AA early in tourney...difficult flop

[JimboJim]

This is about 3 hands into the tourney, no reads. Also, what do you think of my pre-flop play? Should I of pushed PF?


pokerstars Game #11269635291: Tournament #56614287, $3.00+$0.30 Hold'em No Limit
- Level I (10/20) - 2007/08/02 - 12:04:22 (ET)
Table '56614287 51' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: GRYPHON1892 (1420 in chips)
Seat 2: dustysage (1690 in chips)
Seat 3: aa77tt (1360 in chips)
Seat 4: studd0619 (1420 in chips)
Seat 5: Senlac66 (1390 in chips)
Seat 6: JimboJim711 (1500 in chips)
Seat 7: stewartmark (1720 in chips)
Seat 8: MR.NiceGuy66 (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: press48 (1490 in chips) is sitting out
Senlac66: posts small blind 10
JimboJim711: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to JimboJim711 [Ah Ac]
stewartmark: folds
MR.NiceGuy66: raises 40 to 60
press48: folds
GRYPHON1892: folds
dustysage: folds
aa77tt: calls 60
studd0619: folds
Senlac66: folds
JimboJim711: raises 240 to 300
MR.NiceGuy66: calls 240
aa77tt: calls 240
*** FLOP *** [Td 2d 3d]
JimboJim711: ????

 

[Irexes]

I like to shove there

You take it down a lot and you get a lot of calls from people with a face card of the flush suit and they hit 36% of the time which is great odds. Also JJ-KK will often follow along with or without the flush draw.

If they've flopped a set or the flush then good luck to them.

 

[stormswa]

there is 900 in the pot so you really cant just c-bet because you will be commited if someone shoves. So you either have to shove or check-fold and wait for better spot. I dont think check-folding is out of the question here seeing its so early in this tourney, but shoving of course is not bad either. Its a toss up.

 

[4Aces]

I would push and either take down the pot right there, or hope to get called by someone on a flush draw or an over pair. Like Irexs said though, if they have a set then so be it.

 

[joeeagles]

This is about 3 hands into the tourney, no reads. Also, what do you think of my pre-flop play? Should I of pushed PF?

I think PF is fine. Amazing how you get not 1 but 2 callers with a 15 BB raise.

Everyone likes zoooooded cards in these levels we play, so I wouldn't be surprised someone turns over Qd5d despite the 300 reraise, but thats only a small part of their range.

You don't have the Ad, so c-betting is ugly not only because of stack sizes but you'd be living in fear of another diamond coming. I don't dislike the shove, I think actually its the only thing that makes sense in this scenario. The only other option is check/folding.

I'd shove, if they have it so be it.

 

[Irexes]

Trouble with a check is that it will induce a bet from a huge range (except the flopped flush probably).

Adx should bet, as should JJ-KK. And to be honest I'd bet with any two if that was checked to me. If you are check folding you are saying that the bet is coming from someone with a hand better than AA more often than something <AA, is that the case?

And of course it could be followed by a check behind and the turn could bring a whole nother world of complications.

 

[joeeagles]

If you are check folding you are saying that the bet is coming from someone with a hand better than AA more often than something <AA, is that the case?

No, I don't think that's the case. The pot is huge so a bet is coming, but its more likely that it comes from a hand worse than AA I think. The check/folding is a line I understand because of the risk of going busto either to a made flush or a 4th diamond coming in since players don't fold easily at these levels, although odds for drawing to a 4th diamond are in your favor.

Even if I understand the check/fold reasoning, I prefer the shove.

 

[Irexes]

Sorry Joe, not knocking anyone, it just wouldn't enter my head to check-fold here. Anyone calling a push with a single diamond is making a really big mistake, and that's a good thing. It's a possible double up with huge fold equity and a very small chance of being behind when the chips go in, I'll take that every time

 

[JimboJim]

Sorry Joe, not knocking anyone, it just wouldn't enter my head to check-fold here. Anyone calling a push with a single diamond is making a really big mistake, and that's a good thing. It's a possible double up with huge fold equity and a very small chance of being behind when the chips go in, I'll take that every time

Well the only diamond draw that I would be afraid of is in a PP. Then it would only be about 58% in my favor. I would definantly consider folding this if I knew I was against that.


