Big Slick, early in MTT.

[S93]

True. Are we ballsy enough ? Would it be correct to re-pop in this situation ?

It whouldnt be a terrible idea to raise here but i whould let it go and wait for a better spot.
Why should whe commite or selfs to call a shove in a wa/wb situation?

Just my opinion but there is still plenty of situations yet to come where u can out-play/flop your oponent.

 

[Egon Towst]

Oops, sorry about the delay. The real world intervened.

-----​

This is a difficult situation and, as is often the case at poker, there is no simple and obvious answer upon which we might all agree. Let me offer you my answer, for what it`s worth.

When we make a modest raise, to build the pot, we are betting that we have a better hand than the opponent. However, if we make a large raise, to take the pot down, we are betting that the opponent does not have a hand with which he can call. A subtle difference, but a very important one.

Therefore, turn it around and think about this: what hand (or range of hands) have we represented so far ? What is the opponent likely to put us on ?

I would suggest that he might very well believe (if we were to reraise at this point) that we have a heavyweight pocket pair AA-TT. (TT would be the nuts, of course). That would fit with our playing of the hand to date.

I would further suggest that, if he believes we have that range of hands, it will be very difficult for him to call a scary reraise unless he holds something which is ahead of most of our supposed range. In other words, he would probably have to have nothing less than AA, KK, or TT before he could call with confidence. This is a very narrow range and, therefore, there is a good chance that he will not be holding one of these hands and cannot call if we reraise.

Tough stuff this, especially if any of you are not entirely sober. It is like "what do we think that he thinks that we have ?" I hope I am making sense so far.

Next question is bet-sizing. If we decide to re-raise, how much should we bet ? This is a bit easier. Standard re-raise would be three times the opponent`s bet. In this case $720.

If you notice, $720 is more than half of the opponent`s remaining stack. I would suggest this to you as a general principle – if you are asking your opponent for more than half his stack (in other words, a sum which will make him seriously pot-committed), put him to a decision for all his chips. There is a strong chance that it`s going that way before the hand is over anyway, so put maximum pressure on him and give him a hard choice now rather than allowing him to dribble his stack into the middle in bits and pieces.

But hold on a moment, you may say. That is a helluva risk. If we play for his whole stack and lose, our own stack will be very seriously depleted. We will have only 18 Big Blinds left and it is still early in the tourney. We will be seriously at a disadvantage compared with other players and faced with a tough battle to get back into contention.

So, this is where we should think about the wider context, what you will sometimes see referred to as the “Metagame”.

In a sense, because this is (as I said in the second paragraph of this post) a close decision without an obvious correct course, this is where hand analysis breaks down. Hand analysis can`t tell us the right answer if there is no single right answer. Therefore, the correct course is the one which best fits my goals in my poker career today and in the long term. And, crucially, my correct course may not be the same as yours if you were the one playing the hand, because my context may not be the same as yours.

When you play in a ring game and have a stack of (say) $100, the value of those chips is $100. That much is simple. However, when you play in a tournament, the real value of your chips may bear very little relation to their numerical value. The value of your chips lies in the amount of the buyin which you have paid and the time which you have invested (and, in the later stages, expected payouts come into the equation, but that is a complexity too far for this present discussion).

To fill in my context, I play mainly MTTs and have had some success. I have built up an online bankroll of ~$10k. However, I play for recreation more than for money. I withdraw a little occasionally to buy a vacation or a treat for my wife, but I have a good day job and no desire to be a poker pro. I sometimes play $100 buyin tournaments and that is within BR management considerations, but I am just as happy playing tourneys in the $5 to £20 range, and they are my daily diet. It is about relaxation and the challenge of the game, rather than money per se.

The game from which this hand comes is a $5 buyin with a guaranteed prize pool of $6000. So, the rewards for reaching the FT are not to be sneezed at, but I have invested only $5 (an amount wholly insignificant in relation to my BR) and have played for only a few minutes (this is still Level One). Therefore, the value to me of my stack is quite low and I am prepared to take a calculated risk with it.

