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loopmeister
Rock Star
Silver Level
This has been niggling at the back of my mind for a while, and I finally got round to looking at some numbers.
Here's the scenario:
8-10 players, typical low/micro limit fare.
You get dealt AKs (Top 3 hand according to Sklansky);
Someone from EP/MP ahead of you goes all-in - enough clean you out.
Everyone else folds.
Do you call?
The reason I think this is not an obvious question is as follows. If villian is holding
- Any pair QQ and below, you're a slight dog (basically a coin-toss)
- KK and you're 2:1 underdog
- AA and you're royally screwed - 7.5:1 against
- AKs / AK you're getting your money back
- Any other cards (a bluff) and you're a 2:1 favorite or better
I guess your decision is based on how you distribute the probability of villian holding those 5 classes of hands.
Let's say you have no read whatsoever.
Do you fold that top 3 hand?
My gut says (with no read) the spread is something like:
PP<=QQ - 50%
KK - 15%
AA - !0%
AK/AKs - 5%
Bluff - 20%
If this is the case, your EV is approximately -6c on the dollar, so you should fold.
(assuming you agree with my distributions - which I'm sure you don't
).
The killer is the odds that villian has AA imho...
To complicate things:
* What if there is some money in the pot already and/or the blinds are large, so your pot odds are better than ~1:1, let's say 1.2:1?
* If you do fold this, what would you call with?
I'd appreciate your thoughts on the matter.
Here's the scenario:
8-10 players, typical low/micro limit fare.
You get dealt AKs (Top 3 hand according to Sklansky);
Someone from EP/MP ahead of you goes all-in - enough clean you out.
Everyone else folds.
Do you call?
The reason I think this is not an obvious question is as follows. If villian is holding
- Any pair QQ and below, you're a slight dog (basically a coin-toss)
- KK and you're 2:1 underdog
- AA and you're royally screwed - 7.5:1 against
- AKs / AK you're getting your money back
- Any other cards (a bluff) and you're a 2:1 favorite or better
I guess your decision is based on how you distribute the probability of villian holding those 5 classes of hands.
Let's say you have no read whatsoever.
Do you fold that top 3 hand?
My gut says (with no read) the spread is something like:
PP<=QQ - 50%
KK - 15%
AA - !0%
AK/AKs - 5%
Bluff - 20%
If this is the case, your EV is approximately -6c on the dollar, so you should fold.
(assuming you agree with my distributions - which I'm sure you don't
The killer is the odds that villian has AA imho...
To complicate things:
* What if there is some money in the pot already and/or the blinds are large, so your pot odds are better than ~1:1, let's say 1.2:1?
* If you do fold this, what would you call with?
I'd appreciate your thoughts on the matter.