$6.50 NLHE STT Turbo: t40/t80, big stacked with opportunity to steal

[cjatud2012]

Hey guys, this is a spot where I feel like I've been on auto-pilot lately, and I think it's worth looking at. Both blinds are tight - SB is 8/7/1.8 3b over 199 hands, BB is 8/5/0 3b over 41. BTN is 38/8 over 41.

So, fold or raise? If you fold, why? If you raise, why? What's your sizing? What's your plan post-flop? How do you respond to a 3-bet?

Full Tilt - $6+0.50 $6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo) (#227174189) - Blinds: 40/80 No Limit Hold'em (7 players)
Full Tilt Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: t2,095
BB: t1,335
UTG: t1,380
MP: t885
MP+1: t3,055
CO Hero: t3,865
BTN: t885

Pre-flop: (t120) Hero is CO and dealt
3 folds, Hero ???

 

[ben_rhyno]

Raise to 210, call off if BTN 3b shoves and fold to a 3b from the tight blinds, I like to use the big stack to accumulate more chips. If flat called then it's pretty awkward but that's only likely from the BTN unless the blinds wake up with a good hand which we can easily get away from after only investing 210 (5%)

 

[ben_rhyno]

If he flat calls 38% of hands we are essentially 50% vs that range
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
844,165,872 games 0.808 secs 1,044,759,742 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.296% 50.82% 00.48% 428966812 4056806.00 { 5d5h }
Hand 1: 48.704% 48.22% 00.48% 407085448 4056806.00 { 22+, A2s+, K3s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A4o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J9o+, T9o }

 

[No Brainer]

Raise to 240 pre, BTN calls and we shove any flop. EZ game...

OBV fold to any nits 3 bet and maybe just check behind if it gets all multiway on our ass...

 

[DetroitJimmy]

I agree with the above only exception is my raise size which would be 200. Sometimes as little as 180 on the button. Why? Just cause it's my standard opening raise is all. Plus it makes C-betting without being all in possible too. Seems we are all on the same page though.

As for postflop if called by button only open shove any flop prolly. If called by a blind we could try a small c-bet like 40% of pot(on a dryish board)and still fold to re-raise. Pretty much set mining against tight ass blinds if they call.

Then there is always plan B which may be overlooked but still an option. Fold! I don't think it is out of the question. You don't "need" to play it just cause you have decent position and it's a pair. You have nice chip stack and don't need to make marginal plays at this point. Almost anything that is calling is flipping against you at worst and most pairs that would call are bigger. Not worth set mining as the effective stacks behind you are too small,

I would prolly go for steal though and if it didn't work out try not to get to involved post flop. Much easier to just lay it down though and don't think it could really affect profit in long run by folding.

 

[WiZZiM]

Stealing gains us nothing, i'd rather have 78s here, shortstacker is likely to do something stupid at any time, honestly what is the point of stealing here?

 

[ben_rhyno]

Because we have a stronger than average hand vs two blinds that will likely fold and one shortstack fish who we can gain value from? That's how I look at it

 

[Bwammo]

I like Jimmy's raise to only 180 because while we are "stealing" we're really just allowing the blinds to call us easier and see more flops in position against more bad hands.

However...55 is dangerously close to the range of hands I recommend avoiding stealing with in this situation since it's basically the same type of hand as say 74o. We're never really happy on any flop unless we get really lucky and hit big. We're putting ourselves in a situation that requires us to c-bet on flops where we know we are behind if we get called or any sort of play. If we c-bet and get called, our only hope is 2 outs, since whatever they have may not already be ahead but we've basically given the hand up already (which means they have already won it if they decide to bet at all) and if they haven't hit they have at minimum 6 outs that we will gladly let them see the river with.

I like doing the small raise with 55/66+ pre and folding 44/55 and worse. 55 really is a bubble hand for me and the defining factor ultimately is do I care if I lose the amount I'm investing? And if I raise to 180 or so in this situation, the answer simply is no, which means I can be a turd and do whatever I want.

 

[cjatud2012]

Okay, so my thoughts here are that while we have an above average hand, there isn't actually much value in stealing. If we take it down pre-flop, we win t120, yayyy. Although neither player in the blinds is likely to 3-bet wide, neither of them is going to just flat call all that much either, which is what we would want (value steal!). We can try to increase the odds of this happening by raising smaller but it might not make much of a difference to these nits.

Further complicating this is the BTN. He's going to call us a lot and he's short-stacked. Tbh it doesn't really matter much what our hot and cold equity is against his range pre-flop if he's going to be flatting us, since he'll have position and we can almost never call an all-in from him on the flop. I don't even know if we'd be able to c-bet, because the pot would be ~t500 and he'd have ~t700 behind, so a lot of c-bets are going to leave you committed. Even if you c-bet small enough that you could fold to a shove, I bet this kind of player is going to flat a small bet a lot of the time, just because he's an idiot and he can.

So what if BTN shoves? Here our hot and cold equity is a little more important, and we're not better than flipping against him. If we called a shove and lose we drop to below t3000, and if we call and win we go to ~t4800. So while that's a pretty nice boost in chips does it help us win the tournament enough to take the risk? That part is harder to determine.

I guess my point is that it's very marginal. In the past I think I'd be raising this almost always, but I don't think it's a very good play, at best it is an okay play, and I'm trying to be a little more selective with my spots. I just have to be careful not to become too selective. Maybe I will try to find another spot and see what variables we can change to make our decision a little more clear.

 

[cjatud2012]

Here's a kinda similar example. BTN is 51/0, SB is 8/6, BB is 35/12, all over less than 50 hands. What is our decision here?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $200(BB) Replayer
SB ($2,970)
BB ($1,220)
UTG ($1,800)
UTG+1 ($1,065)
UTG+2 ($2,900)
Hero ($2,460)
BTN ($1,085)

Dealt to Hero A:diamond: 2:heart:

fold, fold, fold, Hero ???

 

[DetroitJimmy]

^^^^ fold. I hate to steal with weak aces even more than small pairs. I would rather steal with a "hitable" hand like 69s than steal with weak, unsuited ace.

If on the button vs. tight blinds steal with smallest amount other than min raise. Like 225 or 230 then fold to 3bet.

 

[cjatud2012]

Anymore thoughts on either hand here?

 

[aaron_jd]

With your 55 on the original post, I'd probably just call and see what happens. If button shoves and everyone else folds, I call.

A2 = likely fold

 

[cjatud2012]

With your 55 on the original post, I'd probably just call and see what happens. If button shoves and everyone else folds, I call.

A2 = likely fold

can you elaborate please?