$55 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: Stars daily 90 grand final table JJ

[10058765]

Ok guys,
just want to know what you should do.
I'm at the FT and have JJ.
No stats and no real reads on villain, but we should know, to get here, a lot of stealing has been done by all of the players.
Pay out structure exx like this:
9th: $ 985
8th: $ 1590
7th: $ 2700
6th: $ 3800
5th: $ 5000
4th: $ 6600
3rd: $ 9300
2nd:$ 13000
1st: $ 17000

Nine left and next hand:

Stacks:
Villain with 1266838
Hero with 608680
MP1 with 791053
MP2 with 1178575
MP3 with 488432
CO with 892141
BTN with 474148
SB with 543405
BB with 326728

Blinds: 12500/25000
Site: pokerstars
Dealt to UTG+1:J♥ J♠
Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
UTG raises 35000 to 60000
UTG+1 raises 80000 to 140000
7 players fold.
UTG raises 1124338 to 1264338 [ all-in ]

Hero ?

 

[medeiros13]

I think I'm folding and waiting for a better spot. The one thing I don't understand is the reraise on your part to the big stack. The pot is raised and you're isolated, I'm calling and seeing where the flop leads me. Is this a little soft? Maybe, but the big stack is trying to show dominance by reraising you and you have no idea what they have.

 

[10058765]

I'll comment later, after other probable responses...

 

[baudib1]

not folding after putting in ~ 1/4 stack with JJ but I think you should flat the initial raise or, perhaps, just fold.

 

[medeiros13]

not folding after putting in ~ 1/4 stack with JJ but I think you should flat the initial raise or, perhaps, just fold.

Really, not folding?? Your M is still about 10 I believe after the fold. He'd have roughly 460K....so I still have a reason to fold....

 

[Rldetheflop]

yea I think I am folding this pf. We have a nice bit of equity in this tourney and although big stack could just be bullying with no real reads we have to give utg raise some credit. We dont have odds to set mine and an undercard board may get us in trouble.

 

[Rldetheflop]

Really, not folding?? Your M is still about 10 I believe after the fold. He'd have roughly 460K....so I still have a reason to fold....

I agree with this. I dont like it but You have to fold here you still have equity in this tourney. the real mistake is 3-betting utg raiser.

 

[baudib1]

Really, not folding?? Your M is still about 10 I believe after the fold. He'd have roughly 460K....so I still have a reason to fold....

ya not folding after putting in this much and getting almost 2-1, have good overlay against a range of TT+/AK and without reads I'm not giving him credit for tighter than that as the big stack, and he could also show up with more worse pairs.

but ya I think the play here is to just dump it to the original raise.

This spot becomes a lot more interesting if we have QQ, and I think we should flat QQ+/AK here and fold everything else.

 

[Myclymn]

In the absence of any read or history with UTG I, probably, call the shove.

I think the equity difference between winning and folding and between folding and losing has to be similar and I would feel I am >50% to win the hand because:

UTG, before the re-raise, has to put me on a big hand; but not necessarily a hand that can stand-up to a shove so the shove is probably +EV for him on a very wide range. In other words, the shove didn't tell me much about his hand except that he probably isn't playing AA.

 

[Rldetheflop]

In the absence of any read or history with UTG I, probably, call the shove.

I think the equity difference between winning and folding and between folding and losing has to be similar and I would feel I am >50% to win the hand because:

UTG, before the re-raise, has to put me on a big hand; but not necessarily a hand that can stand-up to a shove so the shove is probably +EV for him on a very wide range. In other words, the shove didn't tell me much about his hand except that he probably isn't playing AA.

1)I dont feel like doing the math but my gut tells me this is not the case

2)Really? Personally I think that KK+ is the range we should be 3 betting here and I dont know about you but I'm not folding KK pf.

 

[baudib1]

I don't think our equity is > 50% but it's probably around 40-45%

 

[10058765]

Personally, after thinking this over again and again, I think I should have been folding here, to wait for a better spot.
Why ?

-just waiting at least an orbit, to see how everyone acts (loose table, tight table ?).
-avoid a confrontation with the big stack this early at the table.
-meanwhile, very assumable climb somewhat in the pricestructure, as you can see there's a big difference between 9th and 7th or even 6th.

Anyone disagree ?

 

[Rldetheflop]

Personally, after thinking this over again and again, I think I should have been folding here, to wait for a better spot.
Why ?

-just waiting at least an orbit, to see how everyone acts (loose table, tight table ?).
-avoid a confrontation with the big stack this early at the table.
-meanwhile, very assumable climb somewhat in the pricestructure, as you can see there's a big difference between 9th and 7th or even 6th.

Anyone disagree ?

all very good reasons to fold PF here imo.

 

[baudib1]

ya as I said previously I think not putting any money in there pot here is the best move, and I'm not one who believes in trying to dodge coolers in donkaments.

With no reads on UTG I'll assign him a default super tight range; plus the fact that we're in EP and there's a 15% chance or so someone behind gets a hand they want to 4-bet.

FTs with structure like this are rough, I'd play incredibly nitty. But after putting so much money in I'd be committed to going with the hand especially if your read on most of the players was that it was going to be tough to steal.

 

[10058765]

Finally, the outcome is clear.
I lost to QQ and finished 9th.
This was the 2nd time within 1 week I reached the FT in the 90 grand.
Finished 4th and 9th which I think isn't a bad result after all, but personally I'm a bit dissapointed, because after playing decent for hours, in both cases I think I screwed up in the end, making costly mistakes.
Which brings me to a leak in my game.
I have to find something to make me able to stay sharp and focussed til the end.

Thank u all for the replies and I wish u GL ,best play and rewards at the tables.

 

[Rldetheflop]

Finally, the outcome is clear.
I lost to QQ and finished 9th.
This was the 2nd time within 1 week I reached the FT in the 90 grand.
Finished 4th and 9th which I think isn't a bad result after all, but personally I'm a bit dissapointed, because after playing decent for hours, in both cases I think I screwed up in the end, making costly mistakes.
Which brings me to a leak in my game.
I have to find something to make me able to stay sharp and focussed til the end.

Thank u all for the replies and I wish u GL ,best play and rewards at the tables.

Interesting play by villain here. given the range UTG+1 should be 3 betting in this spot it sure seems like a big risk for a huge chunk of his stack with QQ here. QQ is too strong to fold and if I really hate flatting here oop and with this stack I think i can 4 bet and get a pretty clear answer as a flat would indicate I am ahead and a 5 bet shove would pretty much mean we are beat and we could still get away with a pretty good stack.