$8 NLHE STT: worst river in deck

[baudib1]

Well this is a terrible river but unless he has precisely a royal flush or K9dd/T9dd, he can't have too many flush draws in his range, and I'd assume he'd reraise the flop with some of these combo draws a good percentage of the time. KT and AQ did get there.

but the problem is this is a scare card for him, most of his range is weak Ax and is going to fold a ton on this river. How much to bet?

No Limit Holdem Tournament
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Step 2 (Turbo)

Stacks:
UTG (1,545)
UTG+1 (1,395)
MP1 (1,290)
MP2 (1,430)
CO (2,440)
BTN (400)
SB (2,120)
Hero (BB) (2,880)

Blinds: 40/80

Pre-Flop: (120, 8 players) Hero is BB A:club: J:club:
4 folds, CO raises to 160, 2 folds, Hero calls 80

Flop: 9:club: J:diamond: A:diamond: (360, 2 players)
Hero bets 240, CO calls 240

Turn: 2:spade: (840, 2 players)
Hero bets 640, CO calls 640

River: Q:diamond: (2,120, 2 players)
Hero

 

[MrEpic94]

I think checking here is fine, if we bet we are forced to commit our whole stack if villian shoves over a small bet. I dont think our hand is strong enough to have great equity against his calling range now that straights and flushes got there.

villians range here is basically Ax or a straight with some random flushes thrown in there.

I would think Ax will fold to a bet, and the rest of his range call/shove which dominates us.

so check is good imo

 

[baudib1]

villians range here is basically Ax or a straight with some random flushes thrown in there.

did you notice the size of the pot? i think he'll call something.

 

[Jillychemung]

The river can't be a good card for the villain either for most of his range so lackijng any reads on the villain I'd check/call a small bet , check/fold to a shove. The villain calling your turn bet on that blank is problematic for me. Either villain has a set or AJ (doubt he'd have A9, J9) or a strong draw or air.

 

[thunder1276]

I would have reraised to around 480 preflop. You have a solid hand against a LP raise so you want to get him off marginal hands. as for the river, check is good. I dont think that he is gonna bet behind with anything that is worse than you, so I would fold to a bet unless it is really small

 

[MrEpic94]

did you notice the size of the pot? i think he'll call something.

Basically when we bet small 3 things will happen, call/fold/shove

we will be commited to calling a shove due to the pot size so therefor our river bet is a shove or check as we want to maximize our fold equity if we are betting the river.

checking>shoving as it allows to get maximum showdown value in a spot where villians calling range dominates us.

 

[baudib1]

Basically when we bet small 3 things will happen, call/fold/shove

we will be commited to calling a shove due to the pot size so therefor our river bet is a shove or check as we want to maximize our fold equity if we are betting the river.

checking>shoving as it allows to get maximum showdown value in a spot where villians calling range dominates us.

Construct a range that dominates us -- it's actually harder than you think when you look at the board because he has few flush draws in his range.

I think if we shove we are almost never getting called cuz villain has 2 pair+ almost never.

stats didn't show up but he was running 38/20 over a short sample.

 

[WiZZiM]

Pretty sure SNG players are passive enough to call two streets with flush draws here. So we can't really say he doesn't have one.

But i agree that shoving this river wouldn't be great. I think we have to be happy with the two streets of value we have and probably check it. However it leads to the next problem of what to do if he bets.

Perhaps a blocking bet might work? It's always harder to shove over a bet than it is to bet, we extract a tiny bit more value from the hands we are ahead of, and it doesn't let him bet the river, he has to actually raise.

Thoughts?

 

[baudib1]

wiz, it's just because three big diamonds are on board, it's unlikely he is minraising with T9dd or worse so he has not many FDs in his range. Someone raising with KTdd/T9dd is also probably trying to stick it in on the flop when his equity is greatest.

yeah I'm thinking vbetting small too but if he shoves over we're getting 3-1 with a strong range.

 

[WiZZiM]

wiz, it's just because three big diamonds are on board, it's unlikely he is minraising with T9dd or worse so he has not many FDs in his range. Someone raising with KTdd/T9dd is also probably trying to stick it in on the flop when his equity is greatest.

yeah I'm thinking vbetting small too but if he shoves over we're getting 3-1 with a strong range.

Ahah! yeah that makes total sense.

Perhaps there is still value in shoving this river then... It's going to be real hard to fold if he does shove over with odds as you mention.

 

[MrEpic94]

22/QQ/KK and to a lesser degree 99/JJ/AA are all in his range,
Ax/KTo+/K9s+/QTo+/Q9s+/JTo/JTs

hows that looking for villians range? tbh your correct and it doesnt look as dominating as I thought it would.

What do we do i we check and villian shoves? getting 2:1 on our call.

 

[Xavier]

You need to follow through and shove the river here.
Checking is bad.

The point is that if he shoves the river himself, which he does with hands you are beating, you are pot committed anyway with 2-1 pot odds and have to call.

Often bad players with any ace rag will just call the river here, and can't lay down the hand after they've put that many chips.