AQ early in STT

[ChuckTs]

$5 SnG, very early (3rd or 4th hand in), and so far my general read on the table is typical LAG donkeyness. No specific reads on villain.

pokerstars Game #5868792420: Tournament #29715621, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2006/08/10 - 18:24:38 (ET)
Table '29715621 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: ChuckTs (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: BoomerHawk (1490 in chips)
Seat 3: macdad12 (1300 in chips)
Seat 4: NHARRYB1 (2150 in chips)
Seat 5: matt_atkins (1440 in chips)
Seat 6: Baconwood (1500 in chips)
Seat 7: bigs60 (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: thankonst (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: LockDawg27 (1120 in chips)
NHARRYB1: posts small blind 10
matt_atkins: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [Ac Qs]
LockDawg27 said, "nh"
Baconwood: folds
bigs60: folds
thankonst: calls 20
NHARRYB1 said, "ty"
LockDawg27 said, "glad i folded those 6's"
LockDawg27: folds
ChuckTs: raises 80 to 100
BoomerHawk: calls 100
macdad12: folds
NHARRYB1: folds
matt_atkins: folds
thankonst: folds
*** FLOP *** [8d Qc 2s]
ChuckTs: bets 150
BoomerHawk: calls 150
*** TURN *** [8d Qc 2s] 8♥
ChuckTs: bets 400
BoomerHawk: raises 840 to 1240 and is all-in
ChuckTs:......

Waddaya think?
My first thought was 'alright, I got him'....then I thought maybe he's slowplaying AA/KK?....wasn't really worried about 8, but it is a possibility (this is $5...)

So...any thoughts?

 

[Bombjack]

It is pretty unlikely he has an 8. You have nearly half your stack in already so you only need about 30% equity to call.

I think:
15% total bluff. 15% AQ. 20% an 8. 15% KQ or QJ. 5% set of 2s. 15% AA or KK. 15% JJ, TT, 99.

You lose only 40% of the time on this basis, and you have about 10% chance of improving on the river, so it's a call I think. Having said that, I always lose with AQ.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

fold, he either has AA/KK or a random 8, this IS a 5 dollar tourney remember

 

[Jack Daniels]

You could also be reading too much into it. If this is a LAG with that much donk play in just 3 hands, you may just consider taking the shot here. You're sitting on top 2 pair with top kicker. It is the fourth hand of the $5 tourney. Yeah, he could have the 8, but it isn't as likely. A big Q too, maybe AQ like you. Push and see. If this was a different stage of the tourney, you'd have a better read on the players and could analyze it better.

My gut says he's pushing trying to build a stack.

 

[F Paulsson]

There's about 2200 in the pot, and it's 840 to you. I've been saying this a lot lately, but it's worth repeating: This is early in the SnG. Be willing to gamble. Your primary investment in this SnG isn't the $5 buy-in, it's the ~45 minutes it will take you to win it. Going out early isn't a disaster; it's going out on the bubble that's expensive. Don't take this to the extreme, of course, pushing when you're clearly behind is not good. But when it's a close call between calling and folding, I'm much more willing to gamble when it's early on.

You could also be reading too much into it.

I'm seeing a pattern in the hand analysis forum that boils down to this. Time to make a post about it, I think.

 

[ChuckTs]

One thing that's held true and I try to play by every time I'm playing a focused game is to trust your first estimation to where you're at. If you immediately getting that gut feeling that you're beat, then analyze the odds to see if it's worth a call knowing you're behind, and if not then just dump it.

With this hand, my first instinct was that I was ahead (I thought he was playing TT or JJ poorly), then as I noted, I started to overthink the situation, and found myself considering AA and KK as possibilities. I never really considered the 8 though...don't know why.

I also agree with you, Fredrik; you have to take these gambles when you don't have reads. If I'd folded TPTK every time someone made a weird play like this, I'd be in debt by now. On top of that, It's a big pot and I only have 2/5 of whats in the middle to call, so I think I'm getting odds even if I am behind AA, and even moreso with KK. Add in the time factor, and I think this is an easy call.

Here are the results for the results-oriented and the curious:

*** TURN *** [8d Qc 2s] 8♥
ChuckTs: bets 400
BoomerHawk: raises 840 to 1240 and is all-in
ChuckTs: calls 840
ChuckTs said, "big pair?"
*** RIVER *** [8d Qc 2s 8h] 9♥
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ChuckTs: shows [Ac Qs] (two pair, Queens and Eights)
BoomerHawk: shows [Qh Jh] (two pair, Queens and Eights - lower kicker)
ChuckTs collected 3030 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3030 | Rake 0
Board [8d Qc 2s 8h 9h]
Seat 1: ChuckTs showed [Ac Qs] and won (3030) with two pair, Queens and Eights
Seat 2: BoomerHawk showed [Qh Jh] and lost with two pair, Queens and Eights
Seat 3: macdad12 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: NHARRYB1 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: matt_atkins (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: Baconwood folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: bigs60 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: thankonst folded before Flop
Seat 9: LockDawg27 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

 

[twizzybop]

I had about the same thing happen today in a MTT.. I have pocket AA's and raise about 6XBB and someone calls in MP while I am in LP. Rainbow flop with a King, he checks.. I bet a little more then then the pot, he pushes all in. I said if it is a set so be it.. I said if it is a King X hand I have him dominated. I called and was correct that he had K,Q.. crippled his stack hardcore.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

good call man. nice result, but im still folding in that particular spot. thats why micro tourneys are sooo tough to play, its very hard to put your opponet on a hand. One thing I noticed so much when I used to play is they love to flat call AA and KK preflop, even with 2-3 other players in the pot. But really if you think about it... the only possible hand that a 5 dollar donk makes this play with is QJ, and I guess Q10 is in his range if he did that with QJ

 

[ChuckTs]

fold, he either has AA/KK or a random 8, this IS a 5 dollar tourney remember

good call man. nice result, but im still folding in that particular spot.

I don't understand what you're saying here; you still think you'd fold in that position (in your opinion, the right play), but you still think my call was good due to the results?
Do you think it was a +ev or -ev play?

The thing about low-limit monkeys like this guy is that you have to apply the most basic reads to them. ie weak means strong and vice versa; also the speed of their bets.

For instance, if a guy open pushes into a rag flop after calling a raise OOP in a fairly small pot, then he's almost %100 trying to buy the pot, and probably has an underpair or something.
Also, say that you raise PF, then hit your top pair on a board with a 2-flush. You then bet out, and your opponent immediately calls. Usually that means your opponent has the draw; he doesn't have to think, and all he's thinking is "alright! flush draw! lemme see that next card".

I know alot of you get your online reads from betting amounts and the speed of those bets, and that's what gave it away for me in this hand. Preflop, he called very quickly, usually indicating 2 paint cards that want to quickly see a flop and hope they hit. When they have a big pair, it's usually either insta-min-raise, or they think for a while acting weak and then push. Though I don't disagree with you, dingo; alot of these donkeys will cold-call in a multiway pot, which was something I was a little scared of in this hand.

Anyways what I'm trying to say is that unconciously my reads just told me that I was ahead, and that he was weak. That's why I called; had I acted only on my analysis of the hand at the time and ignored my read, I probably would have folded.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

thinking more about it, due to the stakes, i think the call is +EV and therefore the right call. BUT I'm still folding because I'll have plenty of chips left if i fold and I can clearly outplay the rest of the field... i would hate to call and be shown A8. Also, at any stakes higher than $20 this is a clear fold. funny how sometimes you have to base decisions on the amount of the buy-in