$530 NLHE MTT: How terribly did I play my AA?

[Jacki Burkhart]

2nd level of a live $530 buy in tourney. starting stacks are 10,000 and I have 11,000. Blinds are 50/100

folds to the Cutoff who has 10k. He makes it 250.

He is a very solid, TAG. good player, doesn't get out of line too much, especially early in a tourney he is just biding his time waiting for sets and monsters while collecting reads. He is actually a very similar player to me. I played with him all day 2 days ago and I feel like he probably has respect for my game.

I am on the Button and look down at . I reraise to 700

Blinds fold, he re-raises to 2,100. I decide he MUST have Kings. It's a slight possibility he has QQ or AA or AK. I'm pretty sure he would just flat my 3bet with JJ or AQ. I decide to just flat instead of 5bet because I've got the button and I know what he has so I should be able to control the pot and make good decisions.

Pot contains 4,350

Flop comes

barf!

He checks, I don't fall for his trap and I check.

turn is and he leads out for 2,100.

Now...I'm pretty sure he has a set of Kings. But I just picked up the nut flush draw and it is mildly possible he has AA or AK. Also, if he has the then I might have implied odds if I make my flush.

should I call?

 

[left52side]

wow this is A tricky spot here,honestly I would have four bet shove pre probably especially since you got A good read on this persons range.
It is A tough spot now because there is quite A bit in the middle but also alot of scary board there to.

 

[kanselau]

never check the flop here , if he is slow playing his set then he is def looking to c/r.
By checking the flop you gain nothing , but loose a lot.

if we bet and he raises , pat yourself on the back for the good read and fold. Hes got it, he doesn't get out of line much so I cant see him doing it with QQ, he would might raise with AKs though.

If we bet and he flats , then we get a lot of info from his action on the turn.
If he suddenly fires out on the turn , then we can be confident with our read and fold , if he checks then QQ is his most probable hand now.

By showing strength we polarise villains hand further. by checking behind we give villain a free card and we learn nothing.

If villain is really solid and a great player he is capable of 4 betting wider than QQ+AK IMO (especialy if he knows that you think that he is really solid player) .
and in this case we dominate on this flop and should take it down by betting.

 

[AtiFCOD]

2nd level of a live $530 buy in tourney. starting stacks are 10,000 and I have 11,000. Blinds are 50/100

folds to the Cutoff who has 10k. He makes it 250.

He is a very solid, TAG. good player, doesn't get out of line too much, especially early in a tourney he is just biding his time waiting for sets and monsters while collecting reads. He is actually a very similar player to me. I played with him all day 2 days ago and I feel like he probably has respect for my game.

I am on the Button and look down at . I reraise to 700

Blinds fold, he re-raises to 2,100. I decide he MUST have Kings. It's a slight possibility he has QQ or AA or AK. I'm pretty sure he would just flat my 3bet with JJ or AQ. I decide to just flat instead of 5bet because I've got the button and I know what he has so I should be able to control the pot and make good decisions.

Pot contains 4,350

Flop comes

barf!

He checks, I don't fall for his trap and I check.

turn is and he leads out for 2,100.

Now...I'm pretty sure he has a set of Kings. But I just picked up the nut flush draw and it is mildly possible he has AA or AK. Also, if he has the then I might have implied odds if I make my flush.

should I call?

If you KNOW he has kings, then you should have 5-bet and make him go allin preflop. Then you have 80% to win.

Now after turn....it's a very tough decision. He can have AK, but if you are SURE that he got the kings, just fold. He can also have tens (very lil chance). You are so deep, still remain a lot of chips to play with IMO.

 

[Arjonius]

While it's only 1 combo, can you rule AA out of his range?

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

No I cannot rule AA or AK out of his range, but I feel KK is by far the most likely.

Of course, on that flop I wished I had 5bet preflop...but at the time I felt like because I have the button and a deep stack there is no need to get it in with 1 pair here. I knew that 20% of the time I would bust the tourney, but 0% would I bust if the flop came with a K. If stacks were shallower, or I was OOP I would have gone all in preflop. At least that was my strategy at the time, I really did have a plan-maybe it's a poor strategy?

