A10 near the bubble

[Gunner57]

Situation:
25 people remain in tourney, you are placed 19 and 18 cash.
Your M= 8

3rd posiiton (has 56BB) Raises to 3BB
Cutoff (has 28BB) calls
You- BB (12BB) have A 10 off.

Do you call, Fold, or shove?

I will say what I did after a few replys and see what comes out. Thanks.

 

[jbbb]

No fold equity, you don't wanna be gambling in this spot. (ie fold).
Probably want to post in the tourny hand analysis section for some better responses.

 

[MuscleMan76]

The big stack is almost never folding to a shove here.
So unless you have a read that both villains are really bad and will fold to a squeeze/shove, this is an easy fold. Even a read that suggests that they will call with a hand that you are dominating, it's probably not worth the risk at this point.

I say wait for a better spot, either where you open the betting or have a better hand for a 3-bet shove.

 

[cjatud2012]

Is this live or online? If it's online then you really need to post the actual hand history. Also it's really impossible to give you a good answer without any reads.

But anyway I am usually shoving and happy about getting called.

 

[seanDCFC]

I would shove this, the big stacks are likely to call with worse than A10.

 

[rllngn]

What is the buy-in amount, is it small or is it some of your last cash, plus like the others say there are too many other factors.

 

[Shufflin]

I shove, but I've been bubbling a lot with AT, AJ so maybe this is wrong...

 

[Shufflin]

Oops, I didn't notice the call -- makes it easier to fold...

 

[cjatud2012]

Oops, I didn't notice the call -- makes it easier to shove...

fyp

 

[fletchdad]

Hard to say just on the info provided.

Yea, if the call was a raise, I might fold, but I might shove here too, reads would make all the difference, otherwise easy shove.
You dont win MTTs without taking risks, and you sure dont win by passing up +ev opportunities.

 

[Gunner57]

Situation:
25 people remain in tourney, you are placed 19 and 18 cash.
Your M= 8

3rd posiiton (has 56BB) Raises to 3BB
Cutoff (has 28BB) calls
You- BB (12BB) have A 10 off.

Do you call, Fold, or shove?

I will say what I did after a few replys and see what comes out. Thanks.

Sorry for not including more info on first post:

So the buy in is a 30 rebuy.

The Raiser (in 3rd pos) is LAG
The caller I dont have any relaible information. He has folded the last few hands, could be tight or have marginal hand.

I have been playing Tight so I have some fold equity however I dont believe I can get the Raiser out by going all in and then the caller will have odds for a call.

If I were to get a raise (from the caller) I would for sure fold but since he just called puts me at questionable spot.

The reason why I ask is because I have been on the bubble a lot lately (about 10 of my last 15 tourneys) so I am getting close but I am having trouble punching through.

I am comfortable with my play when I am >20BB and <5BB but it is at the 8BB<15BB I think I need work. So any thoughts will help. Thanks.

 

[takethepain]

Its marginal but I would shove. The money in the middle represents a sizeable % of your stack, and a laggy player with a big chip stack could easily be making this play with a hand weaker than A-10. The caller complicates things, but at this stage of the tournament I still think you are best off taking your chances.

 

[NascarFanSS]

No fold equity, you don't wanna be gambling in this spot. (ie fold).
Probably want to post in the tourny hand analysis section for some better responses.

The big stack is almost never folding to a shove here.
So unless you have a read that both villains are really bad and will fold to a squeeze/shove, this is an easy fold. Even a read that suggests that they will call with a hand that you are dominating, it's probably not worth the risk at this point.

I say wait for a better spot, either where you open the betting or have a better hand for a 3-bet shove.

I agree with these guys. I think if you shove your getting called by both more than likely and probably gonna be dominated. Could get lucky, but a better opportunity could be just a fold away.

Its marginal but I would shove. The money in the middle represents a sizeable % of your stack, and a laggy player with a big chip stack could easily be making this play with a hand weaker than A-10. The caller complicates things, but at this stage of the tournament I still think you are best off taking your chances.

Guess that depends on how badly he wants to make ITM.

 

[fletchdad]

Everyone will have their own priorities, but this short, playing safe just to scrape in the money, or putting it on the line and bust out or increase my stack, I choose the latter.

