AT vs shortstack push in $6.50 turbo

[ChuckTs]

No reads on villain since we're multitabling and our shitty PC is making our PAHUD go all flickery and shit. Can't remember anything out of the ordinary from him (ie no crazy looseness etc).

Can we call this (or push)? Or wait for a first in spot?


pokerstars GAME #9701630596: TOURNAMENT #49232796, $6.00+$0.50 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL IV (50/100) - 2007/05/01 - 16:54:56 (ET)
Table '49232796 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Medelander02 (1575 in chips)
Seat 3: ChuckTs (1405 in chips)
Seat 6: Distephano09 (3920 in chips)
Seat 7: marianoboni (1805 in chips)
Seat 8: MCMATTO (1180 in chips)
Seat 9: TrowserSnake (3615 in chips)
ChuckTs: posts small blind 50
Distephano09: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [Ac Ts]
marianoboni: folds
MCMATTO: raises 1080 to 1180 and is all-in
TrowserSnake: folds
Medelander02: folds
ChuckTs: ...

 

[joosebuck]

you're the SB, i think we fold and abuse our position on the next few hands.

 

[ChuckTs]

Does the fact that the 3 to our left are complete calling stations change your mind? cuz I forgot to add that they are :/

 

[joosebuck]

even to the point of any 2 from the blinds for their tourney life?

 

[ChuckTs]

Probably to the point of fighting back with nearly ATC to a standard raise from LP. I could of course just use the hammer and shove, but I don't feel much like risking my whole tourney on K8 or 44 or whatever with a 1500 stack at 50/100.

 

[joosebuck]

but you wanna risk it with AT?

 

[ChuckTs]

dunno :/

hence the thread

 

[joosebuck]

seems kinda marginal. feels like mostly you're 60/40 or 45/55 with the occasional 30/70 and 70/30

 

[t1riel]

A, 10 is overrated, especially unsuited. Unless he's a maniac, a 6x raise in early position is concerning. I'd fold.

 

[mrsnake3695]

Fold.

What hands do you dominate here?

You are behind to every PP, and every AJ or higher, which are the most likely hands for villan to have I think. Even if he has KQ, KJ or something you aren't that much ahead. You are only ahead of A-9 or lower and if he has that its prob suited which takes a small part of your edge.

Plus you have absolutly no fold equity which you would need to make A-10 playable.

 

[ChuckTs]

Fold.

What hands do you dominate here?

You are behind to every PP, and every AJ or higher, which are the most likely hands for villan to have I think. Even if he has KQ, KJ or something you aren't that much ahead. You are only ahead of A-9 or lower and if he has that its prob suited which takes a small part of your edge.

Plus you have absolutly no fold equity which you would need to make A-10 playable.

You're in the BB with 78s. The button pushes for less than 1BB more, and you're getting odds to call. Do you fold because "suited connectors are meant for multiway limped pots"? Of course not; you call because you've got great pot odds. I know the situations are different, but saying that you need fold equity to play AT doesn't really apply here. It's a great hand to push around, but it's also ahead of an 11BB stack's (M=7) range I think.

Not really sure if I'm making sense here; I'm half asleep (4am here), and sick as a dog.

If I'm villain at this point, I'm pushing a whole lot of marginal hands. It's a turbo, and the blinds are about to hop up (again), and I'll soon be even shorter stacked than my 11BBs. I'm pushing with probably this range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.604% 53.49% 03.12% 330632232 19258442.50 { AcTd }
Hand 1: 43.396% 40.28% 03.12% 248992627 19258442.50 { 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q9s+, JTs, A2o+, K7o+, Q9o+, JTo }


In which case we're nearly getting the pot odds to call. Toss in the %10 minimum bluffing freq, the fact that most players are looser than average at these stakes, and add in some suited connectors etc, and I think it's closer than you think.

...and after all that, I think I still agree with you guys . I decided to fold and wait for some first in opportunities.

 

[blankoblanco]

I agree with Chuck that a couple people are underestimating how close it is. It's not a matter of overvaluing AT, it's just a function of the situation. It's a turbo, shorthanded, villain's shortstacked with just over 10BB in push-or-fold mode and the blinds coming up. That being said, it's still a fold for me.

AQ+ I instapush.
AJ is borderline, could go either way considering the circumstances. In a turbo I think I lean towards pushing, but I can't say for sure if that's "right".
AT I'd fold and feel pretty good about it.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

This is a clear fold, sorry.

First, some guys are calling stations. As the blinds go up and raises get more meaningful, they will invariably tighten up, so this doesn't matter as much as you think it does.

Secondly, I say this all the time but it need reiterating, in these late-game SNG scenarios, first-in vig is HUGE. You should not be calling off your stack (or most of it), unless you have a truly significant reason for doing so.

Thirdly, villain has 11BBs, and as such isn't as utterly desperate as you seem to make him out to be. He can fold for another couple of orbits and still retain fold equity. He's also UTG+1 here - if he was making a move, one would expect it to be from later position.

Fourthly, the cost of calling and losing is far greater than the benefit of calling and winning. Call and lose and we're in the 'dead zone' - call and win and we have a slightly above-average stack and still aren't even guaranteed to be getting any money from the SNG. Even if villain exposes K9s you should be folding here (I think - it's certainly close).

 

[alan1983]

^^^^^ what dorkus said.

If shortstack had just lost a pot or has been raising a lot, then id think about calling but probably wouldnt either.

But as it is, ok he has 10 BBs but theres 3 players quite close 2 him. With blinds at 100 hes not in desperation mode yet. He can easily have a pocket pair or AJ-AQ. Why should we take that risk with a marginal hand like A10?

Times that he has a better hand + times where his lesser hand might win = fold for me.

 

[ChuckTs]

This is a clear fold, sorry.

First, some guys are calling stations. As the blinds go up and raises get more meaningful, they will invariably tighten up, so this doesn't matter as much as you think it does.

Secondly, I say this all the time but it need reiterating, in these late-game SNG scenarios, first-in vig is HUGE. You should not be calling off your stack (or most of it), unless you have a truly significant reason for doing so.

Thirdly, villain has 11BBs, and as such isn't as utterly desperate as you seem to make him out to be. He can fold for another couple of orbits and still retain fold equity. He's also UTG+1 here - if he was making a move, one would expect it to be from later position.

Fourthly, the cost of calling and losing is far greater than the benefit of calling and winning. Call and lose and we're in the 'dead zone' - call and win and we have a slightly above-average stack and still aren't even guaranteed to be getting any money from the SNG. Even if villain exposes K9s you should be folding here (I think - it's certainly close).

-Tighten up like this? Those guys were actually tighter than the guys at this table, too.

-Also, remember this is a 6-handed table.

Fair enough, though. I still have trouble with these borderline situations (or clear-cut situations ) in turbos which is why I folded and decided to wait for some first-in spots instead.


Thanks for the input!