$6.50 NLHE STT: Bubble with AK against CL

[WiZZiM]

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 6.5 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t1805)
UTG (t6535)
Hero (Button) (t3420)
SB (t1740)

Hero's M: 11.40

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A
UTG calls t200, Hero calls t200, SB bets t1740 (All-In), 2 folds, Hero calls t1540

Flop: (t3880) 3, 5, 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t3880) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t3880) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t3880


Wasn't exactly sure of the optimal approach here, i guess it's fine to just shove preflop, however it seems like i'm risking a hell of a lot here vs the CL. Reads wise, the two short villians are stupid. They don't tend to call light, but they tend to make some silly plays, so i expected if i was to limp here one of them may do something silly. So i limp behind figuring i can play a much smaller pot in position vs the CL, and i was planning to call a shove from either of the blinds as they are likely to go silly and shove here facing two limps. Anyways just wondering about my thought process here, i'm kind of trying to control the pot size mostly, as i felt shoving was too much, but i'm also inducing a shove from the blinds, which is probably not ideal and our hand isn't strong enough, but that was my plan for this hand, it worked out this time, thoughts on my line here?

 

[cjatud2012]

I like this a lot actually. If one of the blinds shove and the chip leader folds we can call, but if they shove and the chip leader calls/shoves, we can fold having invested only t200. If we were to shove ourselves, the blinds could both fold and the chip leader could call, which would pretty much be a disaster.

well played imo.

 

[Jillychemung]

It's you and the CL against these 2 small stacks so you don't want to run into a trap by the CL at this point. With position on the CL I think it's fine to limp here and see how the action plays out. If you end up heads up then you can control the hand with your position.

 

[c9h13no3]

I fail to see how this is good. Someone explain.

 

[Jillychemung]

As I see it -
1st priority is to get ITM
2nd priority is to finish 1st

We want one or both of the small stacks (SS) to shove
We don't want a big pot against the CL
We have a big enough hand to call an AI from either SS
The information we get from the CL after/if a SS shoves is HUGE here
The equity we lose by folding AK here then a SS shoves and CL folds I believe would be large.
The equity we lose by raising, SS shove, CL shoves, we fold I believe is also large.

 

[cjatud2012]

I fail to see how this is good. Someone explain.

Well with the presence of two shorter stacks in the blinds, it'd be a disaster for us to get called wide by the chip leader, but it might still have some value against the short stacks. So if one of the short stacks shoves from the blinds, if the chip leader calls we can get out of the way, but if he folds then we can call. AK is probably at the very bottom of our range here, it might even be too weak, but either way I think it's better than just shoving.

 

[WiZZiM]

I have no idea if this is good or not, thus why i'm posting it.

But i mean shoving here doesnt really achieve a lot. Let's look at it equity wise, we shove here and take down the blinds, we're taking a decent amount of risk that the CL is going to fold. It wouldnt be a complete disaster if he calls as we have a pretty strong hand, but with stack sizes the way they are, and with two really bad shortstacks it's kind of a spew.

Equity right now ~27%
Equity if we shove and take blinds ~28-29%
Equity if we shove, CL calls and we lose 0%
Equity if we shove, CL calls and we win ~40%
Equity if we shove, one blind calls and we lose ~18-19%
Equity if we shove, one blind calls and we win ~34%

Basically i think it's too risky to shove here and we don't gain a lot by doing so, and it doesn't change our equity position at all really, plus small chance CL is trapping or will make some sort of weird call with a pocket pair or some other funky hand.

The question i'm trying to get answered is if we can take a chance by calling one of the shortstacks, i mention they are likely to do something silly here, so range wise, i couldnt really get an accurate figure. All i knew was AK was certainly ahead of their range, if we call and lose, we switch equity positions but we're still alive and well in the tournament, and if we win, yay money.

Ideally, i wasn't looking for the blinds to shove, but if they did, i planned to call. What i wanted was the blinds to either fold or check, and we go to a flop where i have position.

 

[WiZZiM]

Hoping someone can do a risk/reward on this call. how does it change our equity in both scenarios if we call and win, or call and lose. And how strong does our hand need to be against a few ranges(as i'm not certain how wide the range can be, so if we can work out how wide the range is when AK is strong enough to call we can work out if it's good/bad)

 

[cjatud2012]

will try to do that later, right now I'm starvinggggggg.

 

[tmoney0209]

shove is the play, when the cl limps hes not showing strength, the cl is the one making the mistake here, he should be shoving ATC.

 

[WiZZiM]

shove is the play, when the cl limps hes not showing strength, the cl is the one making the mistake here, he should be shoving ATC.

Yeah i agree he's obviously bad, but his limp/calling range is really not clear here. Whether this is a slightly+EV shove or a wildly -EV one is highly dependant on his limp/calling range.

 

[WiZZiM]

Yeah, this is certainly a really bad shove no matter what happens here.

The first one is the best guess i have on this guys range, he can still call decently wide, it hurts him to call us, but he won't be knocked out.

Second one is how wide he needs to limp then fold for it to be a marginally +EV shove.

