$6.50 NLHE STT Turbo: $6.50 6 Max turbo Calling D-bet Shove?

[WiZZiM]

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 6.5 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (4 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) (t3510)
SB (t1890)
BB (t1085)
UTG (t2515)

Hero's M: 23.40

Preflop: Hero is Button with A

, K

1 fold, Hero bets t225, 1 fold, BB calls t125

Flop: (t500) 9

, 3

, 8

(2 players)
BB bets t860 (All-In), Hero ????


Villian is running a 50 VPIP and is relatively passive postflop. I figure that flop hits a lot of his range (JT Q9s etc) and while i might be ahead i can't be that far ahead. If i thought this player was the type to "stop and go" i might be more inclined to call. But as it stands, loose player calling and shoving flops, any value in calling here? Anyone want to take a stab at some pokerstove ranges?

 

[cjatud2012]

Like your sizing pre.

So if he's not stop-n-going you, we're likely to be a ~3:1 dog, assuming both of our overcard outs are good. If he has Ahxh or JT or T7 or something weird, then we're probably about even money against those types of hands... Before looking at an equity calculator, I'd average that off and say we're about a 2:1 dog overall, which isn't good enough given the odds we're being offered. Even if we were getting better pot odds we still might not be able to call, because the SB and UTG take a lot of the KO'd player's equity.

But I will look at propokertools and come back to this in a min.

edit: shoot, this is a 6-max, uhhh that may change my mind. But let me have a closer look at the equities first.

 

[cjatud2012]

Okay, so a quick look at a possible range gives this:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
155,430 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 9:club:3:heart:8:heart:

Hand |Pot equity |Wins |Ties
AdKc|30.76% |47,366|879
Ah*h, JT, J9, J8, Q9, Q8, T9, A3, K9, K8, T8, T7, QJ|69.24% |107,185|879

I don't know how many more draws/random hands you can add to that, so I definitely think 2:1 is a best case here, and 3:1 is the most likely scenario. So yeah, the pot odds definitely aren't there. While it'd be nice to knock this guy out and increase our chip lead, since 2nd is more than half of our stack, it's not as if we can really use those new chips to our advantage. Besides, abusing the bubble here means we win t150 pre-flop, which doesn't really do anything for us imo.

 

[WiZZiM]

Okay, so a quick look at a possible range gives this:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
155,430 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 9<font color='black'>♣</font>3<font color='red'>♥</font>8<font color='red'>♥</font>

Hand |Pot equity |Wins |Ties
AdKc|30.76% |47,366|879
Ah*h, JT, J9, J8, Q9, Q8, T9, A3, K9, K8, T8, T7, QJ|69.24% |107,185|879

I don't know how many more draws/random hands you can add to that, so I definitely think 2:1 is a best case here, and 3:1 is the most likely scenario. So yeah, the pot odds definitely aren't there. While it'd be nice to knock this guy out and increase our chip lead, since 2nd is more than half of our stack, it's not as if we can really use those new chips to our advantage. Besides, abusing the bubble here means we win t150 pre-flop, which doesn't really do anything for us imo.

Pretty much what i'm thinking. It sucks to fold AK to a guy with 10BB's, but against this player, i doubt we're good very often, and gaining those chips doesn't really help us all that much, but losing them brings us back into the pack and changes the table dynamic a lot.

 

[WiZZiM]

If i thought he was capable of stop and going, then i'd be snapp calling this, as the likely hands that players would do this include stuff like KJ and such.

 

[cjatud2012]

Yeah, quick equity calculation for if he's stop and going with the top 25% or so (could be wider than that obviously, but it probably doesn't change our equity a whole lot. I'm also not sure what hand ranking system propokertools uses):

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
249,480 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 9:club:3:heart:8:heart:

Hand |Pot equity |Wins |Ties
AdKc|48.75% |116,758|9,709
25%|51.25% |123,013|9,709

So we need 38% for this to be +cEV, probably 44-45% from a tournament equity standpoint. So that's probably good enough (I'm actually kinda surprised by this result).