 

[duggs]

he has a strong range, unless you expect him to fold it 5bet pre easy, as played meh call turn

 

[duggs]

except if an A falls or a 789 JQT JT9hhh xxxhhh etc falls you are going to lose action

 

[teepack]

This is a toughie. I always try to maximize the preflop pot with AA, and so once he reraised to 2100, I probably would have shoved. If him getting re-raised twice preflop by the same person doesn't tell him that you are sitting on a monster, then there is probably nothing you can do to get him out of the hand. At that point, you just gotta take your shot.

That being said, a $530 buy-in tourney may give me pause. That's a lot of jack to risk going out early, but hey, if you gotta lose, it might as well be with AA in a hand that you played to perfection.

 

[nykaktak]

Yeah, the situation is really not easy,if he played his pocket KK on the river he got the nuts,but on the other hand there will be a pocket 10 10,then he has a full house, you only beat his AK , and of course it was necessary to raise 2100 to move and try to bring the case to all in preflop

 

[Poker Orifice]

then there is probably nothing you can do to get him out of the hand. At that point, you just gotta take your shot.

That being said, a $530 buy-in tourney may give me pause. That's a lot of jack to risk going out early, but hey, if you gotta lose, it might as well be with AA in a hand that you played to perfection.

bit of a derail but > why do we want to 'get him out of the hand' (pre)? If you can get villain to call it off here pre, this is the most ideal result EVER.


OP, not sure why we don't 5-bet pre?

also > I'm not folding turn here w NFD.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I actually thought he might fold if I 5bet preflop, but in the event he wasn't in a folding mood I could still save most of my stack if the flop came terrible.

I understand those that say 5bet preflop and in an online game or lower stakes game I definitely would. I don't know how many of you play live deep stacked events...but the atmosphere is much different. Good players aren't looking to get it in early with 1 pair. I mean, yeah if he shoves on me I'll call but otherwise the reason to select a deep stacked tourney is to get to use and develop your post flop skills. It's not like online where if you bust early with AA preflop you can just say "oh well" and sign up for another tourney 5 mins later. You drive 4+ hours spend hundreds of dollars to play in a 2 day deep stacked tourney and if you don't have to be all in preflop in the first hour, you don't want to be.

Now, I'm not saying 5betting is wrong or should be avoided but it's not the only way to profitably play the hand. My thought at the time was flatting with the button in a heads up pot maximizes my profit if the flop comes J hi and it minimizes my risk in case of a cooler situation.

Still...hated myself on the flop...

So.... I called the turn bet. River is a brick. He checked to me so I had a glimmer of hope that he had AK...I checked behind and he tabled the I don't know why he checked the river? Afraid of flush?

 

[duggs]

i got KK in pre in the 2nd hand of a live tournament with deep stacks with double the buy in.
I also play deep stacked cash online. not trying to stack off pre with the nuts is a huge error if you think people aren't going to fold, i just really really doubt villain is ever going to 4bet/fold KK for 1/4

more importantly this ISNT a deep stacked tournament, you have average stack being 100bb on the 2nd level, id imagine levels are less than an hour.

100bb isn't all that hard to get in pre v worse hands.

I mean if you really think he is going to fold KK to a jam are you auto 3bet/5bet jamming A3s?

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

more importantly this ISNT a deep stacked tournament, you have average stack being 100bb on the 2nd level, id imagine levels are less than an hour.

100bb isn't all that hard to get in pre v worse hands.

I mean if you really think he is going to fold KK to a jam are you auto 3bet/5bet jamming A3s?

The blinds are an hour. This is a pretty deep stacked event for live poker. Nearly the same structure as bracelet events except a bigger starting stack than most bracelet events.

But that's not the main point.

I recognize that 5betting pre is a profitable option, perhaps even the standard move but does everyone really think it's the ONLY way to play this hand?

I guess I'm surprised that everyone is hung up on the preflop action; if flatting a 4bet with AA in position is an error, I don't think it is a huge error. 88% of the time a K won't hit the flop. 66% of the time neither an A or K will hit and I'll make more chips in a safer situation.

I guess my decision point on this hand was the turn, so that was where I had hoped to hear opinions.

Thanks for all the replies and advice! I really am listening...

