88 vs all-in and coldcall/re-raise

[F Paulsson]

There were 350 or so players remaining at this point in the tournament out of 1300. It's the $22 10k guaranteed. Average stack is about 12k. I have 15 and have both villains covered (by only a little in the case of CO)

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (9 handed)

UTG+1 (t7480)
Hero (t15096)
MP2 (t6985)
MP3 (t5680)
CO (t14630)
Button (t3610)
SB (t13795)
BB (t5850)
UTG (t16818)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with [8h], [8d].
2 folds, Hero raises to t1800, 2 folds, CO calls t1800, Button raises to t3560 (all-in), 2 folds, Hero calls t1760, CO raises to t5370, Hero calls t1760.

The all-in guy is not really a concern for me here. If he has an overpair, I'm in trouble but I can't really give him credit for always having 99+. So on to the guy I'm worried about: CO.

When he cold-called, I took that to mean mid pocket pair or AK/KQs or something. But what the hell does that raise mean? I have to call, right? I mean, limp-reraising I know about. But cold-call re-raising?

So. Call? I did, anyway. Even if I'm up against a weirdly played AA/KK/QQ I'm getting close to odds to chase a set at this point.

Flop: (t14550) [2d], [4h], [9c] (3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets t9260 (All-In), Hero...

Calling will effectively put me all-in (I'll have 500 left or so). The pot is big at this point (34k) and it's ~9k for me to call. His play so far is at least semi-consistent with a small/medium pocket pair. I can beat most of those.

But it's effectively my tournament life on the line. If I fold, I'll be a bit short of an average stack, and if I take this pot down I'll be up there with the chip leaders.

 

[joeeagles]

Weird, why would he minreraise (an amount he KNOWS you have to call), then go all-in? I don't understand his line. At first, it appears he wants to get more out of you, then it looks like he wants you to fold.

I'm trying to put some logic into this, what hand would this be consistent with? After the flop you checked, if he has an AK or AQ, he should also check hoping you're trying to check this down to river because of the all-in villain. It doesn't sound right. I don't think he'd do this with AK or AQ. This play looks more consistent with him having an overpair like QQ, JJ, and he doesn't want you in till the river because he's scared you might catch up. It could also explain his minreraise, where he's just testing you to see if you shove or just smooth call, which isn't a bad move if he does have a hand like jacks.

I'm still not sure all this makes sense, not only, you could be right and I'm wrong that he has AK. I don't trust this though, I think I'd fold my 8's and just call myself a dummy if I'm wrong and you are, indeed, ahead here.

 

[Irexes]

I really don't like the preflop action.

Your initial raise is good but fron then on you are geting sucked into trouble by degrees, and you want to avoid situations where your tourney life is on the line with 88 post-flop.

I think you can fold this as he's either got an overpair, trips or AK. I'll go with the overpair.

Only possible other option is to shove in response to the Button's reraise preflop, hopefully isolating him and picking up the cut-offs initial call with the pot (looks like it wouldn't have worked though ). That's pretty results oriented advice though.

(incidentally I was in this MTT as well, came 200ish, bound to bump into you soon)

 

[joeeagles]

I keep looking at this hand.

FP, I think you meant the pot is 24k, right? It can't be 34k.

 

[skoldpadda]

I agree wit Irexes assessment. Having such a huge stack, why put yourself in such a marginal situation OOP. I'd limp, given the probable action after my limp, I'd easily fold.

 

[ChuckTs]

I've seen more and more players cold-call AA-QQ lately...just a thought. Minreraise really wants a call...that's definitely not an isolation raise :/

 

[F Paulsson]

I keep looking at this hand.

FP, I think you meant the pot is 24k, right? It can't be 34k.

Sort of a typo. I meant that my stack would be 34k if I call and win - i.e. it would be 34k if I called.

Rex: Where do you fold preflop? I'm trying to find it, but I'm not sure I can. Hlap plez!

Skoldpadda: My stack isn't that huge anymore, tbh. The HH as displayed doesn't show antes, but I believe they were at $50, making me sit at an M of just about 12. I understand what you're saying though, just making that distinction.

