99 on a 222 flop - call this push?

[bubbasbestbabe]

Just moved to new table. No reads on anyone.


Stage #645255120 Tourney ID 1412930 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit $200 - 2007-02-16 18:44:00 (ET)
Table: 63 (Real Money) Seat #3 is the dealer
Seat 1 - RAREARTH ($8005 in chips)
Seat 2 - BERZERKER ($26785 in chips)
Seat 3 - SPIT_FIRE ($5720 in chips)
Seat 4 - LGR ($2750 in chips)
Seat 5 - KINGOF8S ($12372.50 in chips)
Seat 6 - AINAMANO ($14415 in chips)
Seat 7 - STICK1294 ($4485 in chips)
Seat 8 - KLITKAT ($19205.50 in chips)
Seat 9 - SPURIOUS ($18825 in chips)
RAREARTH - Ante $25
BERZERKER - Ante $25
SPIT_FIRE - Ante $25
LGR - Ante $25
KINGOF8S - Ante $25
AINAMANO - Ante $25
STICK1294 - Ante $25
KLITKAT - Ante $25
SPURIOUS - Ante $25
LGR - Posts small blind $100
KINGOF8S - Posts big blind $200
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to KLITKAT [9s 9d]
AINAMANO - Raises $600 to $600
STICK1294 - Folds
KLITKAT - Calls $600
SPURIOUS - Calls $600
RAREARTH - Folds
BERZERKER - Folds
SPIT_FIRE - Folds
LGR - Folds
KINGOF8S - Calls $400
*** FLOP *** [2s 2c 2d]
KINGOF8S - Checks
AINAMANO - All-In $13790

 

[t1riel]

The raise UTG worries me. It quite possible your opponent has Pocket Queens or Jacks. I would fold. Granted, you have no reads. Also, othe rplayers on your table have played against this player before you got there and they folded to the raise. That should tell you something.

 

[Bombjack]

People often do this with AK.

 

[ChuckTs]

No reads, you gotta fold. I fold PF with no reads. Actually probably not with the stacks so deep, but post flop you have to toss it.

It doesn't look like AA or KK to me since he surely would have checked to let some people catch up a little bit or at least think their 99s are good, but you never know. It's just too much to risk with such a deep stack.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

i would curse and fold. sure, he might have AK, but 10/10+ is also a huge part of his range

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

Sorry but folding with a flopped full house is nuts. That's like folding quad Ks because the flop came A K K. Are you going to do that even knowing your opponent has an A because you are afraid of quad As?

You are talking about folding a made boat. Yes he could have higher. He could also have lower. If he has a PP he will be going allin. With 9s there are only 5 higher pairs that can beat me. But there are also 7 pairs under me that I can beat. And if he has just high overcards that would be a whole 'nother ballgame.

 

[alan1983]

I dont think its "nuts" to fold it. Its not like you have 89 and are folding a 889 flop in fear of 99.
Theyre saying reads because many people wouldnt raise with 55 or 44. When he raises preflop that makes the bigger pairs more likely.

And 90% of time i see Ak doing this too. Thats why i think its read dependant to see if that guy would put his tourney on line for AK.

It could be either way, and 88 77 AK are surely possible, but id personnally fold.

 

[ChuckTs]

Full houses can be much different ie having a PP and flopping XXX for a FH, and having XX and flopping XYY. They both have completely different strengths.

Yes, his overbet is very uninviting (looks like AK to me), but he very well could have TT+. You don't have any reads on him and he's raised utg. We have to give him merit for a hand. Not only that but look how little you've invested, and how terrible your pot odds are. Even with AK, he's still ~%30 to win here.

I'd say his range for this is 88+ and AQs+. Even that's giving him a wider than average range for an unknown player's utg raise.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.105% 52.95% 02.16% 33022 1347.00 { 77+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 44.895% 42.74% 02.16% 26654 1347.00 { 9c9d }

We're basically on the short end of a coinflip if that range is accurate.
I just don't want to gamble my whole stack when I'm sitting this deep in chips and don't have to.

 

[RideN2Aces]

I dont think folding is nuts. Could easily have you owned.
It looks like a bigger pocket pair to me , two overs probably wouldnt play it that reckless since this is a $200 tourney.
Calling UTG raises with medium pockets is a tricky spot to play on the flop when it looks like its in your favor. IMO, you were looking for a set it didnt come ,get out of the way.
Would you get all your chips in there if the flop was 2,4,7.

btw,how did the rest of the hand play out?

 

[BorisMcN]

I like the fold here, even if he is holding two overcards, and not the overpair he is representing. I think by preserving your stack you can pick a better time to mix it up with another big stack.

With your M around 30 you have plenty of time to find a better position to increase your placing.

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

Well being the wild and crazy player that I am, here are the results.

*** FLOP *** [2s 2c 2d]
KINGOF8S - Checks
AINAMANO - All-In $13790
KLITKAT - Calls $13790
SPURIOUS - Folds
KINGOF8S - Folds
*** TURN *** [2s 2c 2d] [Qs]
*** RIVER *** [2s 2c 2d Qs] [5s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
AINAMANO - Shows [Ad As] (Full house, twos full of aces)
KLITKAT - Shows [9s 9d] (Full house, twos full of nines)
AINAMANO Collects $30305 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($30305)
Board [2s 2c 2d Qs 5s]
Seat 1: RAREARTH Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 2: BERZERKER Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 3: SPIT_FIRE (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 4: LGR (small blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 5: KINGOF8S (big blind) Folded on the FLOP
Seat 6: AINAMANO won Total ($30305) All-In HI$30305) with Full house, twos full of aces [Ad As - B:2s,B:2d,B:2c,P:As,P:Ad]
Seat 7: STICK1294 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 8: KLITKAT HI:lost with Full house, twos full of nines [9s 9d - B:2s,B:2d,B:2c,P:9s,P:9d]
Seat 9: SPURIOUS Folded on the FLOP


I was left with about 5500 in chips. Built it back up and walked away with $13 for 27th.

 

[dj11]

Hate rowing a dingy tweenst the battleships in pearl harbor.

 

[TheRifle]

Raise under the gun, would have to put villain on a high pair, or high ace.

With four players in post-flop, I suppose its a reasonable play on his part. (Personally, I think a pot+ bet would be correct here.). With 99, its a fold for me; possibly a call with QQ; probable call with KK,AA.