AJ vs aggro; $3+R after break

[ChuckTs]

I've been doing what looks to my opponents like stealing lately (lots of raises in LP with big hands). Villain is about 40/20/4 - very aggressive.

Stacks: - BB with 1885 - UTG with 16065 - UTG+1 with 7267 - UTG+2 with 4350 - UTG+3 with 16395 - UTG+4 with 16727 - CO with 13030 - BTN with 10363 - SB with 21300

Blinds: 100/200
Site: Pokerstars
Holecards:
- UTG+4 (Hero) is dealt A♣ J♠
Preflop:
- UTG+4 raises 400 to 600
- SB calls [500]
- Folds: 7
- Potsize: 1400
Flop: 5♦ Q♦ 2♣
- SB: checks
- UTG+4 bets [750]
- SB calls [750]
- Potsize: 2900
Turn: 8♦
- SB: checks
- UTG+4: checks
- Potsize: 2900
River: J♦
- SB bets [800]
- UTG+4 ...

Any options aside from folding?

 

[skoldpadda]

Calling and raising?

I'd probably call. But folding is a good option too.

 

[ChuckTs]

Well what does his bet represent?

 

[phatjose]

Looks like he is clearly representing the flush and is making a value bet. Since all you have is jacks, I really don't see how you can do anything but fold since your implied odds are like nil.

 

[OzExorcist]

The red cards aren't displaying suits for me, assume they're all suited?

If that's the case, the bet pretty much represents a flush, but could maybe be a badly played flopped set or a bluff as well.

Given your reads, it's possible that this is a bluff enough of the time to make it worth the 800 to look the villain up. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if they turned over a low flush either. So... difficult one?

 

[ol_sin]

well, without a good read, you gotta fold. maybe, you could have pushed harder, earlier. against really really aggressive players, I don't really tend to screw around. its pretty much an allin or nothing thing.

 

[ChuckTs]

Forgot about this.

His bet, in my mind at least, is basically a blocking bet in hopes of taking the pot down. His flop call can be anything (read: floating), and although I could very well could have him beat, I don't feel like committing more chips on the turn with a draw filling up as well.

I put him on something like 99 here, possibly with a diamond. A queen as well as an outright bluff is possible too. While there's no way we can win vs any diamond or queen, I decided to raise to push out the weaker flushes and represent the [Ad] that checked behind on the turn to get a free river.

- SB bets [800]
- UTG+4 raises [2000] to [2800]
- SB folds


Likey? No likey?

 

[tosborn]

I hadn't seen this yet. I like this Chuck. My thoughts when reading through the first part of the hand history were the following:

1- We can only win this hand by betting. Folding is the only other option. We are almost definately behind a flush. Villain is thinking the same thing.

2- We can probably throw out the VP$IP since this is a rebuy (I'm not sure how long he's been at your table, but, if he was here before break then it is useless).

3- His aggression factor tells me that he's not afraid to bet to try to win this hand.

4- We played the hand like we were obviously afraid of the turn flush card. Villain has seen this.

5- If I were in his spot and you reraised the river, I would need the A or K to make the call.

So in retrospect I think villain is semi-bluffing/bluffing a good percentage of the time. Since stacks are still really deep at this point I like the play.

 

[skoldpadda]

Read dependent of course. Could equally be a suck bet. Your move is good if he doesn't have it but won't win you more (but may fold a better hand). Folding is better if he has it and your losses are much greater if he has it and you bet.

Very read dependent and you could argue for all options.