Now, on a related note - and something I wanted to get at after getting some thoughts on this hand in particular - is there a point in a tournament where I should be looking for accumulation rather than survival? It's starting to approach the money (I think it paid 180 people or so) and getting a huge stack by the time we get near the bubble must surely be a monster advantage. How much - if at all - should my willingness to take risks (like this one, even if it doesn't have to be precisely this one)
increase here?

Let me rephrase it.

I'm being offered about 3:1 on my money. If I'm 26% to win, should I gamble? Early on in the tournament - high Ms and all of that - it could be seen as a fold if I consider myself one of the best players in the tournament (bwahahaha yeah right) but the extra leverage of a big stack can propel me very deep into the tournament if used wisely.

I'm basically risking my tournament life now in order to go really deep the times I make it - even if it's a minority of the times. In my head, it's kinda like implied odds, if that makes sense. Even if I'm just break-even on a call, my tournament EV will be very positive because I expect to make back a lot more than just the chips I pick up in this pot if I can have a big stack on the bubble.

Make sense? I need to think some more about this.

 

[mrsnake3695]

I think the "mistake" pre-flop was after the short stack's all-in. That's an easy call but the problem is you have a player yet to act after you. What do you do if he re-raises after you call (which is what he did)? If you plan on calling a reraise the you should probably shove here after short stacks, all-in.

Look at it from villans point of view, you open raise, then shove reraise after short stacks all-in. What can he put you on and what would he have to have to call. Open raise, reraise shove with someone all-in screams QQ or higher or maybe AK. He can really only call with AA or KK, althoough of course we know that on-line alot of players will call with less.

However with your line or open raise and then simple call short stacks all-in tells villan you are possibly weak (which you are).

So you want to isolate the short stack if possible. 88 won't play well at all against villan if you don't flop a set.

This is what i suggest if you plan on calling a raise from villan. if you would probably fold on a raise from villan then you should fold before he acts. If you had a larger stack you might play it differently but with your stack size you can't afford to get mixed up with average hands giving yourself tough decisions for most of all of your chips.

To me, it's either fold or push after shortstacks push. Villan said he had something he likes and shortstack has something he likes (he obviously doens't expect both of you to flod to his bet). Not the best situation with 88.

As for if there is a time to gamble to get chips? Yes.

Late in tourneys the blinds start moving up very high. You may be playing with 30 to 35 times the BB, not play a hand for 10 mins and find yourself only 12 times the BB all of a sudden. At this point the tourney becomes a lot hand dependent. Calling is rarely the right play. It's almost always fold or raise. Almost any hand you get involved in will you will be making fold/shove decisions (or calling all-in reraises).

In other words when you make a decision pre-flop to get involved in a hand you must decide ahead of time if you are willing to get all your chips in with it.

 

[Irexes]

Sorry, FP.

In saying I didn't like the preflop action I didn't mean it could be folded preflop, just that it gave enough information to enable me to fold postflop.

And I agree with Snake that a shove preflop in response to the minraise is the "better" gamble move.

Your cash game is showing through in this thread re the pot and implied odds, though I think you are asking the right questions. I'm off to work but I'd like to come back to the risk v reward theme later. For the moment though you cannot stress too much being the person who gets chips in the middle first when it's time to push hard for a big stack. This isn't one of those times for me.

 

[F Paulsson]

Risk vs reward is a much better way of putting it than "kinda like implied odds!" I was halfway to bed already when I wrote that. What I'm going for - as you seem to have seen through already - is that perhaps a coinflip is very worth taking here. Perhaps even slightly less than a coinflip. I can't really give numbers for it because it depends directly on my skill with a big stack but for shits and giggles:

1. I expect to accumulate chips regardless stacksize. My skill is great enough for that.
2. I expect to accumulate more chips if I have a big stack near the bubble.

=> The difference in chips accumulated because of a big stack near the bubble can be said to be my "implied" chips in the case that I win this pot.

