Calling all-in preflop with AKs

[loopmeister]

This has been niggling at the back of my mind for a while, and I finally got round to looking at some numbers.

Here's the scenario:
8-10 players, typical low/micro limit fare.
You get dealt AKs (Top 3 hand according to Sklansky);
Someone from EP/MP ahead of you goes all-in - enough clean you out.
Everyone else folds.

Do you call?

The reason I think this is not an obvious question is as follows. If villian is holding
- Any pair QQ and below, you're a slight dog (basically a coin-toss)
- KK and you're 2:1 underdog
- AA and you're royally screwed - 7.5:1 against
- AKs / AK you're getting your money back
- Any other cards (a bluff) and you're a 2:1 favorite or better

I guess your decision is based on how you distribute the probability of villian holding those 5 classes of hands.

Let's say you have no read whatsoever.
Do you fold that top 3 hand?

My gut says (with no read) the spread is something like:
PP<=QQ - 50%
KK - 15%
AA - !0%
AK/AKs - 5%
Bluff - 20%
If this is the case, your EV is approximately -6c on the dollar, so you should fold.
(assuming you agree with my distributions - which I'm sure you don't ).

The killer is the odds that villian has AA imho...

To complicate things:
* What if there is some money in the pot already and/or the blinds are large, so your pot odds are better than ~1:1, let's say 1.2:1?
* If you do fold this, what would you call with?

I'd appreciate your thoughts on the matter.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.2676 % 41.10% 05.17% { AKs }
Hand 2: 53.7324 % 48.56% 05.17% { 22+, AKs, AKo }

If we try and simplify the case by saying the chance he is totally bluffing and the increased chance he has AA/KK are roughly equal (both of these are not accounted for above), then calling is still -EV unless we are relatively shortstacked and thus the money already in the pot makes up for villain's equity edge.

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.2676 % 41.10% 05.17% { AKs }
Hand 2: 53.7324 % 48.56% 05.17% { 22+, AKs, AKo }

If we try and simplify the case by saying the chance he is totally bluffing and the increased chance he has AA/KK are roughly equal (both of these are not accounted for above), then calling is still -EV unless we are relatively shortstacked and thus the money already in the pot makes up for villain's equity edge.

Agree with this completely.
This math makes my head spin but the basic premise is it's not a good idea unless you really don't give a rat's ass. Then plonk away and let the chips fly.

 

[ChuckTs]

Well our opponent's range (which will affect your decision) varies depending on his past play. Is he super LAG? or TAG? At micro limits (50NL or 25NL and under), my range for villain is really widened, and I might just call with AKs; but generally I think it's considered a bad play because you're most probably at best in a coinflip situation (and a slight dog).

 

[mrsnake3695]

I think the odds of him having pocket aces is less than that of the odds of a bluff, especially considering that for the sake of this agrument we are calling anything less than a pocket pair or AK a bluff. For instance I think the chances of him having Ace-Queen, Ace-Jack, King-Queen type hand is greater than pocket aces since you already have one of the aces in your hand.

The odds are that the preflop all-in move with no previous action is usually a mid to small pocket pair or ace-X. So I would put the precentages more like:

AA 5%
KK 5%
QQ-22 40%
Ace-X 40%
other 10%

This is assuming no reads, no blind pressure on the bettor, etc.

Assuming these percentages are close then you have 10% chance you are dominated, 40% chance you are a slight underdog and a 50% chance you are a big favorite.

If it's a MTT I would call, you need to accumulate chips whenever possible and sometimes you have to take chances and risk busting out to get chips. In a ring game it would be different and a lot would depend on you bankroll and comfort level with busting out here.

 

[SpankYoAces]

I think the odds of him having pocket aces is less than that of the odds of a bluff, especially considering that for the sake of this agrument we are calling anything less than a pocket pair or AK a bluff. For instance I think the chances of him having Ace-Queen, Ace-Jack, King-Queen type hand is greater than pocket aces since you already have one of the aces in your hand.

 

[tosborn]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.2676 % 41.10% 05.17% { AKs }
Hand 2: 53.7324 % 48.56% 05.17% { 22+, AKs, AKo }

If we try and simplify the case by saying the chance he is totally bluffing and the increased chance he has AA/KK are roughly equal (both of these are not accounted for above), then calling is still -EV unless we are relatively shortstacked and thus the money already in the pot makes up for villain's equity edge.

As a general rule this is absolutely correct. Although there are a bunch of other factors that come into play that will make this a call. How deep we are compared to the blinds, type of tourney (ie: rebuy), blind structure, typical player for the particular buy-in, etc.

I will add though that an open shove for 20+BB early in a tourney or SNG is usually QQ+ trying to catch a fish.

This is a fold until you can add AQs, KQs, AQo, & KQo to villains range.

equity win tie
Hand 0: 52.716% 48.41% 04.31% { AKs }
Hand 1: 47.284% 42.98% 04.31% { 22+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }

 

[zachvac]

The thing you are missing though is that many people (especially in low limits) will shove with Ax, hoping to hit an A and double up. In any of these situations your AKs is dominating and I believe that the probability of Ax (I'm assuming you include that in the bluff category) is more along the lines of 35-40%.

 

[switch0723]

you bumped for that? sigh

although its pretty interesting that i think from what im reading that 2 years ago people thought that calling with a,k was a bad play

 

[PuffinNugs420]

Folding AK

i usually dont worry about %'s when someone else pushes all in and im holding AK suited or unsuited. i always consider the amt. of the raise and my position. if im the only other person in and its for 1/2 my chips or less, i usually call just b/c i figure im prob. in a coin flip. sometimes i am dominated by A's but that doesnt happen often. however i do tend to lose calling down with AK so ive tried to be more cautious with it but we all know big slick looks so good when its first dealt to you