 

[byrnsiey330]

While it's only 1 combo, can you rule AA out of his range?

no, but doesn't that logic imply that you can't rule out any hand? You are making an educated guess that the odds of two hands being dealt AA is 1 in 24,172. So yes, you can pretty much rule it out.

It was good you didn't shove pre, because while you have 80% equity, it's just to early in a tournament to suffer a bad beat. Getting all your chips in the pot this early in the tournament isn't something you want to do unless you have something like 90%+ equity. Everyone is going to suffer a bad beat, but you are going to want a big enough stack that you can recover, and at this point in the tournament, it would be very tough to recover.

You're equity against his hand range on the flop (AA-1 combo, KK, AK) is still 60%. Now if you have him strictly on KK your equity is a scary 11%. Good job checking behind, get a free card.

Turn
Equity against range: 71%
Equity against KK: 23%

Your pot odds are 3 to 1, so you need 25% equity to continue profitably.

If you are absolutely sure that he is on KK, then its a close call, but a fold. Unless you think you could get enough money out of him on a flush to be profitable.

 

[duggs]

thing is i think its a huge error,more importantly flatting to avoid him flopping a set is a HUGE error. if you flatted because he has heaps of bluffs and you don't think he calls off enough and plan to call barrels then fine. thats clearly not the case here

 

[Arjonius]

no, but doesn't that logic imply that you can't rule out any hand? You are making an educated guess that the odds of two hands being dealt AA is 1 in 24,172. So yes, you can pretty much rule it out..

Those are simple a priori odds with no information to go on.

But we're at the flop. We've have info from the pre-flop action, plus we've seen what flopped. Ruling out AA at this point just because of the a priori odds is ridiculous.

 

[Arjonius]

I recognize that 5betting pre is a profitable option, perhaps even the standard move but does everyone really think it's the ONLY way to play this hand?

I guess I'm surprised that everyone is hung up on the preflop action; if flatting a 4bet with AA in position is an error, I don't think it is a huge error. 88% of the time a K won't hit the flop. 66% of the time neither an A or K will hit and I'll make more chips in a safer situation.

I'm not particularly surprised. It's easy to look at a posted and and to ignore or under-weight tournament meta-factors, which can be rather subjective, because most of us are far more accustomed to online.

The real question here isn't if flatting the 4bet is sub-optimal. It's whether the meta factors are important enough to warrant making the sub-optimal choice. Of course, this also involves evaluating how sub-optimal that choice is.

Fwiw, I think flatting is reasonable enough to consider. I'd 5bet, but that's based on my decision matrix, not yours.

 

[AtiFCOD]

I actually thought he might fold if I 5bet preflop, but in the event he wasn't in a folding mood I could still save most of my stack if the flop came terrible.

I understand those that say 5bet preflop and in an online game or lower stakes game I definitely would. I don't know how many of you play live deep stacked events...but the atmosphere is much different. Good players aren't looking to get it in early with 1 pair. I mean, yeah if he shoves on me I'll call but otherwise the reason to select a deep stacked tourney is to get to use and develop your post flop skills. It's not like online where if you bust early with AA preflop you can just say "oh well" and sign up for another tourney 5 mins later. You drive 4+ hours spend hundreds of dollars to play in a 2 day deep stacked tourney and if you don't have to be all in preflop in the first hour, you don't want to be.

Now, I'm not saying 5betting is wrong or should be avoided but it's not the only way to profitably play the hand. My thought at the time was flatting with the button in a heads up pot maximizes my profit if the flop comes J hi and it minimizes my risk in case of a cooler situation.

Still...hated myself on the flop...

So.... I called the turn bet. River is a brick. He checked to me so I had a glimmer of hope that he had AK...I checked behind and he tabled the I don't know why he checked the river? Afraid of flush?

The problem is that most of the players (me too) cant - or very rare - fold aces on the flop. So if you decided to play with aces postflop, then a fold option should be in the plans too.

Yeah I'm an online player and I guess the biggest buy-in for me was ~160 dollars (and I won the ticket via satelite). But I cant believe any player can fold kings preflop since most of the times they are ahead. Especially nowadays, when the preflop play became very agressive. So 99% he would have called the 5-bet allin. I think this is the most profitable sollution in this situation. 80% to double up, 20% to say goodbye, good deal.

