A8 vs 3-bet AI from blinds; $16 turbo STT

[ChuckTs]

About five hands previous to this, I had doubled up for a second time with JJ (first was with KK), and started to get fairly pushy with my big stack. I was very TAG before that though, and villain is about 20/8/1.

What's villain's pushing range here and can we call?

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

UTG (t3980)
Hero (t5020)
SB (t1915)
BB (t2585)

Preflop: Hero is Button with

,

.
1 fold, Hero raises to t600, SB raises to t1890, 1 fold, Hero ...

 

[blankoblanco]

Getting 2:1, if I'm raising, I think I'm calling here. It's a crappy spot being on the bubble.. if he had a little more I could fold. As it stands, he's only got 9 BBs and a raise came from the big stack button short handed. I'd imagine shoving KQ, KJ, maybe QJ, likely any A including weaker ones, and any pair

But if I feel really awkward about calling either blind's shove, and on the bubble this is pretty awkward, I probably just fold it to begin with. We get into the habit of open-raising any A on the button just because it's "right", but sometimes I don't think the situation calls for it. 300 chips isn't going to increase your nice standing by much and a shove might make your life hell. I always try to look at the stacks and styles I'm raising into and have a plan

 

[ChuckTs]

Yeah, I basically raised standard instead of pushing (which I usually do with ~<10BB stacks) because I thought I could give myself room to fold if they came over the top, but didn't consider how good my odds would be here against the smaller stack...

 

[Blazing_Saddler]

Fold for me, although I have never played turbo's, so maybe you really do have to take more of a chance.

I look at it like this, If he has KJ , KQ, You really aren't that far in front, The only way you are in a great spot is if he has rag ace, or K8.


Maybe I am to tight for my own good sometimes, but the way I see it, you are still in a decent position if you fold.

 

[ChuckTs]

We're getting odds vs this range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.023% 30.61% 01.41% 46122111 2130853.00 { Ad8h }
Hand 1: 67.977% 66.56% 01.41% 100298935 2130853.00 { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }

(just barely; converted hand doesn't show that antes are also in effect)

I think combu's right. This is more a decision preflop of whether to get involved or not. I know that raising A8o OTB with a big stack is standard for me, but I don't think through past that sometimes (ie what happens if my opponents resteal/push).

 

[Blazing_Saddler]

Well if it is a case of If you raise, you call the re raise for sure, like he said, Then it is all in pre flop, as bad as that sounds, it is a better option than raising a 3 bet if you can't get away from it ?

 

[ChuckTs]

It probably is better to push/fold preflop. I generally push at the ~10BB effective stack level; anything more and I'm raising standard to give myself a chance to get out if I feel I can't call.

That's what I thought here, but I've trapped myself in with the favorable pot odds, I think.

 

[Blazing_Saddler]

Putting myself in his shoes, I wouldn't be re raising with anything less than a AJ to a PP, Unless I thought there was a real chance you would fold, but not everyone is so erm lets say tight just to be polite

 

[ChuckTs]

Well with my newfound big stack and the aggression that came with it, his range is a little looser considering that he knows my opening range is looser.

It is close, though, and villain's range doesn't have to be exactly what I stated. I don't mind a fold, but we are getting very good pot odds.

Results are that I called, and he showed TT which held.

 

[alan1983]

Money in pot already + villain being shortest stack on bubble + you having been aggressive lately = i call it.

 

[pedroman7]

Your still in good shape if you call and your getting good odds to call. So I think it was a good call and hope to get lucky.

 

[joeeagles]

I don't see how this could have played out any differently since he had TT. It's pretty much a given he would have called a shove so it makes no difference. I do get what you're saying though with shoving rather than raising vs stacks 10BB's<, or at least raising only when stacks are > 10BB's.

This is just something that you couldn't avoid here, because on the button with A8 in a 4-way and on the bubble with a big stack there is no way you fold. Its part of the small pot strategy that is very effective and a winner in the long run in these STT's.

Occasionally though this happens also, to find someone in the blinds with a hand worth pushing or calling a push, but you'll take down the blinds and increase your stack more often than not in this position, and you're perfectly aware of this. In the end, especially for someone like you who plays these STT's all the time, the only results that matter are those in the long run, and that's where this strategy certainly pays dividends.

The whole discussion about this hand is therefore centered around the fact that instead of raising, the proper play was shoving. In this case though, there would be no difference.

 

[ChuckTs]

I don't see how this could have played out any differently since he had TT. It's pretty much a given he would have called a shove so it makes no difference. I do get what you're saying though with shoving rather than raising vs stacks 10BB's<, or at least raising only when stacks are > 10BB's.

Basically if our opponents' stacks are significantly larger than 10BBs, the risk:reward is too high to be shoving, and a smaller standard raise is the better play.

The whole discussion about this hand is therefore centered around the fact that instead of raising, the proper play was shoving. In this case though, there would be no difference.

But that's taking the results into consideration which of course don't matter.

Thanks for the responses everyone, this is definitely a toughy and I think had I paid more attention I probably would have just shoved PF.

 

[joosebuck]

dead money prices us into most ranges.

low pairs/mid pairs/stronger & weaker aces/high pairs.. i think this is a call