AKo facing all in and a call..

[SeanyJ]

pokerstars Game #13185811059: Tournament #66049339, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (150/300) - 2007/11/11 - 20:51:21 (ET)
Table '66049339 274' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: WinPokerWin (11290 in chips)
Seat 2: Fúria Jovem (23570 in chips)
Seat 3: cincykid23 (3330 in chips)
Seat 4: S CATES (1860 in chips)
Seat 5: Read Ma Lips (5270 in chips)
Seat 6: menu22 (8015 in chips)
Seat 7: McManusjs (2810 in chips)
Seat 8: SeanyJ24 (22760 in chips)
Seat 9: MarkinFL40 (34074 in chips)
WinPokerWin: posts the ante 25
Fúria Jovem: posts the ante 25
cincykid23: posts the ante 25
S CATES: posts the ante 25
Read Ma Lips: posts the ante 25
menu22: posts the ante 25
McManusjs: posts the ante 25
SeanyJ24: posts the ante 25
MarkinFL40: posts the ante 25
Fúria Jovem: posts small blind 150
cincykid23: posts big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SeanyJ24 [Ah Kc]
S CATES: folds
Read Ma Lips: raises 4945 to 5245 and is all-in
menu22: folds
McManusjs: calls 2785 and is all-in
SeanyJ24:...

I'm sitting in about 50th place with ~900 people left out of 3058. First villain is 31/15/41, the caller is a nit and has been getting blinded down the whole tourney basically. Should I call?

 

[jaketrevvor]

Hmmm.. tough one. In general I don't like calling allin with AK, especially when it's os as you have no back-up if you do run into aces, but in this case the villains do not neccesarily have the very strongest hands - would Read Ma Lips really push all-in with Aces or Kings? They still have 17 BBs or so this would be a strange move I think. Most likely he's holding QQ, JJ, TT or AK, possibly even AQs or something funky. AKo is a small but significant fave over the range QQ-TT,AQs+,AQo+ and with your comfortable stack here I think you can afford to look him up. The key point here is that if you beat Read Ma Lips' hand you're freerolling against McManusjc.

The only real problem is that if you just call you're risking one of the two big stacks calling behind you which would make things more complicated. I think this is a risk you just have to take though, as raising = push which is too risky with just AKo at this stage in the tourn. If a big stack pushes behind you you fold and get to watch how the hand plays out without the tension.

 

[WVHillbilly]

Fold.

If you put the original raiser on say 10 10+, AK, AQ, or AJ and the caller on QQ+, AK or AQ, you're only about 30% to win the hand. You would need to be getting 3 to 1 on your money to make the call right.

 

[OzExorcist]

The players still to act would have an effect on my decision.

They've all got substantial stacks, a few of them have us covered, and if we just flat call this they're getting pretty attractive odds to hang around with even marginal hands that could cause us some trouble.

 

[Shandy]

Reshove- you have to have the original raises range crushed- do PP above 99 really shove 17bb- doubtful- and the shortstacks call could be any pp, A9o+, A2s+, K10s+, pretty sure you are looking pretty good against both their ranges. Also i personally would shove, this is just incase someone were to come over the top, which would give me a very difficult decision, but i don't agree that calling will encourage others behind to come along with speculative hands- it is at least a 1/6th of evryone elses stack, people dont/shoudnt be calling with crap.

 

[jeffred1111]

No point in calling/shoving in this spot IMHO since we are not getting 3:1 on our money while I don't see us being at more than 30% to win this. Plus, the original 5k raise is a good portion of our stack and we see someone having a pp here a lot more often than only facing one push.

More interesting scenario is if we have QQ. Do we call this ?

 

[jeffred1111]

After some pokerstove calc., my first estimate was right, even against extremly loose ranges (22+, A7o+, A2s+, K7+, suited con., etc.) for both opponents, we are never getting more than around 37% to win while we are contributing far more than this to the pot (we are basically putting almost 45%). But, we are splitting some of the times instead of scooping since player 2 is very shortstacked, wich mitigates our risk to reward ratio.

QQ is a lot clearer, and is a definite call (but I would probably push), as is JJ. TT is where I would draw the line, since player 2 is supposed to be a nitbox.

 

[NineLions]

Oz, I don't think we can call for the reasons that you state. If both the shovers had ~3,000 I think we could raise to try to isolate, but as is I think it's shove/fold.

I think the tighter range belongs to the smaller stack who has been tight, but that means the side pot is up for grabs. Read Ma's M is what, ~8-9 which widens his range somewhat and we're risking 1/4 of our stack. I don't generally like calling with AK; it has more power with first in vig, but, yeah, sure, shove to isolate. (I'd guess AJ/AQ/AK for Read Ma and T99/T/JJ/QQ for the other stack, we lose the main pot and split or win the side pot.)