This reminds me this hand:

Gold vs Farha, High stakes poker, funny

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

thing is i think its a huge error,more importantly flatting to avoid him flopping a set is a HUGE error. if you flatted because he has heaps of bluffs and you don't think he calls off enough and plan to call barrels then fine. thats clearly not the case here

I didn't flat because I'm afraid he'll flop a set. I flatted because of the composite of several factors and possibilities.

at the time the #1 reason I flatted was because I honestly thought he MIGHT fold, and yes I believe this player is capable of folding KK preflop to my 5bet all in...not in too many situations would it come up, but this might be one of them. I also flatted because if he did flop a set I knew I could get away. I also flatted because I had the button and that would leave me wide open to control the pot size. I flatted because I thought, with the help of the button, I could outplay this player and squeeze more chips out of him when I'm ahead and save chips when he sucks out. I also flatted because of meta-game considerations and because of my tournament game plan which is to to slowly chip up and not play big pots until I have to, or until I have 2 pair or better. I also flatted because I am really good at taking down small and medium pots with marginal hands and I'll have lots of opportunities later to make up for some missed equity now, provided that I stay in the tournament.

so I'll have to respectfully disagree with it being a HUGE mistake. it may be techinally sub-optimal when considering 1 hand in a vacuum; but I doubt it's a HUGE mistake.

but Duggs, I really do appreciate all your thoughts and insights. you and I don't always see hands the same way...but hearing your opinions and thought processes has really been helping me to analyze and re-think my game. You always give me a lot to think about and that is the way I learn, I like to over analyze and break things down to their minutiae (in case you haven't noticed) so please keep the feedback coming.

I just don't want to come across like one of those stubborn people who staunchly defends their position with their mind closed and their arms folded across their chest...I am definitely taking it all in.

The problem is that most of the players (me too) cant - or very rare - fold aces on the flop. So if you decided to play with aces postflop, then a fold option should be in the plans too.

Yeah I'm an online player and I guess the biggest buy-in for me was ~160 dollars (and I won the ticket via satelite). But I cant believe any player can fold kings preflop since most of the times they are ahead. Especially nowadays, when the preflop play became very agressive. So 99% he would have called the 5-bet allin. I think this is the most profitable sollution in this situation. 80% to double up, 20% to say goodbye, good deal.

This reminds me this hand:

Gold vs Farha, High stakes poker, funny

View on Poker - Jamie Gold and Sam Farha battle on High Stakes Poker as they hold KK vs. AA! - YouTube

That sammy farha/Jamie Gold hand is hilarious!

as for me...I can fold AA on the flop and I have done so too many times to count. I actually would have folded on this flop if he had bet at least half the pot, I woulda folded no problem. I also woulda folded the river no problem if he bet basically anything more than 1/3 the pot.

As far as folding KK preflop, there are players who can do this. I've seen them, I know them, and I believe this guy is one who could fold KK preflop, though it would still be hard to do and very stack size dependent. I have never actually done it, though there have been a couple times where I almost did, because I just knew they had AA, but by the time I figured out they had AA I already had too much of my stack in to fold. In both of those situations I would have folded my KK preflop if I were deeper stacked. I was correct both times, too, they had AA and I was out.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

This has all gotten me VERY interested in just HOW big of an error it is to flat with a monster vs. re-raising with it. My gut feeling is that it is a slightly lower +EV than re-raising for value. But, I'm really not sure so I'm going to attempt to do the math. This is going to be the most complex equity calculation I've ever done...I don't claim this will be pretty!

Line A: 5bet all in with AA vs suspected KK
pot contains 4,350 after 4bet. (I include my call because I'm never folding. it's raise or call) effective stacks behind = 7,900

If I 5bet all in, and he folds I'll win +4350

If I 5bet all in and he calls then 80% of the time I'll win 4,350+7,900=12,250 x 0.80= 9,800 and 20% of the time he calls and I'll lose 7,900 x 0.20= -1,580 for a total +EV when he calls of +8,220

so, how often do I expect him to fold or call?

