
Hmm...interesting.

You're getting about 4:1 on your money to call. The call puts you all in, so we're going to see a turn and a river. Assuming you have 6 outs you need to hit to win, you have to get slightly better than 3:1 (to hit on turn or river) on your money in order to justify a call. And you are. So, mathematically, a call here would be correct...
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[Kennyseven]

Why did you renege on this? And then wrote this....and then deleted this public? VVVVVVVVVVV


Dear Kennyseven,

philthy has just replied to a thread you have subscribed to entitled - Do I call this? - in the Tournament Hand Analysis forum of Poker Forums.

This thread is located at:
https://www.cardschat.com/forum/tournament-hand-analysis-51/do-i-call-122232-new/

Here is the message that has just been posted:
***************
Hmm...interesting.

You're getting about 4:1 on your money to call. The call puts you all in, so we're going to see a turn and a river. Assuming you have 6 outs you need to hit to win, you have to get slightly better than 3:1 (to hit on turn or river) on your money in order to justify a call. And you are. So, mathematically, a call here would be correct...
***************


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Okay....looking over this, I know why now that you deleted this. I am getting about even pot odds to hit. Instead of getting slightly better than 3 to 1 to hit my hand, I am actually getting 4 to 1.

 

[Kennyseven]

I think you should've checked preflop and saved your 2400...and I think that villain made a good read and put you on exactly what you had...and if you have any brains just keep practicing your pot odds and you'll get it down

Check here does me no good......any good lag or tag player bets here with any two if I check. Methinks.....I do have a tight game.

 

[orangecat]

What is the deal with this villian guy?? A majority of the hands in question by peeps are against him?? LOL He is very popular and really gets around the tables!!

This is an eazy fold I think!

 

[Kennyseven]

Check the flop, Villain put you on overcards and made a good re raise. Fold to his raise, easy hand.

Probably should have done this....but I already made my bet. What I am really asking is Mathimatically do I call here?

 

[ph_il]

The first time I posted, my math was off...you werent getting 4:1 for your money. If you had, a call would be mathematically correct.

 

[switch0723]

were too busy assuming we have 6 outs, we could very easily have only 3 outs or could be drawing dead. Easy fold imo

 

[Dwilius]

I'll have to be careful to check my post before I answer Kenny, haha.
I'm always changing something, even several minutes later.

And I agree with switch, a shared overcard is quite possible.

 

[ph_il]

this is an easy fold, you dont need all the analysis here

True, easy fold, but OP asked an analysis from a mathematical standpoint. That is what was provided.