Another kind of ridiculous pre-flop spot with QQ

[blankoblanco]

2nd hand of a $22 single-table SnG. No reads.

Blinds are 15/30
9 handed, effective stacks are all ~1500.

UTG+1 raises to 120
In fourth position, I look down at QQ and reraise to 360.
Folds to the button.
Now the small blind (villain) rereraises all-in for 1500.
UTG+1 folds, and it's back to me

Anyone finding a fold here? What range do you put villain on?

 

[tosborn]

JJ-AA, steal attempt with AK (marginal). I probably make the call, because, I don't mind gambling with big hands such as these. Definately a WA/WB situation.

 

[blankoblanco]

note just so nobody misunderstands: too late to edit but i meant to say "folds through the button"... button didn't call or anything, he folded too

 

[mrsnake3695]

You'll see hands such as A-9 or 66 make this shove more often than AA or KK. So in the range of possible holdings you are way ahead of more hands than you are way behind to. So, I call, watch him show A-3 off suit and spike an ace on the river.

 

[Stick66]

Some say I'm too read-dependant, but I'll stick to it.

22nd hand with a read that says to = call.
2nd hand without reads = fold.

Simple. Without a clue, I'm playing it safe.

 

[dj11]

Well, you got a top 5 hand, against a total unknown.
I think range has nothing to do with things here, and you have a freeroll fish who won something and decided he knows the secret.

That said, there is that oddity where when one pair shows up in a hand, that hand tends to have other pairs.

If this is a sng you normally play, and the $22 doesn't phase you, call. However, if the entry was a stretch, fold.

I have stayed away from sng's of late and lost touch with how fast they tend to be. In my case that $22 would be a stretch and I could fold QQ there. Mainly because I have faith that in the course of the game other situations will present themselves, and I will then have reads and maybe even position.

 

[pokernut]

That is a really tough spot, especially 2 hands in but I don't see myself getting away from it. I don't mind a fold here but I would call.

It's tough to put villian on a range of hands here just 2 hands into the SNG. I'd probably guess something like 1010-AA or possibly AQ+. I call here and hope for the best.

UTG+1 is going to need to have KK or AA to call after yours, so if I see his chips go in after mine, I open up the lobby and start looking for another sng lol.

 

[tenbob]

Always give "un-known" players credit until they proove otherwise. This is a standard fold. You still have a very playable stack, and if you feel that your skill level is above that of your opponents then you simply cant call your stack off here.

 

[IVEverLow]

Chalk it up to being new to the game here, but I call this. Honestly, there's only 2 hands that you're behind here. Again I've only been playing for a short while but I find it strange that AA or KK would push all in right here as opposed to a smooth call. I think we're dealing with AQ+ 88-JJ more often than not.

 

[vanquish]

I find it strange that AA or KK would push all in right here as opposed to a smooth call.

Seriously? Think about it, if he has AA or KK, he can get us to commit all our chips pre-flop, and end us, while if he smooth calls and the flop comes something like AJ2 rainbow, he might get very little value out of his big hand (or might have to fold KK thinking that we have an ace).

 

[IVEverLow]

Seriously? Think about it, if he has AA or KK, he can get us to commit all our chips pre-flop, and end us, while if he smooth calls and the flop comes something like AJ2 rainbow, he might get very little value out of his big hand (or might have to fold KK thinking that we have an ace).

From what I've seen (and maybe I shouldn't think of it this way) in the early stages of sng's when most everyone is playing semi-tight, there's always that one (at least one) that uses it to his advantage. Maybe my logic is wrong, but I see three situations we could be looking at.

1. He IS playing with AA-KK here and actually trying to get it all in preflop.

2. He is taking advantage of the beginning stages of the tourney and pushing with decent cards hoping to gather some free chips under the assumption that if he is called he's not extremely far behind most hands.

3. He again has decent holdings and is worried about being out of position after the flop and getting outplayed. (A $22 sng can be filled with horrible post flop players).


I would be thinking #2. Maybe my thought process is waaaay off. Feel free to school me if I seem like I'm talking out of my ass.

 

[blankoblanco]

Always give "un-known" players credit until they proove otherwise. This is a standard fold. You still have a very playable stack, and if you feel that your skill level is above that of your opponents then you simply cant call your stack off here.

It's definitely a fold you can make, but i think to call it a standard fold is pretty over the top.