So, if your decision is to fold here, you are not wrong and I do not for a moment suggest that is not the right decision for you. But my decision was to attack, and we continued:



Egon Towst raises [$1380.00 USD]
Perceval1er folds
Egon Towst wins $1890.00 USD from main pot




Villain used up all of his thinking time before reluctantly folding and, although we will never know for sure, I wouldn`t be at all surprised if he had QQ or JJ.

The point of all this is not to say, "Look how clever I am, I won a big pot". I took a big risk and (on another day) might have crippled my stack, which would not have been so clever. The point is to suggest some thinking at the next level, beyond analysis of just the board and our hole cards.

I hope that doesn`t sound too pompous.

-----​

For those who like to know results, I had a good first hour and was lying 3rd at the first break (of 528 players remaining). However, I took two nasty beats in the 2nd hour when my AA and my QQ were both cracked, and finished outside the money, not quite bubble boy but close to it.

Ah well, that`s poker.

 

[S93]

Oops, sorry about the delay. The real world intervened.

-----​

This is a difficult situation and, as is often the case at poker, there is no simple and obvious answer upon which we might all agree. Let me offer you my answer, for what it`s worth.

When we make a modest raise, to build the pot, we are betting that we have a better hand than the opponent. However, if we make a large raise, to take the pot down, we are betting that the opponent does not have a hand with which he can call. A subtle difference, but a very important one.

Therefore, turn it around and think about this: what hand (or range of hands) have we represented so far ? What is the opponent likely to put us on ?

I would suggest that he might very well believe (if we were to reraise at this point) that we have a heavyweight pocket pair AA-TT. (TT would be the nuts, of course). That would fit with our playing of the hand to date.

I would further suggest that, if he believes we have that range of hands, it will be very difficult for him to call a scary reraise unless he holds something which is ahead of most of our supposed range. In other words, he would probably have to have nothing less than AA, KK, or TT before he could call with confidence. This is a very narrow range and, therefore, there is a good chance that he will not be holding one of these hands and cannot call if we reraise.

Tough stuff this, especially if any of you are not entirely sober. It is like "what do we think that he thinks that we have ?" I hope I am making sense so far.

Next question is bet-sizing. If we decide to re-raise, how much should we bet ? This is a bit easier. Standard re-raise would be three times the opponent`s bet. In this case $720.

If you notice, $720 is more than half of the opponent`s remaining stack. I would suggest this to you as a general principle – if you are asking your opponent for more than half his stack (in other words, a sum which will make him seriously pot-committed), put him to a decision for all his chips. There is a strong chance that it`s going that way before the hand is over anyway, so put maximum pressure on him and give him a hard choice now rather than allowing him to dribble his stack into the middle in bits and pieces.

But hold on a moment, you may say. That is a helluva risk. If we play for his whole stack and lose, our own stack will be very seriously depleted. We will have only 18 Big Blinds left and it is still early in the tourney. We will be seriously at a disadvantage compared with other players and faced with a tough battle to get back into contention.

So, this is where we should think about the wider context, what you will sometimes see referred to as the “Metagame”.

In a sense, because this is (as I said in the second paragraph of this post) a close decision without an obvious correct course, this is where hand analysis breaks down. Hand analysis can`t tell us the right answer if there is no single right answer. Therefore, the correct course is the one which best fits my goals in my poker career today and in the long term. And, crucially, my correct course may not be the same as yours if you were the one playing the hand, because my context may not be the same as yours.

When you play in a ring game and have a stack of (say) $100, the value of those chips is $100. That much is simple. However, when you play in a tournament, the real value of your chips may bear very little relation to their numerical value. The value of your chips lies in the amount of the buyin which you have paid and the time which you have invested (and, in the later stages, expected payouts come into the equation, but that is a complexity too far for this present discussion).

To fill in my context, I play mainly MTTs and have had some success. I have built up an online bankroll of ~$10k. However, I play for recreation more than for money. I withdraw a little occasionally to buy a vacation or a treat for my wife, but I have a good day job and no desire to be a poker pro. I sometimes play $100 buyin tournaments and that is within BR management considerations, but I am just as happy playing tourneys in the $5 to £20 range, and they are my daily diet. It is about relaxation and the challenge of the game, rather than money per se.

