A,Q on the exact bubble

fcumred

fcumred

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PokerStars Game #19150718344: Tournament #98354171,
$4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (300/600) - 2008/07/27 - 17:56:25 (ET)
Table '98354171 10' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: jorandeman (31042 in chips)
Seat 2: 94ssimpala (8000 in chips)
Seat 3: Air Jodoin23 (9212 in chips)
Seat 5: switch0723 (4230 in chips)
Seat 7: aplupe (5499 in chips)
Seat 8: Matze SHL (16155 in chips)
jorandeman: posts the ante 50
94ssimpala: posts the ante 50
Air Jodoin23: posts the ante 50
switch0723: posts the ante 50
aplupe: posts the ante 50
Matze SHL: posts the ante 50
switch0723: posts small blind 300
aplupe: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to switch0723 [Ah Qh]
Matze SHL: folds
jorandeman: raises 1200 to 1800
94ssimpala: folds
Air Jodoin23: folds
switch0723:????

This is one of the 180 man sng's where 10-18th place just get double their buy in back, the real money is at the final table.

In the above hand, im 95% sure i have the best hand although my shove will definately be called, my current chip position is 16th out of the 19 remaining

Whats the best play here?? To shove and take a 60% shot at doubling up and making a go at reaching final table, while also taking a 40% chance of not cashing

or

to fold and fold to about an 80% chance of cashing and kinda giving up on a final table?

I would go straight over the top and raise him. See what he does then.

You are on the bubble so you'd still have about 2.5k and no blinds to pay for at least 5 hands. In that time someone else will fall...
 
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switch0723

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^^^ huh? even a min raise over the top leaves me with only 1k left behind
 
robwhufc

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^^^ huh? even a min raise over the top leaves me with only 1k left behind

and

Opponent has 31K chips, he's not conceivably going to fold to any bet here when it will only cost a max of 2,400 chips to call.

Thechoice here is quite obvious - fold and you should cash, but you are going to have work to do to move up into the bigger money, or all-in when you could be knocked out 1 short of the money, or you could double up to 9K and be back in the mix. The fact that the pot is 1K each hand, and you have fold equity against all but the big stack would see me folding here, and then pushing relentlessly once bubble breaks (and probably end up all in with worse odds than you have here).
 
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shinedown.45

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lolz, didn't read it all but i assume the first paragraph some it up nicely....

anyway I can't beleive this thread has got to the point where i want it to die due to the tons of people posting in it for what i can only assume is post count matters.

Prime example being the post above which i can't even begin to understand
TBH switch, there are new members here, and whether you think it's spamming or not, they are well thought out spam posts.
I had also been new at one time and would have said "call" at that time, but throuout my time here, there have been alot of replies that I have learned from.
Not everybody joining CC are going to be pros switch.
 
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chadherczeg

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I think greg raymer said it best in his bluff interview. They asked him what he would do in this position with pocket aces being the shortest stack at his table but not the shortest in the tourney right on the bubble. He said it depends on what you are playing for. If you are playing to cash your best bet is to fold aces and not play a hand until after the bubble because the others are more likely to have to make a move sooner and keep from getting unlucky. BUT if you are playing to win, and could care less about cashing then of course you push in this situation. It all depends on what your goal is. If your goal is to always have a positive cash, then fold, if your goal is to always win then push. GL on the felt and hope this helps you.
 
robwhufc

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I think greg raymer said it best in his bluff interview. They asked him what he would do in this position with pocket aces being the shortest stack at his table but not the shortest in the tourney right on the bubble.

Pocket aces? Not AQ?

OK, thanks.
 
ugotkicked

ugotkicked

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Did you say Bubble, I FOLD..AQ or should I say ACE HAG.
AQ is to me one of the worst hands to be holding at the bubble
of any tourney. I INSTA FOLD ACE QUEEN..it's junk!!!
 
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switch0723

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TBH switch, there are new members here, and whether you think it's spamming or not, they are well thought out spam posts.
I had also been new at one time and would have said "call" at that time, but throuout my time here, there have been alot of replies that I have learned from.
Not everybody joining CC are going to be pros switch.

tbh, my post has now been taken out of context.

