my biggest fold as of yet. Review

[thefwa]

So already ITM, but final 4 tables in a pretty big guarantee. I didnt have too many stats on the button, but I'll tell you what I think of the hand afterwards.

Merge - $0+$0|<> NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 25.12 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 8.70, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, hands: 23)
SB: 130.42 BB (VPIP: 38.46, PFR: 19.23, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
Hero (BB): 25.21 BB
UTG: 12.4 BB (VPIP: 28.36, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 67)
UTG+1: 25.18 BB (VPIP: 41.18, PFR: 23.53, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
MP: 8.25 BB (VPIP: 25.71, PFR: 14.71, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
MP+1: 56.89 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 8.16, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 50)
MP+2: 35.41 BB (VPIP: 14.86, PFR: 12.28, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 175)
CO: 55.71 BB (VPIP: 19.61, PFR: 9.80, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 51)

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has Q:heart: K:spade:

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2.24 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 2.24 BB, SB calls 1.74 BB, Hero calls 1.24 BB

Flop: (9.85 BB, 4 players) 6:club: T:spade: A:club:
SB checks, Hero checks, MP+1 checks, BTN checks

Turn: (9.85 BB, 4 players) J:diamond:
SB checks, Hero bets 4.93 BB, fold, BTN calls 4.93 BB, SB calls 4.93 BB

River: (24.63 BB, 3 players) 2:club:
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 14.75 BB, fold, fold


BTN wins 24.63 BB

There are 2 reasons why I had folded.
I can only see him calling with a drawing hand (clubs), he would have bet an ace or a set on the flop. and would definitely have 3 bet JJ either pre-flop or on the turn. So I only had him on clubs on the turn.
Reason 2: I would have been crippled and been in push fold mode if I had been wrong, and I had enough chips if I had folded to still do damage.

Interestingly enough I nearly end up taking most of that same player's chips a few hands later:

Merge - $0+$0|<> NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 34.59 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 11.54, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 52)
CO: 23.9 BB (VPIP: 35.19, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 55)
Hero (BTN): 38.57 BB
SB: 54.42 BB (VPIP: 14.99, PFR: 12.20, 3Bet Preflop: 4.92, Hands: 814)
BB: 31.74 BB (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 15.22, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 46)
UTG: 24.89 BB (VPIP: 5.81, PFR: 4.65, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 86)
UTG+1: 34.88 BB (VPIP: 14.10, PFR: 10.26, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 79)
MP: 20.74 BB (VPIP: 13.24, PFR: 11.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.48, Hands: 204)

8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has Q:spade: T:club:

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (6.3 BB, 2 players) Q:heart: T:heart: 5:club:
MP+1 bets 2.06 BB, Hero raises to 5.5 BB, MP+1 calls 3.44 BB

Turn: (17.3 BB, 2 players) 2:spade:
MP+1 checks, Hero bets 8.65 BB, MP+1 calls 8.65 BB

River: (34.6 BB, 2 players) 7:club:
MP+1 checks, Hero bets 14.26 BB, MP+1 calls 14.26 BB

Hero shows Q:spade: T:club: (Two Pair, Queens and Tens)
(Pre 68%, Flop 95%, Turn 100%)
MP+1 shows 9:diamond: Q:diamond: (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 32%, Flop 5%, Turn 0%)
Hero wins 63.12 BB

analysis on the first hand?

 

[alexis8888]

Good fold!

 

[PBG789]

Pre-flop - did hero consider a 3-bet. You have a slightly bigger than min-raise then 2 flat calls one of which is the big stack from the SB who will be playing any two in this situation. Seems like a good spot to pick up a tidy pot.

Flop - I would expect BTN to bet a lot of the time here if he has a flush draw - particularly as original raiser hasn't continued and there was no pre-flop aggression from the blinds.

Turn - when he calls here he is only getting 3:1 on the call when he is only about 18% to hit a flush if he has the draw. Of course he could have something like KJc QJc or JTc but why would he not bet those hands on the flop. Regardless think hero bet size should be a little bigger here. 60-70% of the pot should price out draw only hands but will get enough calls from Jx hands.

River - hero check opens the door for villain to represent the flush but not sure villain play up to that point is consistent with that story. Personally I would have shoved the river as the best I am putting him on is 2 pair. Could be wrong though!!!!

 

[horizon12]

In first hand turn need bet much more around pot because very more players and you can only split if get 2-3 callers or lose against flush. Also if you bet 9bb, river will be easy shove with good pot odds.

 

[dj11]

I don't like that first hand fold. Sure, I would hate to lose such a hand, but there are so few flushes out there that it would have been worth paying to get beat there.

Do not assume that villain could only have a drawing hand. Sure he could have, but any Ax hand is gonna be there, and if he he hit trips, he's gonna act the same, even 2 pair. If he hit that flop with 2pair or bigger, then you have to give serious consideration to him trapping. That would explain his flop check.

Not to mention that villain could also have KQ or just plain sees a spot to steal when you wimp out on that river.