The game from which this hand comes is a $5 buyin with a guaranteed prize pool of $6000. So, the rewards for reaching the FT are not to be sneezed at, but I have invested only $5 (an amount wholly insignificant in relation to my BR) and have played for only a few minutes (this is still Level One). Therefore, the value to me of my stack is quite low and I am prepared to take a calculated risk with it.

So, if your decision is to fold here, you are not wrong and I do not for a moment suggest that is not the right decision for you. But my decision was to attack, and we continued:



Egon Towst raises [$1380.00 USD]
Perceval1er folds
Egon Towst wins $1890.00 USD from main pot




Villain used up all of his thinking time before reluctantly folding and, although we will never know for sure, I wouldn`t be at all surprised if he had QQ or JJ.

The point of all this is not to say, "Look how clever I am, I won a big pot". I took a big risk and (on another day) might have crippled my stack, which would not have been so clever. The point is to suggest some thinking at the next level, beyond analysis of just the board and our hole cards.

I hope that doesn`t sound too pompous.

-----​

For those who like to know results, I had a good first hour and was lying 3rd at the first break (of 528 players remaining). However, I took two nasty beats in the 2nd hour when my AA and my QQ were both cracked, and finished outside the money, not quite bubble boy but close to it.

Ah well, that`s poker.

Is this 4th or 5th level thinking? .

I think you gave the best posible anlysis imo,not much that can be added.
Its a high risk moved that worked cause you represented it well. If you whould have lost there is allways another tournement somewhere .

 

[RickH2005]

Tanx, Egon!

You ever think about writting a novel?? That was one of the funnest posts I've seen! Not only was it fun to read--It was fun TRYING to put myself in YOUR shoes and play the hand! I like how you finished the hand! I wasn't thinking about how much 'we' were actually loosing---more how much we could win(chip-wise). I guess I don't have the heart to do what you did--I'd a' folded, like I said! But you obviously did the right thing as Percy folded! 'Cuz I DID put him on pkt 10s (or Q-Qetc) I just felt he had 'us' beat! I look forwrd to your next thread! I learned soething about putting things into perspective today! Thanks Alot!

 

[KMC1828]

you got ballsy. =)

 

[KerouacsDog]

man, ive just got in from a club, its 2.15am, im up to my eyeballs with jack daniels, im so tired/drunk, but the post by you Egon was so far in front of my thinking on that hand that I dont know what to say.
Maybe Im overtight in tourneys, but for him to bet the flop, I still would go with my original plan of folding. I dont like getting involved with A-high on a flop like that early in a mtt.
Now if I had reraised, and he had called/pushed all in, I would put him on a set, or overpair to the board, before he showed, and we would both have outs, sure, but I guess early on I like to hold the nuts/near nuts before I commit myself.
You've got cahoonas, Egon, maybe I need to grow my poker ones, i dont know.
Anyway, i need to sleep this hangover/drink off, and will reread this tomorow morning, and see where I am.
But please write a book day, Egon, ok.

 

[Egon Towst]

I am thinking of writing a book one day, KD. I am going to call it “How to Make Love to 100 Beautiful Women”.

I figure it won`t matter whether the book sells or not, because the research will be its own reward.

Seriously, though, boiled down to its simplest, the essence of my decision to reraise on the flop is this:

1. If villain should call, I have outs.
2. He probably won`t call, because I have represented a monster hand and challenged him to play me for his whole stack. The range of hands with which he could logically call is very narrow.
3. If he should call, and I lose, it won`t be a major setback or annoyance for me because I don`t have much investment in this game. (Notice that I would be likely to play this hand differently if this were a $100 buyin, or it were the second hour of the game.)

This whole approach to tournament play is about selective aggression. If you play in ring games (esp. full table ring games) it makes perfect sense to fold every doubtful hand and play only strong cards. Some players play MTTs in much the same way and, whenever they have a day when the cards run well for them, they will go deep in the tourney. That`s fine, and you can have a lot of fun and a reasonable measure of success playing that way.

Have you ever wondered, though, how it is that a few of CCs best MTT players seem to post several times a week about how they are deep in a tourney ? How can that be ? How can they be successful more often than the rest ? Surely they don`t always get better cards than the rest of us ?

Well, those players have moved further down the track. They understand that your cards are not your only weapon. You can also take down a pot using your position, your chip stack, your table image, your opponent`s hesitancy, or some combination of the above.