Nobody has even mentioned the pot odds. There's 2025 in the pot and it's 1140 for me to call. That's a little under 2:1, meaning it's +chip EV to get it in if we win the pot 36% of the time or more. Let's do some math, putting him on the tightest range he could have: AA, KK, AK.

Against AK we average being just over a 55% favorite (57% when they're offsuit, but for the times they're suited, our odds go down a little bit).

Against AA or KK, we average being about 18-19% to win. There are 16 ways to make AK and 12 combined ways to make AA or KK.

So for every 7 times this situation occurs, 4 times we'll be ~55% to win, 3 times we'll be ~18% to win. Against that range, we'll win about 39% of the time on average. It's + chip EV, which means if it were a cash game and we put our opponent on that range, it would be a call. The survival element of a tournament makes it much more debatable, of course.

Now add in JJ to his range (not unreasonable at all), and we win ~45% of the time, a virtual coinflip when we're getting almost 2:1 on our money. That would be a significant edge to pass up. Add in some other random LOL DONK 'N GO hands and it gets better.

The skill level arguement about being to outplay my opponents later is one that I've used before, but I also have realized it works both ways. Yes, I think I have a better chance to fight back from a chip deficit, but I also think I can play a big stack more effectively than most of my opponents can, meaning the early double up could be a huge edge and give me a healthy shot at 1st place, where the money is heavily weighted.

Just some stuff to chew on, I'll post results later

 

[skoldpadda]

Might he be squeezing to take advantage of that you won't want to go out so early?

I call and hold my breath.

 

[tenbob]

Ok, sorry i didnt put much time into the previous post. But based on your math then any pocket pair would also be a call. I dont subscribe to that train of thought in a sit and go. This is not a cash game, there is much more to take into consideration here than simple pot odds, as there is in most tournaments.

The fact is folding does not make you a short stack, you still have 38xBB left and are sitting comfortably in the green zone. True some players will make this call with AK, but considering an early posn raise, your sizable re-raise i'd shove here with AA/KK pretty easily. You havnt committed yourself to the pot, you have a healthy stack, i simply hate calling off a stack with a hand like QQ.

As I said in my previous post, this for me at least is a standard fold after being 4 bet all-in. What do you do with JJ here out of interest, or 66 ?

 

[blankoblanco]

But based on your math then any pocket pair would also be a call.

I only said that if we theoretically knew he only does this with AA, KK, or AK, which will never be the case, that it would be + chip EV to call with QQ. I didn't say I would.. I recognized the fact that it's a tournament and survival is a huge element that +chip EV doesn't at all account for.

So by virtue of that, in this incredibly theoretical situation, in a cash game, 22 and low pairs like that might just barely be a call, but less so than QQ, because low pairs do worse against the range, being significantly more likely to be counterfeited by the board.

In the real world, QQ is a gigantic difference from 66 because in reality, we know he can easily have JJ here, sometimes TT and a little less often other goofy pairs 77-99.

And I'd fold JJ in this spot without blinking, because if I have JJ, he almost never has JJ. When I have QQ, he can easily have JJ. The difference between how JJ does vs AK, QQ+, and how QQ does vs. AK, KK+, JJ, is significant.

But I never said I'd take any small % chip EV in a tournament, because I won't. I was just making a point that even giving him the tightest range imaginable, it'd be way closer than most people think. Once we consider we're in the real world and it's a donk 'n go, well, the tightest range imaginable is rarely the correct one.

So QQ is the worst hand I consider calling with in this spot, readless, and KK is obv. an instacall (I don't think anyone would disagree with that?)

 

[joeeagles]

Having QQ I think good arguments can be made for both calling and folding. I'd fold because although your math makes sense I think this is AA or KK much more often than AK, and I really doubt you should add JJ to his range considering how this hand went with a raise and reraise before his all-in.

Going back to your math I said it makes sense but only from a statistical point of view, in reality its very flawed because out of 7 times you're faced with this situation it won't be 4 times AK and 3 times AA or KK. At best it'll be 2 times AK and 5 times AA or KK. This because in the scenario we have here AK will not do this often, where AA or KK will do it virtually every time. So your 39%, although statistically correct, will not materialize in reality.

Another way to look at it is that if we say the range for this type of play is AA, KK or AK, against 2 of those hands you're a huge dog and against the other you're coinflipping with a slight lead.

