AKs vs LAG; $3+R MTT

[ChuckTs]

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

UTG+1 (t19995)
MP1 (t29165)
Hero (t50450)
CO (t6270)
Button (t31395)
SB (t36786)
BB (t50609)
UTG (t24565)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with

,

.
3 folds, Hero raises to t2400, 3 folds, BB calls t1600.

Flop: (t4525)

,

,

(2 players)
BB (quickly) bets t1600, Hero raises to t4800, BB calls t3200.

Turn: (t14125)

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t11000, BB calls t11000.

River: (t36125)

(2 players)
BB (waits, waits...then) checks, Hero wonders if he can value bet...

I'm fairly new to the table, and have been on a card run that probably makes me look like a maniac since I haven't shown anything down yet. I've been making lots of c-bets and flop raises with what turns out to be the best hand every time (big pairs, TPTK etc).

Villain is also very LAG, having slowed down a little bit recently. His flop bet is his way of showing me I can't keep 'stealing' pots like I have recently, and he could either be on a weak ace, maybe a king, or maybe a FD or JQ or something like that.

Can I value bet this river, and if so for how much?

 

[royalburrito24]

what i have noticed in online poker, people are very afraid to slow play on the river for fear of the person behind them checking down, on the other hand, a very experienced player would have the discipline to check if he knows his or her opponent will bet....

its a tough decision and i say go ahead and value bet....but how much is the question...im not the one to ask.

 

[Effexor]

I would check behind. If he caught his draw it minimizes the loss, and if you have him dominated it will reinforce your table image as TAG making people respect your bets more, allowing for more steals later.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

I check this but then again I'm a nit.

Although he could be calling with some weaker Aces, there are a lot of hands he could be checking with that beat us (I doubt he checks a hit flush here, but QJ and Tx may check), and of the hands we're ahead of, only a few weaker Aces will call (generally).

Villain had QJ, didn't he? Dunno what the flop call was about if so, but the rest of the hand sort of fits with the silly play you get a lot in donkaments like the $3r. Marginal pf call, tiny flop donkbet with nothing, tries a horrible slowplay on the turn, has an awkward decision on the river because of said horrible slowplay, eventually decides he's check-calling.

 

[ChuckTs]

I really don't know what to think of this one. I'm pretty sure he'll call me with any ace here, but his line fits a weirder hand than that. I ended up checking and he flipped over KQd, and I missed a value bet.

Still not sure if it's a good spot to VB vs his range though...

 

[23trojan]

In this case of the tournament, why would he be calling? with all of your bets, it is likely that he has caught at least something. the question now is whether his catch is a straigh, a flush, or trips because you can beat anything else. Therefore, i would throw out a bet that is a little less than your river bet. this will save u money if you lose, but is a good size if he missed. hope you won the hand? another idea is to check, is it worth it to find out hes hiding JQ?

 

[mrsnake3695]

If he check-shoves into your value bet what do you do. You are now faced with one of those tough decisions that will make or break your tourney.

Even though he showed you KQ I'm not sure you would have gotten any value out of him if he's a decent player. The board is horrible for his hand and he has to know this unless he's a complete donk (very possible of course).

I think check behind here since most of the time if you get called it will be by a better hand and not get called by worse ones, plus you leave yourself open to a bluff/shove here which your hand might not be able to call.

 

[viking999]

Against a normal player, I think this would be a definite value bet. He's more likely to have an ace and less likely to have hit a weak draw (QJ, QT, JT). He'd probably even fold the flush draw on the turn given the bad odds. But as a LAG, he could easily have a straight, a flush, or trips. It's a pretty close one. I'd probably check.

I think that if you decide to value bet, you have to fold to a raise.

 

[jsi]

Yup, i'd have chickened and checked as well. But that's one scary board for 2 pairs. AT, KT, QJ plus all the sooted possibilities are within a LAG's range and have us killed. Although there's a good chance we'd get around a 1/3 pot river bet called, i wouldnt try it on this board.