The posts i was referring to have now been deleted on the basis they had no meaning and were obvious spam posts, so my post no longer makes sense. :)
 
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ok mighty poker god! if half the people are wrong and you know the anwser why are you even asking? you have a bigtime chip on your shoulder and I cant wait to see you at the table so I can knock it off! $1000 for ace 7 of 10 flop at stars? haha! show proof of your BR first then we will talk hotshot. your a blow hard is all you are! I say flatcall, you can go read another book. FULLTILT FR tuesday! see you there champ. ahh chump
 
shinedown.45

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ok mighty poker god! if half the people are wrong and you know the anwser why are you even asking? you have a bigtime chip on your shoulder and I cant wait to see you at the table so I can knock it off! $1000 for ace 7 of 10 flop at stars? haha! show proof of your BR first then we will talk hotshot. your a blow hard is all you are! I say flatcall, you can go read another book. FULLTILT FR tuesday! see you there champ. ahh chump
The players who had said they would flat-call are in the wrong line of thinking, making a flat-call commits you to the pot, therefore in this situation, you are in push/fold scenario.
It doesn't make sense to call, when you'll leave so little behind that you might as well just sitout and let the blinds eat the rest of your stack.
 
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PlayedYou73

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jorandeman looks like he's just putting pressure on the blinds to fold given the size of his chip stack

A suited Ace/Queen is in the top range of playable hands...i'd shove in a hefty bet and see what happens...if your re-raised...shove all in. Yes its a gamble, but you have to expect to be bullied by someone like that. Even if he has a pair...you've got a 45% chance or so of winning provided he doesn't have pocket kings.
 
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switch0723

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your a blow hard is all you are! I say flatcall, you can go read another book. FULLTILT FR tuesday! see you there champ. ahh chump

um.
 

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Henreiman

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If your bankroll can absorb the lost buyin (forget your ego), then make the call and try to go into the money in good chip position. If you need double the buyin, just fold and take the cash, look to double up once you have money in the bank
 
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gmoney719

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just fold and move up the money latter good luck
 
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PDMike425

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i'd wait, you're the small blind and then another 7 hands of just ante's at most the next time around, you'd have 3500 before blinds, with being so close to the money, i would've waited, got the money and then gone nuts after that. better luck next time
 
vincemcnabb

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In my opinion, it's all about why you entered the tournament. Were you shooting to squeak into the money, or get a ft? Also, I think it also is about your bankroll. If $4.40 isn't a huge hit to your br, then I could consider playing it. If it was me, I wouldn't go all in, I would just call and see the flop, because if you don't hit, just fold and squeak into the money.
 
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:eek: in this situation i think u have to make a decision that you will be happy with. if u just call the bet then u are more then likely going to be put all in by the raiser. if u shove then he is likely calling u. so it comes back to the question of are u playing to win or are u playing to cash? also u have to figure what the chances are of u getting dealt a better hand before u run out of chips. with the info that ive been given on this one i would put it in every time with this chipstack granted i dont know how the raiser has been playing but vs. his assumed range i would think ure hand is a monster favorite. :eek:
 
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kidpoker410

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" give a poker player a fish he will eat for a day.....teach him to "not" fish and he will eat for a lifetime "

nice quote btw.
 
Dwilius

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A surprising amount of comments in this thread, im amazed it generated so much

and this was the 26th post, its now over 70 :confused:. I've never seen so many in HA, and its push/fold Q.
 
kevinfromhb

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I kind of have to agree with syfted that in this situation, on-line poker sucks. There are too many variables to think of, and no physical factors to glean from. You have a good pre flop hand, that is without question. And about the noly hand I wouldn't want to play against would be pocket kings or aces. But the fact of the matter is, the real question you have to weigh, is how important to your bankroll is finishing the good side of the bubble is to you. If it matters, fold. If not...that's why they call it GAMBLING.
 
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-newbielicious-

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u should fold EVERYTHING except for Aces or maybe kings when u are facing a bubble situation... it is too easy to get knocked out instead of just being patient a few more hands then making some money off of it...
 
pfb8888

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easy decision

its easy to make the final table you have to get past the bubble...if you know you are getting called then whats your best % aq vs aj? most likely your behind to pair or 60 % fav so your out 4 of 10 ? get into money first then go all in every hand if you want to build back up..
 
PurgatoryD

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A surprising amount of comments in this thread, im amazed it generated so much
and this was the 26th post, its now over 70
LOL! In the beginning, I wasn't considering replying... but then the post kept going and going... and then people were commenting about it going and going... and now it's a monster with a life of its own. How can anyone resist getting in on that action?

But in all seriousness, the correct answer is this: If your bankroll is $4, fold. If your bankroll is $100, push all in.

As for the values in between, it depends on how "real" your bankroll is. Some might say their bankroll is $4, but then risk it all only to pull out their credit card and deposit $100 if they lose. In that case, isn't your bankroll really $104?

Anyhow, fun thread, and it looks like you have a ton of answers to choose from! BTW, I hope this post didn't offend anyone (especially you switch), but by the end I was LOL so I just had to comment. Poker players have a sense of humor, right?!

Good luck at the tables,
dave
 
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