AQ vs TAG reraise all in; $15 turbo STT

[ChuckTs]

I'm TAG (~15/15/2 at this point), he's tight/aggressive, but had been limpy in the earlier stages (~15/4/1), and I'm not sure if I'm getting the odds to make up for being behind his range here (which I assume I am, considering he's pushing a hand in which I, a TAG player, raised utg).

Can we call?

pokerstars GAME #8915102230: TOURNAMENT #45338458, $15+$1 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL V (75/150) - 2007/03/15 - 14:52:40 (ET)
Table '45338458 1' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: heibes (3990 in chips)
Seat 2: x_QUIXTAR_x (1740 in chips)
Seat 3: Daleroxxu (3760 in chips)
Seat 6: Matrixx777 (1325 in chips)
Seat 7: ChuckTs (2685 in chips)
Daleroxxu: posts small blind 75
Matrixx777: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [Ad Qc]
ChuckTs: raises 300 to 450
heibes: folds
x_QUIXTAR_x: folds
Daleroxxu: folds
Matrixx777: raises 875 to 1325 and is all-in
ChuckTs:...

We're getting 2.11:1 odds btw

 

[joosebuck]

i think so, because some of the times we'll be ahead of his range. on the other hand, we do have 2200~ chips left if we fold here, which is enough to work with at 75/150.

 

[ChuckTs]

no more help here?

 

[Lafaena]

Quite a bordeline desicion, but i think calling is good given his fairly short stack. Depends a bit on the people to your left, if theyre rocky your still able to steal a bit if you fold. If the blinds are going up soon, i would defenetly call. He might be pushing expecting you too call cuz you raised from upfront. Tough one, gonna have to go with your feel on this one.

 

[TheRifle]

You don't really have the odds to call unless he is playing a low pair below QQ. Without having sat at the table it is hard to give an opinion as it comes down to whether the guy has A) a very good starting hand AA, AK, KK or QQ and feels that you will call given your initial bet, or B) he has a low PP or Ace rag and doesn't want to see a flop. If you're up against (A) you will behind on pot odds against (B) it's more even or in your favour. Would he push a (B) hand? Quite possibly given his stack.

From the strategic pov, if you call and lose, your position would still be viable if dicey. If you call and win, you will be handily placed.

Personally, I would call but that's just me.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Just about a call.

This hand is pretty much the last point at which BB has any reraise fold equity, so he could be doing this with anything if he's a strong player. Generally at the $15s though this is indicative of a decent hand, but getting over 2-1 as probably not far off a coinflip against his range, coupled with the fact we still have a decent stack (i.e. our shoves will still have fold equity attached) if we call and lose means I call this.

 

[TheRifle]

Another thought on this. In the Harrington books it is suggested that you can look at these hands as a probability set- assigning a probaility to each possible opponent starting hand (from betting patterns and starting hand percentages) and then the known probaility of you winning or losing against that hand. Summing the probailities then gives you an indication of whether it is correct to call or not.

An example here might be:

opponent hand probability he has this hand percentage he beats your AQ with it.

AA .01 .92
AKs & AKo .08 .74
KK .01 .70
QQ .01 .69
Lower pair .37 .54
Ace plus card not K or Q .37 .25
bluff (i.e. rags or suited connectors) .15 .37

Obviously this is illustrative only but gives a 57% chance that you win. The interesting stat is that against a bluff (e.g. 62o) you are only about 63% favourite so he gets better odds for that than for his ace plus rag.

 

[ChuckTs]

results:

I call, with the line of thinking that he most probably has me beat but sometimes makes this move with 1) a bluff and 2) hands that I have crushed (AJ-, KQ etc), aswell as the fact that I'm getting decent odds and will still have a manageable stack if I lose. He shows TT, which holds.

Thanks for the input guys.

 

[Bombjack]

Ignoring the results, I think you made a good call.

Even if his Tens were face-up, you should call.