All this said I'd fold but I don't think its "standard", and if you called I don't blame you, whether you won or lost it doesn't matter its not about being results oriented.

 

[blankoblanco]

Going back to your math I said it makes sense but only from a statistical point of view, in reality its very flawed because out of 7 times you're faced with this situation it won't be 4 times AK and 3 times AA or KK. At best it'll be 2 times AK and 5 times AA or KK.

Well yeah, I didn't want to get too subjective, so I just did the analysis as if villain shoves every time he gets dealt AA, KK, or AK, folds every thing else. That way it just comes down the frequency with which they're dealt.

Of course I see your point, but you may be underestimating how often AK does this. I mean, it's a donk n' go, he's out of position and he looks down at cards that pretty, a so-called premium hand. Sure, you and I wouldn't do that after the raise and re-raise, but $22 is still somewhat low limits and I've seen so many players (probably the majority) who will absolutely never fold AK preflop no matter what.

But even using my not entirely correct math, I definitely agree that I wouldn't call if i knew his range was AA-KK, AK+. A tiny % edge based on pot odds isn't enough to risk survival in a tournament. But I've played enough of these to know that the majority of players' range for doing this is not nearly so tight as that, meaning our edge may be significant enough to warrant a call. Hell, not just smaller pairs, I've seen KQ and A7s in similar spots. He might have just got bad beaten out of a tournament and now he's tilting. He might just be a losing poker player (the majority are). Who knows? Which is why it's such a tough decision

Results to come

 

[joeeagles]

you may be underestimating how often AK does this. I mean, it's a donk n' go, he's out of position and he looks down at cards that pretty, a so-called premium hand. $22 is still somewhat low limits and I've seen so many players (probably the majority) who will absolutely never fold AK preflop no matter what.

I definitely agree that I wouldn't call if i knew his range was AA-KK, AK+. But I've played enough of these to know that the majority of players' range for doing this is not nearly so tight as that, meaning our edge may be significant enough to warrant a call. Hell, not just smaller pairs, I've seen KQ and A7s in similar spots.

Its because of all this that in the end I said that I wouldn't argue it if you called, regardless of result, and also that its not a "standard fold". I understand why Tenbob calls it so, and in a way I admit that since I'll fold this just about every time unless I know this donk, I should probably agree that it is, indeed, a standard fold. But in the same time I'm aware of the things you say and that I quoted, we probably shouldn't think its so obviously AA, KK, or AK, with many players it can be much wider than that. Its about having the balls to make this call, and its not really always wrong to make it.

I read your other post too, and I agree JJ is a fold w/o blinking, cause now you have to add QQ to his range and that is too many ways to be a huge dog. QQ is definitely the minimum to make this call, and KK is a no brainer, if he has AA you move to next sitngo. Worrying about AA when you have kings, although not impossible, will drive you insane. (That hand on last SM is, at the very least, SICK, considering it was also HU)

 

[blankoblanco]

Good discussion everyone, especially joe, tenbob, and IV. thanks for contributing

Results time: I went into the tank, almost timed out, finally called (as most of you probably guessed). Villain had 33. lol donk 'n gos. Ship me the monies

I still am not convinced if my call here was right or wrong or even if either can be considered "right" against an unknown, honestly. My arguments were more to stir up discussion and attempt to break down a hazy situation a little more statistically (and of course that will always be flawed and not perfectly in line with reality). If it sounded like I'm adamant about calling here, I'm really not. I almost found a fold. I just thought it was a very close and interesting decision.

Ultimately, between the pot odds, knowing only 2 hands beat me, and my past experience with the goofy plays people make early in donk 'n gos, my brain made me click the call button

 

[joeeagles]

I guess you always learn something in poker. Making this play with 33 is crazy, yet maybe not even that wrong considering he'd most likely get me to fold here with Q's, and probably I'm not the only one.

So it comes down to him either taking this pot (525) PF by representing AA or KK, or going busto because if he gets called he's likely a huge dog, and he'll win this 1 time every 5. Is it worth it for villain to make this type of play? I don't think so. But some may disagree. I'm too lazy to run numbers on this, if it can even be done, but I think his play is easily -EV considering he'll get called by aces and kings every time, and by some other hands as well.

What's funny is that he probably thinks you're the donk for calling this, I wouldn't be surprised about that. He must be one of those who thinks "bad players just don't fold", cause by his standards he probably made a great play that should have worked because you had Q's. For some people, it's always easier to blame other players for the terrible decisions they make.