Well I'll disclose the results since Idon't think the results will affect discussion
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*** TURN *** [Td 2d 3d] [Qc]
*** RIVER *** [Td 2d 3d Qc] [Qd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
JimboJim711: shows [Ah Ac] (two pair, Aces and Queens)
MR.NiceGuy66: shows [Jd Kd] (a flush, King high)
MR.NiceGuy66 collected 280 from side pot
aa77tt: shows [4s As] (a pair of Queens)
MR.NiceGuy66 collected 4090 from main pot

 

[stormswa]

single diamond hands are not all we have to worry about guys, KT, QT, JT, T9 etc etc where they have one diamond and a pair. I dont think we are that much of a favorite against those hands. Maybe a coin flip, yes we are usaully ahead but I dont want to play for stacks 3rd hand of the tourney unless I have a real real strong hand.

 

[Irexes]

I think that a chance to double up this early in the tourney against a range that likely gives us a 58% chance or better and has a lot of fold equity is huge. I would suggest that there will be few opportunities as good as this and the longer the first double up takes the less value it has.

A massive difference in terms of coinflips if the other guy gets his chips in first, but you have the chance to make Adx JdJx QdQx and others make a big odds based mistake by calling and that's the name of the game.

That it is the 3rd hand doesn't come into it.

 

[JimboJim]

That it is the 3rd hand doesn't come into it.

Well the 3rd hand doesn't make that much of a difference in the percentages. I plugged in all the senerios in where at least 1 guy was drawing and it only changed by about 1%. I'm the favorite here unless someone flopped a flush.

 

[Irexes]

And of course you are drawing to runner-runner quads

 

[stormswa]

I think that a chance to double up this early in the tourney against a range that likely gives us a 58% chance or better and has a lot of fold equity is huge. I would suggest that there will be few opportunities as good as this and the longer the first double up takes the less value it has.

A massive difference in terms of coinflips if the other guy gets his chips in first, but you have the chance to make Adx JdJx QdQx and others make a big odds based mistake by calling and that's the name of the game.

That it is the 3rd hand doesn't come into it.

I disagree with this, im always happy to double up in 1st 3 levels but im happy with gaining 20% to my stack. your job in early stages is to survive.

Well the 3rd hand doesn't make that much of a difference in the percentages. I plugged in all the senerios in where at least 1 guy was drawing and it only changed by about 1%. I'm the favorite here unless someone flopped a flush.

you are a .20% favorite against KdTx, QdTx, JdTx.


not saying a push was not good play just saying a check/fold is not a bad one.

 

[joeeagles]

Sorry Joe, not knocking anyone, it just wouldn't enter my head to check-fold here. Anyone calling a push with a single diamond is making a really big mistake, and that's a good thing. It's a possible double up with huge fold equity and a very small chance of being behind when the chips go in, I'll take that every time

^^^^^^^^^^^^I agree with this. I realized reading my posts that I'm contradicting myself, but I want to clear it and I won't let results results change my opinion. I think shoving is the best move for reasons you already explained, and it is what I would do in this circumstance.

About the check/folding, its kind of a safe approach for the chance of going busto to a made flush. I wouldn't do it but I understand why some like it, they figure that they still have 1200 left by folding and are still alive. The problem with these $3/$4 tournies, which I play all the time, is that players, particularly in the first few rounds, tend to call with their suited hands no matter what. I'm not sure if this happens because early on all the donks are still in, or if its because the blinds are low, but that's how it is at these levels, just like this hand demonstrates. Villain here had no business calling a 300 reraise with KJs, position or not, neither did the other with A4s, but they did. Go figure. Anytime 3 suited cards come on the flop early in these tournies the danger of a made flush with a weak PF hand is real.

Usually in these MTT's the play gets better later on. Again I may be contradicting myself because you can say its better that they call a 300 reraise with KJs and A4s, and you're right. Only thing is that occasionally they get lucky and catch you good, I've had it happen to me often enough.

You're also right in being perplex about the check/fold, it's not an ideal strategy at all. I just meant that, while I wouldn't do it, I understand those that would especially with pot being 3-way and knowing what players call raises with at these levels.

You're not used to it because at the higher buy-ins where you play, although it isn't always great poker and still around 50% are below avg players, usually when faced with a 300 raise when blinds are 10/20, they'll throw away KJs and A4s.

 

[Irexes]

You're not used to it because at the higher buy-ins where you play, although it isn't always great poker and still around 50% are below avg players, usually when faced with a 300 raise when blinds are 10/20, they'll throw away KJs and A4s.

Cheers Joe, I think you have a point here in that a reraise preflop like in this hand would shake off a lot of the danger hands at a $33-$55 buyin. There are still plenty of people incapable of folding but they are probably fewer. In general I don't give a great deal of consideration to buy-in when answering posts as there's excellent and terrible players at most levels I've played at, probably an occassion where it's more relevant