You don`t always have to have dominant cards. However, neither should you be playing recklessly and going all-in every time you see an Ace or a Pair. That is not poker, it is bingo. That is why I said selective aggression. You need a solid reason to make your move, but the reason need not always be that you expect to win a showdown.

 

[KerouacsDog]

I went for a walk tis morning to clear my head, and surprisingly started thinking about the content in this post.
I love your play in this hand/tournament, very ballsy, but then I figured some maths around the buy-in, your BR.
You have $10000 online, and this is $5 buy-in. equalling 2000 buy-ins.
I have $300 online, roughly, give or take $20 for current variance/donking. For me to have 2000 buy-ins, Id be playing a .15 cent mtt.
So, ok, not sure if there's any of them around, but I do know, and do play frequently, the 10 cent turbo 360player mtts at pokerstars.
Would I play this hand this way in that tournament?
Hell, yeah, without skipping a heartbeat. And why? Because sometimes I play those 10centers, and I just wanna fool around, so I play any old crap just for fun, 84os all-in PF, 23os early position, heck even bluff all the way to the river with 72os, and when I win with that I ask for a dollar off everyone. And I would compare this hand with any of those, the way it was played.............hear me out.
Me and a good poker friend have been analysing the wb/wa concept for the last few weeks, and we've kinda added some stuff to it. That stuff we're still developing, still running it through hands, but it seems to be working so far, as an extra concept to wb/wa.
But anyway, back to wb/wa. And this hand.
Flop is T75 rainbow, you hold AK. Whats the wb/wa range you could be facing(without worrying about the betting PF)
Ok, best he can have right now is TT in his hand, for a set of Tens. Worst he can have is 23, for Ten high. Right? So his wb/wa range is Ten High worst to set of Tens best, right? And you have Ace High.
So, your wb/wa is narrowed to slightly ahead with Ace High against Ten high, or way,way behind with Ace High against a set of Tens. Yeah you have outs, right?
tell me what outs you have against a set of Tens?


theres exactly one hand you can get to beat him, runner, runner JQ for Broadway, right. Any other cards are no good. Runner runner AA or runner runner KK will give you trips, but will give him a FH.
Now, how is you Ace high on the flop looking against the range he could have? terrible, right.
by all means, anyone can pull this move in a mtt costing them a 2000th of their br, would you do the same move in a mtt costing a 100th of your BR, truthfully?
I know what you're saying, but I dont like this move in a mtt with a higher percentage buy-in against your br.
Forgive me if this sounds wrong, Egon, i respect your posts, always have and always will, but this is almost a playmoney mtt, from where you're standing.
kd


you need help with the book?, I could provide a chapter, if my wife doesnt mind...............

 

[Egon Towst]

you need help with the book?, I could provide a chapter, if my wife doesnt mind...............

Lol. I may face objections from my wife also.

As regards the hand, you are not wrong, KD. He could have TT and, if he does, nothing you do will get him to lay it down, and the move I made will probably trash your stack and make you look very silly.

However, his range is wider than that and, if we play in fear that our opponent holds the nuts (unless, of course, there is good evidence that he does), we will not win many hands and will not often be successful.

There are lots of imponderables in the situation I described, and it really is out there on the edge. Many perfectly good players would not play it the way I did. In particular, I know nothing concrete about the opponent and have had no time to establish my own table image. Therefore, this is a chancy move.

My suggestion was that, even though this move is risky, I believe it will be likely to succeed more often than it fails. That, really, is what we are looking for to allow us to make a decision at the table. Not a plan which is guaranteed of success (because those seldom exist), but one which has a positive expectation.

I believe this fits the bill, both because the prospects of success are reasonably good and because the price of failure is relatively slight (which is why the buyin and time invested are a factor in the decision).

Irexes did a QnA thread a couple of months ago (which I can`t now find, dammit. Help us out, Rex, if you are reading this), in which he stated that his approach to the early levels of MTTs is to play loose and see a lot of flops, on the principle that he can always shrug shoulders and move on to another tourney if he busts out of the present one early, before he has put in too much effort. He was actually talking about seeing cheap flops rather than making big moves, but the general principle is similar.

This is different from the commonly held view that you should play tight early, but it is viable if you are an aggressive player and can use an early chiplead to run over the table and build a strong position.