Lol I blame it on Phil Ivey, people watch him make plays like this one and become copycats, not realizing why he can do it and they can't.

 

[gord962]

There is also the time value to consider as well as the fact we have just started, having double the chip stack of all our opponents is a big advantage.

 

[Effexor]

Excellent posts as I have been running into this same exact situation over, and over and over this past week. People coming over the top of a REraise with pocket 5's or AK has come to be the standard play in SNG's these days, and frankly I'm having trouble dealing with this super hyper-aggressive play. It's like about 70% of people can't play post flop. Then I start feeling like I'm playing weak tight for folding a big ace to a raise and reraise.

In this situation I'd probably fold. Is that weak tight? I mean what hands *usually* reraise a reraise? For any halfway decent player this would mean AA or KK.

 

[mrsnake3695]

ship it

Good discussion everyone, especially joe, tenbob, and IV. thanks for contributing

Results time: I went into the tank, almost timed out, finally called (as most of you probably guessed). Villain had 33. lol donk 'n gos. Ship me the monies

I still am not convinced if my call here was right or wrong or even if either can be considered "right" against an unknown, honestly. My arguments were more to stir up discussion and attempt to break down a hazy situation a little more statistically (and of course that will always be flawed and not perfectly in line with reality). If it sounded like I'm adamant about calling here, I'm really not. I almost found a fold. I just thought it was a very close and interesting decision.

OK, If you read my earier post I said that you will often see a very inferior hand make this move, especially early in a tourney. There are tons and tons of donks at this level who see a hand, decide to play it and when there is action after them can't fold once they decide to play so they go "well I'm not going to fold so I might as well shove, maybe they will fold or I'll when a race against AK". Trust me this happens all the time. I would never even consider laying down QQ in this situation I am sure you will be way ahead of villans range 9 out of 10 times.

One of the problems when we discuss hands on this board is that people think about what you should do against good players in normal situations and completley discount the "donk factor". Although sometimmes this will be AA or KK way more often it will be a smaller pair or AX or even something like J-10.

I remember a little while ago a discussion about having AK facing a reraise shove. Now that was later in the tourney than this scenerio but my argument was that you will face a hand other than AA or KK way more often than some other holding. In that case villan had Q-J.

Anyway, we shouldn't overthink and try to figure out what the best move is and how good players would play and therefore what they must have to make this move. You are playing more bad players than good players here.

Even considering folding the third best starting hand is craziness. It's of course different if it's a 25K buy-in against world class players but that is not the case here and we need to stop thinking it is when we consider what to do in a hand.

 

[Effexor]

Anyway, we shouldn't overthink and try to figure out what the best move is and how good players would play and therefore what they must have to make this move. You are playing more bad players than good players here.

Even considering folding the third best starting hand is craziness. It's of course different if it's a 25K buy-in against world class players but that is not the case here and we need to stop thinking it is when we consider what to do in a hand.

Thanks for this input, this is a gigantic hole in my game.

 

[NineLions]

OK, If you read my earier post I said that you will often see a very inferior hand make this move, especially early in a tourney. There are tons and tons of donks at this level who see a hand, decide to play it and when there is action after them can't fold once they decide to play so they go "well I'm not going to fold so I might as well shove, maybe they will fold or I'll when a race against AK".

One slight correction; villain was SB in this case so he wasn't already in. Not that it makes much difference perhaps but yeah, I've seen limp/push too, especially from early position.

I remember a little while ago a discussion about having AK facing a reraise shove. Now that was later in the tourney than this scenerio but my argument was that you will face a hand other than AA or KK way more often than some other holding. In that case villan had Q-J.

Anyway, we shouldn't overthink and try to figure out what the best move is and how good players would play and therefore what they must have to make this move. You are playing more bad players than good players here.

Even considering folding the third best starting hand is craziness. It's of course different if it's a 25K buy-in against world class players but that is not the case here and we need to stop thinking it is when we consider what to do in a hand.

So, rather than assume a player is good until you have evidence otherwise, assume they're, well, the same kind of players you've seen before at that level. Even second hand in, with your tourney life on the line? Not disagreeing entirely with the idea; I have a tendency to assume my opposition is all CC level which is never the case. Just thinking that early on some conservativism might be warranted.



Good discussion all around.