This was with 20 players left out of a 1500 starting field of a $109 buyin online MTT. Typical payout structure.. 14-17 getting 8 buy ins, 11-13 getting 10 buy ins. 240 buy ins for first.
Hero is in 2nd or 3rd in chips overall with 38 BB’s.
Folds around to LJ who jams 12 BB’s
HJ rejams 16 BB’s
Hero in cutoff Rejams with AKo
(BTN and blinds are handily covered)
LJ has AQo
HJ has QQ
Is the proper play to fold here? QQ holds leaving hero with 20 BBs.
I think this is a pretty close spot here. First of all, you are putting 16 BBs to win a pot that will be 47 BBs when you make the call .This means you need better than 34% equity
to make this a profitable call. To better understand the spot, you can't think about the exact hands that the other players played in this particular hand, but the ranges that were likely in play for these players. If you look at the positions, the LJ is going to be jamming 33+, QJo+, KTo+, A9o+, A3s+, K9s+. Q9s+, J9s+...depending on the player type, some will jam wider, some will jam tighter. Another consideration as to the range of this player is how often is he jamming and is this the type of player that is jamming to take advantage of the fact that you are close to the bubble. Against this range, you are getting 53% equity and you should always make the call.
BUT, the HJ is a different story. The HJ is re-jamming with 66+, AJo+, KQ+ and ATs+...again, depending on the player type. We have all seen players rejam hands like JTs or call off with 65s in situations like this. But, maybe this player is tighter because of the bubble and is only re-jamming with TT+, AJo+ and ATs+. Even then, AK has slightly more than 38% equity against that range so this would be a call as well.
The problems though are that if you call and lose, you are down to 22 BBs with 2 left to the money and the other player that won the pot is going to have a sizable lead on you. But, overall you are getting the right odds
vs both the actual hands that were played and you are getting somewhere between 32 and 37% against their whole range. I think this justifies your re-shove. However, I don't think that I have a problem with you folding this spot either, especially if you had given any reads that either of these players were on the tighter side.