But yeah, it's a risk vs. reward thing.

I used up quite a bit of my timebank on this decision, btw. My thinking was like a broken record repeat of

"wtf does he have? I'm getting 3:1. He'll have AK/smaller PP/I will draw out on my two outer more often than 25%. Wtf does he have? I'm getting 3:1..."

But the concensus seems to be to fold somewhere. I still can't really get myself to fold anywhere preflop, so it must be a check/fold on the flop then. Hrm.

 

[shinedown.45]

back to OP, you have invested alot into this pot already and are getting the odds to call this, but IMO, CO has AA period, I've seen this play too many times by villians, I have played this way.
A fold is in order here, you are beat.

 

[tosborn]

Forget pot odds when calling an all-in for your stack in tournament play.

You only get one opportunity for your tourney life. I like to think of them as a singular event. When you get to a decision like this you should switch your thinking a little. Ask the following question:

How likely are my ahead of villains range?

This is the only question that matters now. To call an all-in you must feel like you are ahead of villains range or be so shortstacked that it doesn't matter.

On the other hand you can push with lesser hands because of fold equity.

I'd like to address this in greater detail, but, I'm at work and have things to do.

 

[joeeagles]

Risk vs reward is a much better way of putting it than "kinda like implied odds!" I was halfway to bed already when I wrote that. What I'm going for - as you seem to have seen through already - is that perhaps a coinflip is very worth taking here. Perhaps even slightly less than a coinflip. I can't really give numbers for it because it depends directly on my skill with a big stack but for shits and giggles:

1. I expect to accumulate chips regardless stacksize. My skill is great enough for that.
2. I expect to accumulate more chips if I have a big stack near the bubble.

=> The difference in chips accumulated because of a big stack near the bubble can be said to be my "implied" chips in the case that I win this pot.

But yeah, it's a risk vs. reward thing.

I used up quite a bit of my timebank on this decision, btw. My thinking was like a broken record repeat of

"wtf does he have? I'm getting 3:1. He'll have AK/smaller PP/I will draw out on my two outer more often than 25%. Wtf does he have? I'm getting 3:1..."

But the concensus seems to be to fold somewhere. I still can't really get myself to fold anywhere preflop, so it must be a check/fold on the flop then. Hrm.

First of all I have to correct what I wrote in my 1st post, I seem to not have noticed there is a side pot involved, + main pot is too big, and all this will make CO not willing to check it down, I should have never thought that.

As far as looking at odds, once the flop comes and the decision is for all your chips, I also think you don't look at it in terms of "getting 3 to 1" or whatever; IMO, such calculations are ok to do PF, even if its for all your chips. Ex., lets say YOU are the CO in this hand, and after button makes his move, other villain goes all-in, has you covered, and you have AK. In that situation, before the flop, I'll look at odds (we are, for simplicity, assuming stacks and tourney stage are those in your thread). If I'm getting 3 to 1 on AK PF, I'll certainly call off my stack and take the chance, although I know I'm likely coinflipping and probably starting the hand a little behind. Hope that was clear and not confusing, the way I explained it.

Once the flop comes, if there is FE, odds rarely should come into play for a decision of all your chips, IMO. It's mostly about making you're assumptions if you're ahead or not, at that point. Although, and I'm perfectly aware you know this better than me, putting your chips in 1st is important and always superior than calling them off (unless the flop greatly improved your hand and you're trapping), it still comes down mostly to where you think you stand (am I ahead or behind?), its not just pot odds.

Now, in your hand, I fold this, although it may sound a bit conservative. The reason is that, because of how this hand played out, I respectfully disagree with the range you're putting villain on. His PF minreraise is screaming for a call or a shove I believe, and I can't possibly think he's on a small pair or AK. I think AK would shove at that point. I don't blame you thinking it because his post flop play could be consistent with such a hand (small PP or AK), where in the same time he's putting you on 2 high cards and thinks you missed the flop and have to fold to his bet. Problem is, its not consistent with his PF play. I think this line is more often than not a hand like QQ or JJ (as was mentioned by Chuck, there are many players who cold call AA-QQ), which has you W/B. I also agree with Snake that the PF shove is a much better gamble, although this looks to me that you were better off not doing it.

