$6.50 NLHE STT: Bubble with AK against CL

[Poker Orifice]

shove is the play, when the cl limps hes not showing strength, the cl is the one making the mistake here, he should be shoving ATC.

+1

 

[c9h13no3]

what does this even mean?

Because weird ICMness keeps you from being able to shove AK.

So what I think Wizzim has done here is made it pretty obvious that if the chip-leader limps with the top 30% of his hands, and calls 10% then shoving AK here is bad.

However, I think some of his assumptions are pretty rough.

1) Calling the top 10% of hands is what, {AT+, KJ+} & such? It seems like that range may be a shade wide.

2) That he limps the top 30%. He probably limps a range something like AA/KK and then a wide range of middling hands. If anything, he limps the top 2% and the middle 28%. So his range isn't exactly how you defined it. And he may not limp AA/KK at all.

3) Limping is a +EV play. Playing a pot with no initiative & bad position with a hand that doesn't like low SPR's seems like a bad plan.

4) We should call a shove from a short stack. Its probably a call, but I'm too lazy to do the math to prove that its actually a limp/call instead of a limp/fold.

So I can be convinced that this isn't a shove (but I think it still might be). But even if it isn't a shove, is limping better than folding? And is limp/calling better than limp/folding?

 

[Bwammo]

Wasn't exactly sure of the optimal approach here, i guess it's fine to just shove preflop, however it seems like i'm risking a hell of a lot here vs the CL. Reads wise, the two short villians are stupid. They don't tend to call light, but they tend to make some silly plays, so i expected if i was to limp here one of them may do something silly. So i limp behind figuring i can play a much smaller pot in position vs the CL, and i was planning to call a shove from either of the blinds as they are likely to go silly and shove here facing two limps. Anyways just wondering about my thought process here, i'm kind of trying to control the pot size mostly, as i felt shoving was too much, but i'm also inducing a shove from the blinds, which is probably not ideal and our hand isn't strong enough, but that was my plan for this hand, it worked out this time, thoughts on my line here?

I like the line you took for the same reasons you stated. It's not worth risking everything we have when we're almost twice the size of 3rd and 4th place. As for the call after the SB shoves, yes we make that all day, since that's part of the reason why we limped to begin with.

 

[c9h13no3]

since that's part of the reason why we limped to begin with.

I don't see how this is an argument for calling a shove. Sure, its our plan for the hand, but our plan for the hand could still be wrong.

 

[WiZZiM]

Because weird ICMness keeps you from being able to shove AK.

So what I think Wizzim has done here is made it pretty obvious that if the chip-leader limps with the top 30% of his hands, and calls 10% then shoving AK here is bad.

However, I think some of his assumptions are pretty rough.

1) Calling the top 10% of hands is what, {AT+, KJ+} & such? It seems like that range may be a shade wide.
Yeah definitely, i didn't really put much effort into the ranges, because, well, i simply have no idea what this guy is like. The whole point of posting those SS's was to derive a result, or to prove a point that this spot is never going to be clear cut. So the result i gained was, if this guy is calling 10%(which may not be true, i have no idea), then he's going to have to be limp/folding as wide as 70% for it to be a shove, and even then it's barely a good one.
2) That he limps the top 30%. He probably limps a range something like AA/KK and then a wide range of middling hands. If anything, he limps the top 2% and the middle 28%. So his range isn't exactly how you defined it. And he may not limp AA/KK at all.
Yep, totally, if you can point out how to put all of this into a formula i'll happily do the math and ranges.
3) Limping is a +EV play. Playing a pot with no initiative & bad position with a hand that doesn't like low SPR's seems like a bad plan.
Sometimes we get stuck into making bad plays right? Sometimes we just have to go with the best of the bad plans, rather than making a shove that we're pretty sure is really bad.
4) We should call a shove from a short stack. Its probably a call, but I'm too lazy to do the math to prove that its actually a limp/call instead of a limp/fold.

So I can be convinced that this isn't a shove (but I think it still might be). But even if it isn't a shove, is limping better than folding? And is limp/calling better than limp/folding?This is pretty much the discussion i've been after. I can't really answer that, i'm pretty sure limping behind is fine, we do have position after all, so we still technically have some control in the hand.

Is limp/calling good? I'm prety sure it is, the read i had on these two was that one of them is very likely to do something stupid, so their ranges are kind of wide here, most broadway, most aces/pairs and some other weird Q9s type hands. So against that range we do pretty darn well. The equity scenarios above show that limp/ calling nets us a better equity situation overall, we make roughly the same if we win(and we're ITM), and we don't lose it all when we don't win, we still have a real shot of getting ITM and winning this thing, though it's a pretty major setback.

The other good thing about limping behind, if the CL is trapping, and the blinds shove, he snaps making it the easiest fold ever. But the flipside is if we get postflop, there's still that chance of him stacking us if we flop big too.

Yep totally agree here, unfortunately we have to make assumptions about ranges and such. And in spots like this, it's HIGHLY dependant on what this guy is doing, and since i really have no idea what a guy like this is doing, it's really hard to narrow his ranges down, as you've pointed out here.