deep in tourney

[stormswa]

deep but not in money yet.


buy-in $5.00+0.50, Level VII $150/$300 No Limit, 9 players
Hand History Converted by TalkingPoker.com
SB: T$24352
BB: T$10235
UTG: T$9995
UTG+1: T$14425
MP1: T$10330
MP2: T$6470
MP3: T$9235
CO: T$7785
HERO (Button): T$13130
Players post T$25 ante
SB posts Small Blind T$150
BB posts Big Blind T$300
Pre-flop: A:c: A:d: (T$675)
UTG folds
UTG+1 raises to T$800
MP1 folds
MP2 folds
MP3 folds
CO folds
HERO raises to T$2100
SB folds
BB folds
UTG+1 calls T$1300
Flop: 7:d: 2:d: J:h: ($4875)
UTG+1 checks
HERO bets T$3500
UTG+1 raises to T$12300



??????
what do we do?

 

[joeeagles]

The only hand you're trailing is a set. It could be an overpair, a FD, AJ or something else terribly played.

This decision isn't really about odds, you have 7500 left (25 BB's), so theoretically, if you feel he has a set you could fold. Of course, you can never be sure of that no matter how long he's been on the table with you.

This is one of those decisions that are hard, but I always end up calling when the board has no made hand like here. If he has a set so be it, this would be a monster laydown if that's the case.

 

[blankoblanco]

neverrrr fooold. sorry that you ran into a set, but just don't fold. he can easily play QQ, TT, 99, 88, AJ, flush draw (although you have Ad so less likely), stupid bluff all this way. there are only 2 hands in the deck that would make any remote sort of sense (77 and JJ) that can beat you.

it's a $5 buy-in and you didn't state any explicit reads so denying the really good odds and putting him on a set enough of the time to make this a fold would be pretty impossible IMO

 

[dj11]

You mention deep, but you do not mention reads, nor how you have been playing, and what you think your table image is here. Your tourney life is on the line here.

Even given those concerns, and even after I thought about it for a minute (approximately the same as if I were really playing this hand) I call.

If villain has the set, I think he would play it for some chance at value, and would not have shoved. A more plausible scenario is that he was in a steal attempt , and is now panicking.

But those upfront reads would have been helpful.

There are those folks, who seem to get off on the big bluff playing 72o. Be a horrible time to run into one of those folks.

 

[stormswa]

he flips 77

 

[royalburrito24]

ahhhh man thats brutal

 

[mrsnake3695]

Of course this is easy to say after the fact but I see sets shoving so often that it's the first thing that crosses my mind when I see it. Saying that, I still call, so many other hands make the same play that you beat.