 

[takethepain]

I agree with these guys. I think if you shove your getting called by both more than likely and probably gonna be dominated. Could get lucky, but a better opportunity could be just a fold away.




Guess that depends on how badly he wants to make ITM.

Yes but scraping into the money should NEVER be the goal for an MTT. I am happier knowing i went out on the bubble fighting, then limping ITM with almost no chance of making the final few spots. A10 is a big hand against a LAG player, even one UTG when he has loads of chips.

So pushing really determine on whether he wants to make the money, or whether he wants to make the real money. He has 8M left, not that much room to maneuver with.

 

[jbbb]

Yes but scraping into the money should NEVER be the goal for an MTT. I am happier knowing i went out on the bubble fighting, then limping ITM with almost no chance of making the final few spots. A10 is a big hand against a LAG player, even one UTG when he has loads of chips.

So pushing really determine on whether he wants to make the money, or whether he wants to make the real money. He has 8M left, not that much room to maneuver with.

Ofcourse our goal is to win, not just cash, but there must be better oppertunities than this. If you are called by only one of the opponents, you could still be only 60% to win. (with a lot of dead money in the pot, this could be a good calculated gamle). If you're called by both (depending on the buyin) it's reduced a lot further to about ~35%.
If the players to your left are tight and/or similar chip stack to you (so you have lots of fold equity) I would fold knowing I can quite easily steal in the next few hands.

IMO its marginal and would like to know the best (mathimatical) way to play this.

 

[Gunner57]

Thanks all. I think it basicly comes down to if I want to play to make it to the money or if I want to shove and hope.

What I ended up doing was calling (as I knew an all in would not produce folds). This left the pot with 9.5BB and me with 9BB.

The flop came out 2 10 2 (Rainbow).

I shoved, initial raiser folded, and the cut off called with pocket 10s (he flopped the boat).

Thanks again for all of your feedback. It has been a hand I have learned from. (Helped me fold AJ last night against early caller near bubble who had KK).

 

[cjatud2012]

Calling is about the worst thing you can do - you caught a miracle flop to be honest (or a nightmare flop after seeing results lol). What if the flop comes K92? What do you do then? You've committed 25% of your stack and there's no way you can continue. Even if the flop is KT2 you can't continue.

 

[aaron_jd]

Yeah, if it was just you and the initial raiser, I'd shove it in, but because of the prior call, I'd muck it.

 

[spiderman637]

Call the 2bb, and see the flop...Do not fold, do not shove...
Well if the raise was 4bb or 5bb, it was fold...but still it would be inappropriate to fold without having a read on ur villian...

 

[cjatud2012]

Call the 2bb, and see the flop...Do not fold, do not shove...
Well if the raise was 4bb or 5bb, it was fold...but still it would be inappropriate to fold without having a read on ur villian...

Calling is about the worst thing you can do - you caught a miracle flop to be honest (or a nightmare flop after seeing results lol). What if the flop comes K92? What do you do then? You've committed 25% of your stack and there's no way you can continue. Even if the flop is KT2 you can't continue.

^^ see above, calling a raise then having to fold a flop where your SPR is less than 1 is a pretty awful decision.

 

[midgetfactory]

my position on this would be folding as the big stack will surely call a shove, wait for a better position to get your money in

 

[Gunner57]

For a call to be profitable I need to win 21% of the time (getting 3.75:1 odds). Calculating the odds of what I am up against:

Players at Best villians could hold:
pocket 10-JJ, and AQ-A10= I only win 4-18% of the time with A10
the worst range up against
under pair and KJ, K10, A9-Ax which would put me at 33% win.

I am only just learning about SPR so I dont know much but if I am not mistaken very low of SPR is telling me I should shove or fold since I will have no ability to play after the flop (call here not an option).

Based on the range of hands I can put my opponents on, I think I would be slightly EV+ for a call. If I think a shove will produce at least 1 fold, then I should shove.

Because of my position, chip stack, I dont think I can get a fold with a shove, and since calling is not an option with my low SPR, I would need to fold. I would also want a higher EV and win % for all my chips anyway.

Any flaws in this reasoning?

Thank you all so far for your posts!