On the other hand, if you feel that my approach doesn`t seem right and you couldn`t see yourself playing the hand that way, I am not going to tell you that you are wrong. As soon as we get into these complex situations, there is no single right way to play poker and different styles and approaches are workable and may each bring rewards. That was part of my theme here – you must think about your context and develop your style of play accordingly.

 

[KerouacsDog]

ok, Ive read all this, and maybe Im thinking my mtt buy-ins are too high compared to my online br, so that may play a part in why I wouldnt risk my stack on this hand.
Also, and I get the impression that you might be the same, I play online poker because I love the game. End of. No other reason. It's everything that the game has to offer, its the quote from Worm in rounders, about 'rolled up aces against the tourists'(cant rememebr the proper quote), anyway, we play because we love to play. right?
I don't care whether Im in a 10 cent turbo mtt, or the sunday million, its still the same game to me, just the stakes are higher.
Drunkenly, I donked some euros at virgin in HU games, purely cause I hadnt played them for months, and wanted to again.
This might sound arrogant/conceited, but in both of the games I played (3 euro buy-in) I felt I was so far ahead, maybe it was the drink, whatever, but I still had the basic knowledge that I had more guns in my arsenal than the other guy. LOL, sorry thats besides the point.
Anyway, to finish, my online br, is a fraction of my live br, maybe I should evaluate where i want to play, and always bring my A game to the table, which I do most of the times live, and hardly ever online, even moreso at CC freerolls, and at this forum. I am a donk/fish/idiot here, I know that, but most of the time its just me having fun. Time to inject some seriousness,as well as cash, into my online image? I think so...........
This extra wb/wa concept is being discussed between myself, and my poker friends in real life, hopefully I can post a thread here for analysis/critique in the next few weeks.(LOL, its probably already a concept, Im just too much of a donk to google it correctly!)
Thanks for thread, Egon. it was a pleasure.

 

[Egon Towst]

,This extra wb/wa concept is being discussed between myself, and my poker friends in real life, hopefully I can post a thread here for analysis/critique in the next few weeks.

I look forward to reading that, KD.

 

[KerouacsDog]

lol, you and the rest of the poker world probably know it already, im so behind on poker terms, its unreal. Ive only just learnt 3betting, and implied odds, etc, or the terms anyway, I think I knew the plays before I knew the actual wording for them.
Maybe I'll have something for you by the weekend, we have a live game tomorrow, ok to Pm you the outline at the weekend, if we've finalised it, Egon?

 

[Egon Towst]

ok to Pm you the outline at the weekend, if we've finalised it, Egon?

I will be glad to help if I can, KD, but can`t make any promises. I am going away on holiday Sept 3rd to a place where there is no internet connection, so will be offline for two weeks. Might be tough to get it done before then.

 

[KerouacsDog]

nah, thats cool, its only the general idea, it wont be the total of the idea, just outlines.

 

[KerouacsDog]

b4 this thread dies, I want to pose a question/dilemna to you Egon:


Its 2009, and you and, let's say Irexes have both entered a super satellite to the wsop ME, at a cost of $5 each(5000 entries, a package of $12500 for 2 winners(entry/hotel/travel etc)) and amazingly(odds, not poker talent) you and Irexes both win the packages.
You both decide to have a last longer bet of $500, as motivation, ok?

So its Day 1, you sit down,25 regulars from CC are railing you, and amzingly, against the odds, irexes sits down at the very same table as you. more amazingly, Gus Hansen is also placed on your table, and your table becomes the TV table, ok?
Very first hand, this Hand in this thread comes up, you have big slick, and the other person is Gus. You play this hand out the same way to the flop. Then what? Do you make the same move, knowing that A, this is the feature table, and you're gonna look stupid if you bust out first and on the first hand, and B, Irexes will take $500 of you, and C, if Gus has TT, then you are almost drawing dead.
Whats your play, bearing in mind this all cost you the princely sum of $5, but cashing for you could be huge. The cliff-notes for this thread are that it was only a $5 buy-in, so you would make this move, so this WSOP package was also a $5 buy-in, initially, so what's your play?
please answer truthfully.

