So this was the 8th hand in the tournament so not a whole bunch of info on the player. Both players were in the blinds which can signify a pretty wide range of starting
hands, more so for the Big blind. The small blind was at 50/0 and the BB was at 33/0 for the 6 hands so both pretty happy to get involved passively.
On a paired flop that is a rainbow board AK high is usually good and will take it down around 50-65% of the time with a half pot bet but of course the hand plays pretty ok when called too. So half pot bet was fired and the big blind calls.
The turn comes down the A of hearts so we are full rainbow and 0 draws come in and pretty much 0 draws develop for the range of hands likely to check call that flop out of position. When Villain checks betting here doesn't seem to accomplish too much, all worse hands that are not Ax are folding beside maybe 89 dependent on the price and how poor the Villain is. We would be value owning ourself if he calls any hand that beats us but to be check raised on the turn this early in the tournament puts us in a whole world of hurt so checking back seems the best option for pot control and a little deception.
River comes an 8 and the villain now decides to over bet the pot. Now i don't know about you guys but whenever i see an over bet whether it be an over shove or 5 chips more than the pot it is 85% of the time a monster and 15% of the time total air with 0% showdown value.
So now to our pot
odds we are calling 400 to win 760 so we get 1.9-1 so we got to beat roughly 50% of his range for this spot.
Villains range for calling from the BB in this pot is pretty wide after he shows he is happy to play a lot of pots with his loose passive style however when he check calls the flop his range now becomes 22-TT (assuming he is passive i think TT can be in his non 3 bet range) it is also A2-AJ (maybe AQ) it is T7-KT, 74s 75-7K (already said A7) and also any straight draw so 96 97 89 and J9. You may disagree with this but i feel it a pretty accurate range assumption.
We have to figure his Ax range is a whole lot less likely as we have an Ace and an Ace is out there on the board so that part of his range is a whole lot thinner that the rest of it.
Now on that river with the over bet we need to ask ourselves what his range should be of those hands we identified to be in his flop range and if we beat 50% of those hands we need to for it to be profitable.
Ok lets start with 22-TT, 22-66 will be checking the river as they have showdown value and they have very little need to be overbetting however a very very small percentage of the time they may turn this into a bluff but even less likely they would overbet bluff it but crazier things have happened however i feel we can eliminate them from is range after his bet and same goes with 99 for the showdown reason. 77 88 and TT all can very clearly overbet this river as they are all the effective nuts against the way we play this hand.
Now onto the Ax we have already spoken about the chances of Ax being much less likely so our analysis of his Ax rangehas about half of the significance of the other hands in his range. A2-A6 again most often will make a 40-100% pot value bet or check call but again every now and then a fish may over value their hand and overbet it but really really unlikely this happens. Same goes for A9 AJ AQ however AJ/AQ would be a little more likely to over bet but still not really happening. A8 A7 AT all once again could certainly make an overbet for value. Every single 7x can easily over bet this river that is obvious and simple. Now for the straight draws, 89 makes a pair on the river and will likely try to get a cheap showdown, both 97 and J9 now make a straight and can certainly decide to overbet for value. Now 96 in my mind is the only plausable hand with 0 showdown value that is in his range given his actions!
So to some up his likely range of value hands:
77,88,TT,A8,A7,AT,74,75,76,78,7T,7J,7Q,7K,97,J9 (maybe even T8 that i missed)
His likely bluffs:
96.....
now and again but not often due to having showdown value 22,33,44,55,66
And we beat:
A2,A3,A4,A5,A6,A9,AJ,AQ but with 2 aces gone and the chances he over bets them super unlikely we can't account for these often.
Now i don't know about you but i think we can assume we are toast here and we fold.
