Big hand in middle stages of an MTT

[blankoblanco]

Reads: wolfpack seems like an alright player who's shown reasonable amounts of aggression both pre and post-flop. I've seen him caught bluffing once, so I know he's capable of it. He jumps at the opportunity to raise pre-flop; basically I'm not very worried about overpairs or any "good hands", but rather whatever rags may have hit this flop.

Started with 215 players, there's about 80 people left and the top 27 are paid, if that helps anything.

Full Tilt Poker Game #1260159137: $3,000 Guarantee (8458905), Table 15 - 120/240 - Pot Limit Hold'em - 4:42:56 ET - 2006/11/17
Seat 2: combuboom (6,120)
Seat 3: wolfpack13 (10,371)
Seat 4: g_train24 (21,557)
Seat 5: JOHNBOY15XX (29,027)
Seat 6: smurfa81 (12,922)
Seat 7: immo30 (4,326)
Seat 8: Maccamc (7,971)
Seat 9: HellRaiser16 (7,662)
combuboom posts the small blind of 120
wolfpack13 posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to combuboom [Kd 8c]
g_train24 folds
JOHNBOY15XX folds
smurfa81 has 15 seconds left to act
smurfa81 folds
immo30 folds
Maccamc folds
HellRaiser16 folds
combuboom calls 120
wolfpack13 checks
*** FLOP *** [5s 2s 8s]
combuboom bets 320
wolfpack13 raises to 960
combuboom has 15 seconds left to act
combuboom calls 640
*** TURN *** [5s 2s 8s] [2h]
combuboom bets 1,440
wolfpack13 has 15 seconds left to act
wolfpack13 raises to 6,480
combuboom...

What would you have done differently so far? What hands do you put him on? Shove it all in or fold?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

The phrase "don't go broke in an unraised pot" comes to mind. Any paint in mid-late tourney stages when folded to in the SB is worth a raise unless you have a very LAG player to your left. Raising gives you a chance to take the pot there and then, and even if called you can generally discount hands like ragged two pairs or low flushes when that flop comes out - hands you can't discount if you've just limped preflop.

Why are you leading the turn after calling his flop raise? The play simply makes no sense. If you really want to put more money in, put the 1.5k in when the action comes back to you on the flop, but I'd recommend just folding to his raise.

Either way once he makes the big turn bet this is a really easy fold. TPGK in an unraised pot on a 3-flush and paired ragged board in an unraised pot is simply no good with this action - all you're beating is a bluff.

 

[blankoblanco]

Why are you leading the turn after calling his flop raise? The play simply makes no sense. If you really want to put more money in, put the 1.5k in when the action comes back to you on the flop, but I'd recommend just folding to his raise.

Not saying it's the ideal play, but I think it makes sense. I called because I had a reasonable hand that is usually ahead here... I put him on a flush draw. In his mind, I obviously could just be betting at this because it's a scary looking board and the odds are he doesn't have a spade. If he already has the spade flush I honestly didn't think he'd tip me off with this raise, when there's such a huge chance that I have nothing anyway and would immediately throw it away.

I put him on a semi-bluff spade draw at this point... I guess you're not thinking along the same lines I am, but that honestly makes the most sense to me. I just called because I wanted to see if a spade hit the turn or not before going any further; if it does, I won't waste any more money. Because I still think he's on this spade draw, I pretty much have to lead out this flop or else I'm giving him a free card. Just my reasoning...

 

[Egon Towst]

Fold, unless you are pretty confident that he would risk essentially all of his stack on a bluff.

Very difficult to put him on a hand, but a couple of spades, pocket fives, or an overpair are all possible.

Unless it is a stone-cold bluff, I don`t see what he could be holding that you could beat, and too many possibilities that would beat you.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

How can you solely put him on a spade draw when his range is two cards considering that the pot was unraised?

If he has a made low spade flush on the flop why would he not raise? If a spade falls on the turn it's either a huge scare card that kills his action, or he will fall behind if you have a higher spade.

 

[Bombjack]

My read of the situation is that he puts you on a spade draw and has an 8 himself, and thinks you're semi-bluffing the turn. He's raising so you don't hit your flush. But because you didn't raise pre-flop he could also have something like 8-5 for top two pair or even 5-2 for the full house, or a low flush which he's raising in case you have a higher spade. But I think your hand is probably good. Whether this is the best time to risk your whole stack is another question... I'd probably fold it and wait for a better situation.

 

[blankoblanco]

My read of the situation is that he puts you on a spade draw and has an 8 himself, and thinks you're semi-bluffing the turn. He's raising so you don't hit your flush. But because you didn't raise pre-flop he could also have something like 8-5 for top two pair or even 5-2 for the full house, or a low flush which he's raising in case you have a higher spade. But I think your hand is probably good. Whether this is the best time to risk your whole stack is another question... I'd probably fold it and wait for a better situation.

Actually considered this too. And the thing is, once he raised the turn, I could pretty much rule out any full house, because he's not going to make that huge scary looking raise with the full. If he thinks I'm on a spade draw, he might raise, but enough to give me odds to chase it to the river, if he's got the full house. I thought about 85 also. I was most scared of this possibility than anything else once the turn hit. Trip 2s was a possibility as well, but not a full house... would he raise the flop with just a 2? I doubt it. 2 + flush draw, maybe though.

 

[blankoblanco]

How can you solely put him on a spade draw when his range is two cards considering that the pot was unraised?

If he has a made low spade flush on the flop why would he not raise? If a spade falls on the turn it's either a huge scare card that kills his action, or he will fall behind if you have a higher spade.

Well I didn't *solely* put him on that; it just seemed statistically probable considering he's probably either got the spade draw, pair of 8s, or the flush already, and there's only 2 more 8s in the deck.

You're right, he might raise with the small flush, but I think it's more probable he wouldn't. If I'm just making a play at this, attacking the BB who checked (typical), if he just calls I might make another bluff at it on the turn, whereas the raise is often going to just chase me off and waste a flopped flush. If he has the flush and I have the spade draw, I'm only going to hit it on the turn about 15% of the time; it's not as though he has to worry about me seeing it all the way through. He has position and he can give me whatever odds on the turn he wants 85% of the time when another spade doesn't hit. For this reason and the fact that typical internet players love to slowplay, I mostly discounted the small flush.

 

[ChuckTs]

These are the exact type of hands that screw me over in MTTs; I get in over my head with a marginal holding, and either go busto or lose enough to tilt myself out. I say fold because there's no good reason to risk your whole tournament on a hand like this; they say play small pots with 1 pair hands, as they just aren't worth going broke with - even TPTK which you are just short of. Then again in real life I probably go broke here by pushing...

 

[blankoblanco]

The result:

combuboom calls 3,480, and is all in
wolfpack13 shows [8d 4s]
combuboom shows [Kd 8c]
Uncalled bet of 1,560 returned to wolfpack13
*** RIVER *** [5s 2s 8s 2h] [3c]
wolfpack13 shows two pair, Eights and Twos
combuboom shows two pair, Eights and Twos
combuboom wins the pot (12,240) with two pair, Eights and Twos

Looks like Bombjack called it best. He also had the flush draw too, though he couldn't have trusted it would have been good if he made it. Maybe it was too risky to get involved here. Instincts just told me I was ahead, so I went with it. That being said, 85 probably would have played it the same way and beat me, so I don't know if I necessarily was "lucky" but I at least wasn't unlucky.