 

[Egon Towst]

Well, first off, I never ever take a last-longer bet. I think if you take that type of side bet and allow it to influence your play, you put yourself under pressure to fold borderline hands in the late stages. By so doing, you may last longer than your colleague who took the bet but fail overall because you missed a chance to chip up and win the tourney.

If playing Gus Hansen, I would definitely make unusual plays such as this one. I have to believe that Gus is a better player than me over the long run so, unless I pull off something unusual, he is apt to grind me down and beat me.

More broadly, however, the value to me of my chipstack is about more than just the buyin. I have already mentioned that time invested and likely payout are factors also. So, in a high-value or unusual tournament, I may be tempted to play more safely. It`s a tough judgement, because playing too tight and too safe means passing up opportunities.

 

[KerouacsDog]

so, your absolute answer is......................play this hand like in this thread or not?
(ignore sidebet then)

 

[Egon Towst]

If GH is the other player in the pot, yes. Following the reasoning in my previous post, I use this opportunity to (hopefully) take some chips off him and reduce the threat which he presents to me.

Realistically, the outcome is highly likely to be that he folds and I take the pot, just as happened in the real example above. He isn`t calling with anything but TT (which is an unlikely holding). Why would he ? He must figure he can beat us amateurs over the long game and doesn`t need to take risks. It is probably even more important to him not to go out first hand than it is to me. Think of his reputation.

If the opponent is a random player, it is less clear cut. Dunno, really. Possibly not. This is a rare opportunity. Maybe I should exercise more care.

We are missing the point, though. The whole point of this thread is to ask readers to think more widely than just about the cards in front of them and to consider other factors. So, it doesn`t matter what I would do. What matters is what you, or any other reader, might do and that can be different from my decision and still be right if it is the right decision for you.

 

[KerouacsDog]

why is TT an unlikely holding for super loose Hansen?
and can we also put him on 57(I certainly can), hands like that to flop 2 pair? this is Hansen we're talking about?

 

[Egon Towst]

Wouldn`t know, m8. I haven`t studied his game. I`m still working on mine.

I am lost. Are we going anywhere with this ? You seem to want to convince me that, in other circumstances, I should play AK differently. I thought I said from the outset that the circumstances influence the decision-making process.

So therefore, yes. I agree with you, and with myself. Er, I think. Don`t I ? Hell, I dunno. Somebody pass the whisky.

 

[KerouacsDog]

ok, we'll leave it here, its just that you were saying(generally) that as it was only a $5 buy-in for the origninal hand, you were prepared to push with Ace High. I would fold with Ace high.
Ive studied Gus, he'll play anything and everything, and if it was me facing him in this hand at the ME, my range for his 2 cards would be so huge that i wouldnt gamble with my AK on a board like that. We know he likes middle conecting cards, whether they're one gap or 2 gap.
This next bit is not directed at you, Egon, but sometimes I like to deeply analyse hands, but lately it seems that because i play micro online 1c/2c up to 5c/10c my thoughts are not taken seriously enough, because of my choice of stake. I wanted to take this hand to further levels, seems like im alone in this.
I was a member of 2+2 for a while, b4 here, under a different name, 3 years ago, and because I chose to play micro and post the hands there, they dismissed me as a micro player, without any serious thoughts on poker. i left 2+2 because too many of those idiots jumped up in levels/stakes, and forgot they too grinded micro once. Their egos took over.
Micro hand analysis at CC is becoming the same way, imo, people dismiss it as the donks playing their $2 br and not having a clue how to play poker, well, i for one, fear that CC may go the same way as 2+2 if we continue to operate this way.
Sorry, just a rant. Leaving this thread now.


Nice thread.thanks

 

[istinkatthis]

He min bet so I would raise 3 to 5 times $120 to $200.

 

[KerouacsDog]

He min bet so I would raise 3 to 5 times $120 to $200.

nice play, whats the thinking, please?


(Ignore my previous post, just a rant, i was life-tilting at the time!)

 

[the_men222]

i like reraise in that positon(100-120) because yoiu put the pressure on...
and after the flop you bet 180 .....your oponnet will thinking hard to call you

 

[10crow10]

i would reraise to $170 and probably fold to any reraise unless it was a minraise, AK is such a bitch to play with low blinds, same with jacks.