 

[tenbob]

Jesus.

This is software gone mad, imo.

We have a top hand, vs a bad player that has limped, someone please show me how a fold is the correct play without showing a screenshot of a piece of software please. Wizz, I am pretty confident if you do the math yourelf that you would have a pretty easy decision.

I'd snap shove this, and fist pump if im called tbh.

 

[WiZZiM]

Huh? we're not folding, we're limping behind. Screw this, math time...

 

[atlantafalcons0]

So it's shove, limp or fold? Why not just raise? That seems to be the smartest decision to me.

 

[WiZZiM]

So it's shove, limp or fold? Why not just raise? That seems to be the smartest decision to me.

If the blinds weren't so spazzy, then i'd like this option a little more.

However, what happens if we ISO and cl shoves? What happens when we ISO and we get called and we whiff flop? What happens if he donk bets? These are all feasible scenarios here, and we probably don't have much room to maneuver postflop. I'm about to do some equity scenarios after i get some lunch, so i will include the times where we raise/cbet/fold and raise/cbet/win

 

[cjatud2012]

Jesus.

This is software gone mad, imo.

We have a top hand, vs a bad player that has limped, someone please show me how a fold is the correct play without showing a screenshot of a piece of software please. Wizz, I am pretty confident if you do the math yourelf that you would have a pretty easy decision.

I'd snap shove this, and fist pump if im called tbh.

How can you fist pump when you're risking you're entire tournament equity on the bubble, when there's two short stacks in the blinds?? If we shove and get called by the chip leader, even if we win our equity is not going to increase dramatically. So for us to risk our whole stack we're gonna to win a lot more often than normal for us to break even on this.

 

[cjatud2012]

Equity before this deal: 0.2754
Equity if we shove and win: 0.3776
Equity if we shove and lose... 0

So we're risking 27% equity to win 10%? You need a hugeeeeee edge to take advantage of that one. So unless you know villain is limping very wide but calling very narrow we seriously can't shove this.

 

[pickup]

Jesus.

This is software gone mad, imo.

We have a top hand, vs a bad player that has limped, someone please show me how a fold is the correct play without showing a screenshot of a piece of software please. Wizz, I am pretty confident if you do the math yourelf that you would have a pretty easy decision.

I'd snap shove this, and fist pump if im called tbh.

I 100% agree with you, this program does not take into account that it looks so obvious that the player who shoved looks like he is just trying to pick up the blinds... this is why humans have brains, we can think about why the small blind is making a play to pick up the blinds and what looks like a weak call from the hero, definetly get it in with the fist pump for sure, BABY I LIKE IT!!!

 

[cjatud2012]

I 100% agree with you, this program does not take into account that it looks so obvious that the player who shoved looks like he is just trying to pick up the blinds... this is why humans have brains, we can think about why the small blind is making a play to pick up the blinds and what looks like a weak call from the hero, definetly get it in with the fist pump for sure, BABY I LIKE IT!!!

The debate isn't on calling the shove or not, I'm pretty sure we're looking at what we should do after the chip leader limps in front of us...

Please read the whole thread.

 

[atlantafalcons0]

If the blinds weren't so spazzy, then i'd like this option a little more.

However, what happens if we ISO and cl shoves?Fold

What happens when we ISO and we get called and we whiff flop?Depends on what cl does.

What happens if he donk bets?

Depends on board texture, size of bet, if this is a multiway pot...etc

These are all feasible scenarios here, and we probably don't have much room to maneuver postflop.

I'm about to do some equity scenarios after i get some lunch, so i will include the times where we raise/cbet/fold and raise/cbet/win

Great!

It's a tricky spot for sure - can't wait to see the equity scenarios...

 

[WiZZiM]

Alright

Equity before hand - 27%
Likely scenarios vs CL
Equity if we shove and CL folds- 29%
Equity if we shove CL calls and we lose- 0%
Equity if we shove, CL calls and we win- 38%
Scenarios Vs shoving and having blinds call or limping and having blinds shove and we call.
Equity if we shove/limpinduce blinds to shove and we win- 36%
Equity if we shove/limpinduce blinds to shove and we lose- 16%


I don't think ISO raising is any good here, we make it say 5-600 and we get a call from the CL (kinda likely) the pot is now around 1300 odd and we have around 2800 left, it's akward to say the least, the c-bet sort of commits us. i think we can rule out ISOing. We can play this pot just limping behind i feel. perhaps making it 800 odd? but then what do we do if CL shoves, raising puts us in really akward decision trees i think.

 

[WiZZiM]

Anyways, i think the point is proven here if we read through and think about what these equities are telling us. Obviously limping behind and either playing a smaller pot whilst still in postion/ calling a shortstack out of the blinds is going to be WAY Way way way better than shoving. We gain around the same amount of equity, but we don't risk out entire tournament, and we still have a decent chunk of equity left if we lose. /thread

 

[c9h13no3]

Yeah, this is pretty much the reason I don't play donkaments.

 

[cjatud2012]

Yeah, this is pretty much the reason I don't play donkaments.

what does this even mean?