I started with 50% calling since I thought it was reasonably likely he might fold his range (most likely KK) to my shove.

if he folds 50% of the time, then I make 4,350 x 0.50 = +2,175
if he calls 50% of the time then I make 8,220 x 0.50 = + 4,110
for a total equity from pushing if he calls 50% of +EV 6,285

if he folds 30% then I make 4,350 x 0.30 = +1,305
if he calls 70% then I make 8,220 x 0.70 = +5,754
total equity from pushing if he calls 70% is +EV 7,059

if he folds 10% then I make 4,350 x 0.10 = +435
if he calls 90% then I make 8,220 x 0.90 = +7,398
total equity from pushing if he calls 90% = +EV 7,833

If he never folds then I make 8,220 x 1.00= +EV 8,220

hope I did that math correctly...

In this particular situation, I thought it was fairly likely he would fold. maybe not quite 50%...somewhere between 30-50% he would fold. And while I strongly suspect he has KK, I don't actually KNOW he has KK...


Line B: Flatting the 4 bet with AA vs. suspected KK
preflop pot contains 2,100 + 2,100 + 150 blinds = 4,350 effective stacks behind = 7,900

66% of the time the flop will come with no A and no K. There are too many permutations of flops, and check/bet/call/fold combinations to even consider so I'll just go with a standard line. He checks to the raiser and I make my standard Cbet about about 2/3 the pot. so in this case I'll bet ~2,800 If the flop has no A he'll call. Now, the pot contains 4,350 + 2,800 + 2,800 = 9,950 going to turn. effective stacks behind are 5,100.

We'll assume, for simplicity sake that any A or K kills the action for the rest of the hand and no more chips will go in the pot (that's obviously NOT true since I DID put chips in the pot after the K hit ). So my flop equity in his calling of the 2,800 bet 66% of the time = 1,848

now, to the turn...and this is where the math gets very dubious... 90% of the time the turn will come with no A and no K. The turn bet will be all in from either of us, and the other will be basically forced to call, and 95% of the time the AA will hold. so the turn equity is all in 5,100 x 0.66 (had to get a good flop) x 0.90 (had to get a good turn) x 0.95 (have to hold up) = +3,030

so total equity of line B is 4,350 + 1,848 + 3,030 = +EV 9,228

this completely ignores all the other flops that might freeze up the action, for instance if the flop comes TJQ, then even while I'm ahead I'll be terrified to extract value for fear of QQ and AK already beating me and KK having a nice draw...I don't really know how to quantify that, but I think it is fair to discount the +EV by at least 15% because of all the other flops and turns that could freeze the action, not to mention he could just figure me for AA and fold without any scare cards...or even a Q could be a scare card for him since now he's only beating AK and JJ....so all that together brings it down to +EV 7,834 for line B....obviously a lot of guesses and assumptions being made here...

That is actually much higher than I would have thought, so I probably did some math wrong somewhere along the way. feel free to correct any errors for me.

My gut instinct was that shoving would be about +7,000 and flatting would be about +6,000

 

[duggs]

The assumption that some one would 4b/f KK is really odd, why would someone elect to 4bet fold the 2nd nuts when they have the opportunity to call the 3bet?

 

[Arjonius]

The assumption that some one would 4b/f KK is really odd, why would someone elect to 4bet fold the 2nd nuts when they have the opportunity to call the 3bet?

One possible reason is because of the structure. I suspect you're used to 1500 starting stacks where, after only a few levels, the stack to pot ratio is such that you can no longer fold after 4betting because your 4bet pot commits you. The deeper and slower the structure, the more levels until this happens.

 

[duggs]

One possible reason is because of the structure. I suspect you're used to 1500 starting stacks where, after only a few levels, the stack to pot ratio is such that you can no longer fold after 4betting because your 4bet pot commits you. The deeper and slower the structure, the more levels until this happens.

no, i can't remember anything other than sit and goes starting with 1500 chips. note i didn't say 4bet/folding, I said 4bet/folding KK!!!! as in taking the 2nd nuts, electing not to flat a 3bet. and 4bet/fold it.

 

[rzepa1881]

AA is the best starting hand, it aldo makes big troubles .. If u do not hit the 3 of aces or a full house its pretty hard to play this hand .. Its hard to drop aces i know , and i do not know any person who can do it. In my oppinion(i may be totally wrong ) with Pocket aces im goin all in