The risk/reward is a very interesting topic in tourney play, and I'll put my 2 cents in it. Last MTT I played, after losing a couple pots toward the end of the 2nd hour, I found myself with a stack slightly below avg., with about 70 left and 36 places paid (its a 360 MAX players for $9.90, which always fills up). In EP, I'm dealt AQs and I raise the standard 3BB. Action folds to BB who slightly reraises. After thinking about it I shove back, he calls and flips over JJ. I didn't improve and got knocked out. While I admit my shove is certainly debatable and questionable with AQs faced by a minreraise, the reason why I bring it up is that, had I known villain had JJ, I would play it the same way, because of the risk/reward. If I win that hand I'll be about 4k above avg. The situation I was in I'll take that gamble every time (although lately I seem to lose every coinflip I'm in) .

I think anytime you're below avg, or slightly above like you were in this tourney, some risks are worth taking because of the benefits they will bring, like having a big stack close to the bubble as you mentioned. I don't think you can cruise through a tourney w/o taking the occasional risk, particularly if the field is large (1000+). Postflop skills are essential to win small pots, but I really think they can only take you so far in such big fields, because big pots postflop usually only come with big hands, and those certainly don't come often enough. You'll need to win a few coinflips somewhere down the road because its not logical to wait for AA or KK to make a move and stay quiet until then. I don't think tournament play is ALL about this, but I don't think you can run away from it every single time it presents itself, and sometimes you are forced to make it happen, i.e., being the one who shoves.

TBH, what I think is a better topic is evaluating when to take risks, or if you should at all for that account, when you happen to have a bigger stack (which, I painfully admit, is a problem that I have to deal with every time I'm able to achieve that). Logic tells you to play small pot in that scenario, buy I wonder if ever you should take chances, although I realize its very hard to generalize this and many factors come into play. When you have the big stack, and you're surrounded by players with smaller ones and always ready to shove, where do you cross the line and make some calls? This is an issue for me.

 

[F Paulsson]

The risk/reward is a very interesting topic in tourney play, and I'll put my 2 cents in it. Last MTT I played, after losing a couple pots toward the end of the 2nd hour, I found myself with a stack slightly below avg., with about 70 left and 36 places paid (its a 360 MAX players for $9.90, which always fills up). In EP, I'm dealt AQs and I raise the standard 3BB. Action folds to BB who slightly reraises. After thinking about it I shove back, he calls and flips over JJ. I didn't improve and got knocked out. While I admit my shove is certainly debatable and questionable with AQs faced by a minreraise, the reason why I bring it up is that, had I known villain had JJ, I would play it the same way, because of the risk/reward. If I win that hand I'll be about 4k above avg. The situation I was in I'll take that gamble every time (although lately I seem to lose every coinflip I'm in) .

I think anytime you're below avg, or slightly above like you were in this tourney, some risks are worth taking because of the benefits they will bring, like having a big stack close to the bubble as you mentioned. I don't think you can cruise through a tourney w/o taking the occasional risk, particularly if the field is large (1000+). Postflop skills are essential to win small pots, but I really think they can only take you so far in such big fields, because big pots postflop usually only come with big hands, and those certainly don't come often enough. You'll need to win a few coinflips somewhere down the road because its not logical to wait for AA or KK to make a move and stay quiet until then. I don't think tournament play is ALL about this, but I don't think you can run away from it every single time it presents itself, and sometimes you are forced to make it happen, i.e., being the one who shoves.

This is exactly what I'm referring to! I need to work on the exact concept, but this is close to home. There's a possibility that you should never take a "bad gamble" because despite having a short stack you'd still be better off waiting a few more hands and try to simply steal the blinds (take advantage of fold equity to build a stack with small pots rather than taking a large-pot-gamble with <50% chance of winning), but there has to be a break-even point somewhere. I'll work on it for awhile, see what I come up with.