 

[NineLions]

After some pokerstove calc., my first estimate was right, even against extremly loose ranges (22+, A7o+, A2s+, K7+, suited con., etc.) for both opponents, we are never getting more than around 37% to win while we are contributing far more than this to the pot (we are basically putting almost 45%). Plus, we are splitting some of the times instead of scooping since player 2 is very shortstacked, wich mitigates our risk to reward ratio.

QQ is a lot clearer, and is a definite call, as is JJ. TT is where I would draw the line, since player 2 is supposed to be a nitbox.

Oh sure, post statistics while I'm typing my answer to make me look like an gambling lunatic

 

[Cheetah]

I would re-raise all-in. Very unlikely a big stack will call. And we have a good chance to increase our stack without jeopardizing our tournament.

If we had to call all-in, I would fold.

1st bettor is unlikely to have AA or KK so AK either dominates him or we are coin flip.

The nit could have AK or a high pair. But as others said, if we win against the 1st bettor, we are freerolling.

To reach final table, you have to get lucky in races. I think this race is worth taking and we are only risking 1/4 of our stack.

 

[jeffred1111]

I would re-raise all-in. Very unlikely a big stack will call. And we have a good chance to increase our stack without jeopardizing our tournament.

If we had to call all-in, I would fold.

1st bettor is unlikely to have AA or KK so AK either dominates him or we are coin flip.

The nit could have AK or a high pair. But as others said, if we win against the 1st bettor, we are freerolling.

To reach final table, you have to get lucky in races. I think this race is worth taking and we are only risking 1/4 of our stack.

I disagree strongly with this: we are not wanting to take coinflips againt shorstacks in this situation since we have not a lot of chips to spare and can pick better spot (have you missed the cold hard stats I posted ?).

Very often, I hear people say you have to get lucky to go deep or you have to gamble with the slightest edge to advance, etc. Sure, it is true, but picking spots and pushing your greater edge (outplaying people) is far more lucrative than risking a lot with a very, very, very borderline +EV shove.

If we had 70k chips or 3k chips, sure. Now, we are not in such a hurry to gamble, plus we can resort to blind stealing since we have an imposing chipstack. We cannot win this thing yet (only 2/3 of the field is gone) while we can seriously hinder our chances of winning later if we gambool it up at the wrong time.

 

[SeanyJ]

POKERSTARS GAME #13185811059: TOURNAMENT #66049339, $10+$1 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL VII (150/300) - 2007/11/11 - 20:51:21 (ET)
Table '66049339 274' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: WinPokerWin (11290 in chips)
Seat 2: Fúria Jovem (23570 in chips)
Seat 3: cincykid23 (3330 in chips)
Seat 4: S CATES (1860 in chips)
Seat 5: Read Ma Lips (5270 in chips)
Seat 6: menu22 (8015 in chips)
Seat 7: McManusjs (2810 in chips)
Seat 8: SeanyJ24 (22760 in chips)
Seat 9: MarkinFL40 (34074 in chips)
WinPokerWin: posts the ante 25
Fúria Jovem: posts the ante 25
cincykid23: posts the ante 25
S CATES: posts the ante 25
Read Ma Lips: posts the ante 25
menu22: posts the ante 25
McManusjs: posts the ante 25
SeanyJ24: posts the ante 25
MarkinFL40: posts the ante 25
Fúria Jovem: posts small blind 150
cincykid23: posts big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SeanyJ24 [Ah Kc]
S CATES: folds
Read Ma Lips: raises 4945 to 5245 and is all-in
menu22: folds
McManusjs: calls 2785 and is all-in
SeanyJ24: folds
MarkinFL40: folds
WinPokerWin: folds
Fúria Jovem: folds
cincykid23: folds
*** FLOP *** [8c Kh Kd]
*** TURN *** [8c Kh Kd] [7h]
*** RIVER *** [8c Kh Kd 7h] [4d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Read Ma Lips: shows [Td As] (a pair of Kings)
McManusjs: shows [Qh Qc] (two pair, Kings and Queens)
McManusjs collected 6245 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6245 | Rake 0
Board [8c Kh Kd 7h 4d]
Seat 1: WinPokerWin (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Fúria Jovem (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: cincykid23 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: S CATES folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Read Ma Lips showed [Td As] and lost with a pair of Kings
Seat 6: menu22 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: McManusjs showed [Qh Qc] and won (6245) with two pair, Kings and Queens
Seat 8: SeanyJ24 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: MarkinFL40 folded before Flop (didn't bet)


Well I folded because I didn't feel like I wanted to be in a coinflip for this many chips at this point. I had a pretty good stack and felt I could wait for a better spot than this make some chips. Obviously I was kicking myself as soon as I saw the flop but that's poker I guess.