Bubble time: Poker Stars Round 1 Illinois World Cup of Poker

skoldpadda

skoldpadda

Caveman Eye Surgeon
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Down to 11 players with top 9 qualifying for round 2... what do you do here? Hero is comfortably in 2nd in chips and well ahead of 3rd place in chips (at about 45K). Villain raises 3x BB with big aces and middle-high pairs and I've been at her table a long time and noticed she has only min raised with KK or AA (twice before). Do you risk it and try to crack her or just fold?

pokerstars Game #10939265025: Tournament #55407577, Freeroll Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (1000/2000) - 2007/07/14 - 17:57:28 (ET)
Table '55407577 5' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 3: stormisky2 (67459 in chips)
Seat 4: Chicago2 (25697 in chips)
Seat 5: chisox5544 (14406 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 6: chitown420 (15669 in chips)
Seat 9: BabyHumvee (61892 in chips)
stormisky2: posts the ante 150
Chicago2: posts the ante 150
chisox5544: posts the ante 150
chitown420: posts the ante 150
BabyHumvee: posts the ante 150
chitown420: posts small blind 1000
BabyHumvee: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BabyHumvee :9d4: :10h4:
stormisky2: raises 2000 to 4000
Chicago2: folds
chisox5544: folds
chitown420: folds
BabyHumvee: ? (pot is 7750)
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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Pretty standard call getting nearly 4-1 and with a reasonable effective stack size.

loledit: oh wait missed that it was a satellite. i wouldn't hate you for folding, heh. if we're hugely confident villain can only have AA/KK then we have a huge advantage if we do decide to call (in that we have villain on a range of two hands and villain can't really put us on anything aside from two cards - this is why minraising is horrible kekeke). still, there is no real need to get involved here, but either folding or calling and proceeding with the utmost caution are both fine.
 
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Jack Daniels

Jack Daniels

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I fold this, no probem. I'm not going to mix it up with the chip leader with a very marginal hand when top 9 all get the same payout. With 11 left and the giant lead you've got over 2nd place, you can easily coast to FT if you really wanted to.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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What Chris said. We're not calling here to hit top pair and start throwing chips around; we're calling to see if we can hit a monster and take villain out.

I won't argue with folding either, just playing it safe and coasting along.
 
JimboJim

JimboJim

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I see yuou made it to the State Final. Good luck. IL is playing WV is the divisional so I hope to see you there.
 
NineLions

NineLions

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What DM and Chuck said, although I'm much more likely to call looking for a monster than to fold.

As long as you're confident you can throw it away if a single T or 9 comes on the flop, I'd be calling.
 
M

muddawgg

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i would have no problem folding. let someone else knock each other out
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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I almost insta-mucked, but then realized that I was in no danger whatsoever of not making the top 9 and mathematically I was wrong to fold. What now?

*** FLOP *** :8s4: :jh4: :6c4:
BabyHumvee: checks
stormisky2: bets 4000
BabyHumvee: ?

Also, what do you think of villain's bet here?
 
Emperor IX

Emperor IX

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call it and stack him if you can complete your draw. You're getting 3 to 1, but your implied odds are more than making up for that.

I'd put that as a continuation bet, but I don't know what he usually has when he min-raises pf, so that's just by the looks of things. I'd say either total bluff, a Jack, or an overpair. If you want you can raise for the free card?
 
Y

young hova

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well IMO, You could check raise and hope to get the free card on the turn like emperor said, or you could call and Lead beat the turn 4-8gs and guarantee yourself another card that way. The check raise would be your cheapest option on the flop, if you know he'll check behind you if you decide to check on the turn. Otherwise you might have to bet on the turn if you decide to check raise and you think he won't check behind you and in that case you miswell call and lead out on the turn.

4 g bet, either its a continuation bet, or he has a hand and he's just trying to pot control knowing that you might possibly get frisky with him post flop or he caught a set. He did raise UTG and he could have very well wanted a call/raise considering most of the other stacks at the table will be basically be at tournament risk if they call or raise prefop. I would not be suprised if he had a pocket pair, it could be queens, I'd think more along the lines of 77-JJ. I think he has one of the pairs that wouldn't give him a set though or over cards. These are just my assumptions though based on the situation.
 
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