Had you bet the river, any bet, you might have taken the hand there, but in most cases would have limited villains response to only calling. Here you gave him the opportunity to steal it. He is not gonna have that flush that often.

Personally, I'm taking that straight to showdown.

 

[thefwa]

Yeah, I honestly didn't mind the fold had I known the end result. But, it never feels right to fold, especially sets or better.

In retrospect, I definitely should have bet turn much harder 75+% of pot and the hand may have went differently. And those who are saying to do this so I could get the right price, I have to disagree slightly. At that stage, I'm trying to survive and get better spots to build a stack (while it was a pretty good spot overall...), I'm not trying to get 'priced in' for my whole stack. On a 4-way flop. odds are one of them would have a possible flush draw.
And I didn't want to squeeze KQo and get folded off my equity if one of them 4-bet, as the raise was from a relatively tight player from an early enough position. Weird hand overall.

Just a little more of my analysis. Feel free to disagree, I would love more opinions.

 

[Panamajoe]

I have been burned with flushes so often I am afraid I would have folded due to the psychological pressure more than anything else. That is why I really need to study value betting and pot odds so I can get my emotion out of it.
Thanks for the post, really interesting discussion.

 

[Sil3ntness]

I don't think I can fold to that river bet. The button can easily be bluffing a flush and we have the nut straight. Unless the button is a complete nit that only bets when he or she has it. I'm calling that river bet.

 

[xxMorpheusxx]

What does everyone think of firing on the river first hand?

If we check we put ourselves in a position where we have to guess at a larger range of holdings. But if we bet a somewhat respectable amount then it forces him to define his range a little more clearly.

Not sure on the pot/stack ratio though.

 

[Sil3ntness]

What does everyone think of firing on the river first hand?

If we check we put ourselves in a position where we have to guess at a larger range of holdings. But if we bet a somewhat respectable amount then it forces him to define his range a little more clearly.

Not sure on the pot/stack ratio though.

When you bet though, I feel you are polarizing the button's range. Are we planning on calling a shove when we bet out of position? Also when we bet the river out of position we prevent the button from bluffing (unless Button plans on raising/shoving over a bet).

Most likely though if button doesn't have a strong hand they're not going to call the river bet anyways. I prefer a check/call IMO. Allows button to attempt a float on the river. If you get checked back oh well, probably wouldn't get paid anyways.

 

[dj11]

What does everyone think of firing on the river first hand?

If we check we put ourselves in a position where we have to guess at a larger range of holdings. But if we bet a somewhat respectable amount then it forces him to define his range a little more clearly.

Not sure on the pot/stack ratio though.

Any bet will do. A small one (1/4 pot) looks like a value bet, and that would be enough for most none flush hands to muck. It doesn't even have to be that big, a min bet could do it. Any sane villain has to respect the possibility that you have the nut flush, so even in the case where he has a small flush, there is that (yeah slim) possibility that he muck that. But There isn't gonna be a flush every time. So your villain is gonna see the straight out there as well as the flush.

What you are left with is a villain who will be looking at 2 ways to get beat if he has anything less than the nut straight, and only 1 way to get beat if he too has the nut straight.

Yes, getting your nut st8 beat by a flush is painful, get over that. It is gonna happen occasionally, but not even close to every time.

 

[thefwa]

Oddly enough I was in a very similar position today. It was in the final table 10k GTD which I ended up winning.

Here it is:
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 22.09 BB (VPIP: 20.59, PFR: 19.70, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 370)
UTG: 44.27 BB (VPIP: 22.39, PFR: 20.63, 3Bet Preflop: 13.64, Hands: 167)
CO: 10.75 BB (VPIP: 19.15, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 247)
Hero (BTN): 26.74 BB
SB: 64.14 BB (VPIP: 25.65, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 263)

5 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2 BB) Hero has Q:club: J:spade:

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, SB calls 1.5 BB, fold

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 3:heart: T:diamond: K:diamond:
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (5.5 BB, 2 players) A:diamond:
SB bets 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

River: (9.5 BB, 2 players) 5:spade:
SB bets 4 BB, Hero raises to 12.75 BB, SB raises to 60.04 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 9.89 BB and is all-in

SB shows T:club: K:club: (Two Pair, Kings and Tens)
(Pre 61%, Flop 70%, Turn 9%)
Hero shows Q:club: J:spade: (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 39%, Flop 30%, Turn 91%)
Hero wins 54.79 BB

Also, I tanked for like a solid minute before calling and villain was super surprised that I had a straight. I thought he had 'it' and he thought he did too. Good tourney overall, made a little over 2.5k off of it

 

[rock0001]

tough decision. i dont know if i could fold the maximum straight on a non paired board with 3 clubs. in most cases i would just shove all in or call if im more deepstack because you are only losing against a flush and there is a chance that villain has 2 pairs or a set. if i know the player is really tight and dont get involved in lots of hands i might fold the hand.
with 2 villains on the hand the chances of a player having a flush draw is higher than if you were heads up, however there is still lots of chances than neither of them had the flush. with less than 20 bb in this spot i would shove all in and hope villain doesnt hit the flush.