$6.50 NLHE STT Turbo: $$6.50 NLHE STT Turbo: AA with 3 limpers

[the lab man]

Shove time... I think your ahead of more hands in range than behind

 

[TheKAAHK]

Apparently not since you keep putting our opponent on one hand. So I felt like reminding you. How about you think up ALL the hands our opponent could have, and give me an equity? Or is pokerstove too difficult?

I love the tournament forum because the most obvious spots that are a non-decision get debated. At least in the cash game forum sometimes the decisions are difficult.

I did think of all the probable hands the opponent could hold. I then narrowed down his range to what I thought was the most probable holding based on his actions. I came up with KQ because that was my first impression upon first reading through the hand.

Defining a range is good, but one must narrow that range accordingly based on position and actions taken in relation to your actions and the board.

If this were a cash game, then yes, you could go on all day about possible percentages and how they relate to your hand. If you're wrong, just re-load and get your money back later. But in tourney situations you must take into account other factors, namely the idea is to get all the chips and bust your opponent.

Maybe I'm just playing devil's advocate here because I'm just sad to see all the "Shove, you got AA" reply's ITT, and no other possible scenarios. If we all think and play the same way things would get boring real fast.

So to satisfy you, here are some ranges through Pokerstove:

AA vs AQo/AQs - 88/11 Ahead

AA vs AKs/AKo - 82/17 Ahead

AA vs QQ - 10/90 Behind

AA vs 66 - 10/90 Behind

AA vs 33-JJ - 85/15 Ahead

AA vs KQ - 26/73 Behind

AA vs AdJd - 53/46 Ahead

AA vs AXd - 60/40 Ahead

Now after posting all this obviousness, we can all see that we are ahead of most of out opponent's range here. In some cases way ahead, in some cases not by much. (Didn't need Pokerstove to figure that out)

Taking this into account, we can then narrow down the likely range based on his actions. Actions such as the just over half pot bet on the flop. With that much of Hero's stack already involved, a t300 bet on the flop does not leave much fold equity. Also, since this is a turbo, a pure bluff is unlikely. IMO, villain is either semi bluffing with AXd, trying to protect with AK (though I still think AK would raise utg) or trying to induce a shove with 66 or QQ or KQ.

Now all this rambling aside, I would still go with the shove. Why? Because we are ahead of most of villains range and judging by the poor pre-flop play by said villain we should be happy to get it in here all day.

 

[cjatud2012]

Yup, against a likely range it's pretty much a no-brainer:

Board: Kd Qh 6d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.641% 71.53% 00.11% 444039 658.50 { AA }
Hand 1: 28.359% 28.25% 00.11% 175374 658.50 { KK-66, AQs+, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AQo+, KJo+, QJo, JTo }

In this sort of spot you need to get the money in, not only because you are crushing, but because there are advantages to having a bigger stack. Get the money in. Win. Easy game.

 

[c9h13no3]

*blah blah giant argument for folding*

Now all this rambling aside, I would still go with the shove. Why?

Because you're bad at logic.

 

[edgie212]

Especially from a volume perspective...if you're playing a lot of these, to get beat here is just bad variance. In the scheme of things it is a 6.50 bet that goes south.

 

[DetroitJimmy]

https://www.cardschat.com/f53/how-use-pokerstove-165772/

Thanks, exactly what I was looking for will give a watch later. Didn't want to start whole new thread if info was already out there. Sorry for the hijack too, just figured this info could possibly help others viewing this thread also.

 

[TheKAAHK]

Because you're bad at logic.

If you say so...

 

[MuscleMan76]

Ok, i think the villian's hand was mentioned only once in all of the posts. He turned over J10s.

I believe he played this hand wrong at every possible action. In honesty his limp utg was probably his best move. I don't see how he could have called the pre-flop raise, or semi-bluffed on the flop where there's virtually no chance of getting me to fold.

Anyway, he rivered the 9 he need for the straight. I think I'm a pretty aweful post-flop player, which is why i posted the hand in the first place.

 

[OzExorcist]

So to satisfy you, here are some ranges through Pokerstove:

AA vs AQo/AQs - 88/11 Ahead

AA vs AKs/AKo - 82/17 Ahead

AA vs QQ - 10/90 Behind...

You know that the idea of a range is that you calculate your equity against the WHOLE range all at once, like cj did above, not one at a time right? It's faster AND more useful.

 

[TheKAAHK]

You know that the idea of a range is that you calculate your equity against the WHOLE range all at once, like cj did above, not one at a time right? It's faster AND more useful.

Indeed. I realized that after I made my post and didn't bother to go correct it. Ty for reminding me of this Oz.

 

[DetroitJimmy]

TBH the donk bet is usually weak unless you have some kind of read telling you different. Why would he bet out a set or two pair? Cause he is afraid of you outdrawing him? I doubt it. Maybe a semibluff DB? Don't matter! This action from a weak player = instashove no pokerstove or math needed!

This is why I like small/micro stakes STT's compared to cash games or even MTT's. Most of the decisions are way easier. Aces are about the easiest at any stage of the tourney. Same with TPTK +. Just keep betting raising trying to get it AI on flop or turn against most players!

 

[cjatud2012]

TBH the donk bet is usually weak unless you have some kind of read telling you different. Why would he bet out a set or two pair? Cause he is afraid of you outdrawing him? I doubt it. Maybe a semibluff DB? Don't matter! This action from a weak player = instashove no pokerstove or math needed!

This is why I like small/micro stakes STT's compared to cash games or even MTT's. Most of the decisions are way easier. Aces are about the easiest at any stage of the tourney. Same with TPTK +. Just keep betting raising trying to get it AI on flop or turn against most players!

Well I feel that's true like 98% of the time, especially at micro limits where we play, because there are so many fish/randoms/etc. that will pay you off with worse. But just be careful when you see some nitbag reg check/raising your bet after two players called behind you!

(is nitbag I word? I think it is)

I agree though that over-thinking a spot like this is never a good thing, and decisions like this one need to be automatic in order increase our ROI and our $/hr.