$500 NLHE Deep Stacked: I hate poker

[Passion_play]

Tuff spot to be in here!
Always nice to see a flop with JJ, however, more then likely he has an over pair to your JJ. I think the bet of his was bad, but he did you a favour if you folded them JJ's.
How did the rest of the tourny go for you after this?
hands like these can really throw you off your game sometimes! You have to trust your instincts and beleive you played it the best way it could have been.

 

[F Paulsson]

Can we turn this question around ask it like this instead?

What percentage of villains do we give credit for outlevelling us and shoving with AA (or TT) here because they think we'll think they must be bluffing?

Or, what percentage of villains do we think are dumb enough to be "protecting" their AA by shoving on the mother of all dry flops?

 

[TiltFish]

Can we turn this question around ask it like this instead?

What percentage of villains do we give credit for outlevelling us and shoving with AA (or TT) here because they think we'll think they must be bluffing?

Or, what percentage of villains do we think are dumb enough to be "protecting" their AA by shoving on the mother of all dry flops?

Good point. I can't really ever see TT shoving here.

AA won't shove too often. If I was the villian I'd be putting Zybomb on AK,AQ,QQ,JJ,TT,99,88 based on the call preflop (I would think he would shove with AA,KK at this point). And based on the check on the flop I'd expect him to have AK,AQ most of the time. So shoving with AA for the villian is extremely unlikely.

If the villian had better than JJ he would have to have QQ or KK.

 

[Zybomb]

Can we turn this question around ask it like this instead?

What percentage of villains do we give credit for outlevelling us and shoving with AA (or TT) here because they think we'll think they must be bluffing?

Or, what percentage of villains do we think are dumb enough to be "protecting" their AA by shoving on the mother of all dry flops?

Thank You

Excellent rephrasing of the situation at hand

 

[AUPhoenix]

$500 Buy IN

First, let me say I would love just to be able to play in a tourney with that buy-in.

My opinion, is you were pot committed when you made the call of his 3 bet. I think if you were going to call you should have been ready to play for all your chips on a hope and a prayer. I do not think he would have 3 bet with just ace king or ace queen. You have to put him on at least queens or better.

PH swears he can dodge bullets, baby. I think you should have dodged them this time.

 

[FlopMeaSet]

I think this situation is interesting.

I would have folded the 3bet pre-flop depending on the villain's stats (if you had any). I mean Jacks against a 3bet puts you against at LEAST against QQ+ or AQ+ which at best gives you a coin flip and at worse you are dominated. At this point in the tournament if you can avoid 50/50s you want to.

I think the shove is odd... and to me doesn't scream AA/KK/QQ but rather AK. Then again I have seen shoves before instead of continuation bets to make people's hands look 'weaker'. Maybe the intent of his shove is 'look, i want you to think i missed the flop, and i want you to think i have the AK'.

 

[Makwa]

in with towst and babe and others:

Fold or push the 3 bet PF

If u called then you either a coin flip or dominated on that flop.

Js are always trouble as we can see from above analyses, specially OOP.

 

[Zybomb]

Without responding to specific responses I will make a few general comments about consensus' I think to be incorrect.

- Fold or Shove preflop. This is just bananas. Sure calling puts us in tough spots, but simply avoiding a tough spot is not a good enough reason to fold JJ to a 3 bet, particularly from he big stack. Shoving is pretty horrible IMO, bc we'll rarely get calls from TT, and thus only get them from AK and QQ+. We'll probably fold out AQ which flips with us is about the only upside I can think of to shove

- A 3 bet from the big stack means QQ+ or AK. Equally bananas. Villains 3 bet range could easily be 22+, suited connectors AT+ KT+. Of course it could be much narrower also, but in no way can we limit it to QQ+, AK.

Rather than focus on this aspect of the hand, instead as FP mentioned focus on the decision we now face. If villain does have QQ+ how likley is he to overshove 17k into a 10k on a T22 flop (as was said, either on a level, expecting that we'll think that he must be bluffing, or on a "protection" I don't want my Aces cracked -- or villains Ace to hit on my KK / QQ? )
Will villain show up with QQ+ more often than AK/AQ or smaller pairs?

Does our very playable stack size and the fact that the bubble is 100 spots away affect our thought process?

 

[sactokid544]

Can we turn this question around ask it like this instead?

What percentage of villains do we give credit for outlevelling us and shoving with AA (or TT) here because they think we'll think they must be bluffing?

Or, what percentage of villains do we think are dumb enough to be "protecting" their AA by shoving on the mother of all dry flops?

I think that's the right question to ask.. But, villian would have to assume that HERO is capable of considering this line of logic. I'm positive that at this level this DOES happen quite often but I think this only happens when the opponents know that multi-level thinking is possible from their opponent AND to which caliber.

From what OP is stating, he hasn't been at the table long and thus, villian doesn't exactly have a solid read either. So how can villian know that using this logic is going to be profitable? When we don't know anything about new players don't we normally default to play more straight-forward?

Since the pot is already large after the flop, villian knows that ANY c-bet that's called is going to pot commit you anyways. So, in a sense, ANY bet he makes is the same as putting you AI.

So, if he c-bet with AK and gets called and bricks on turn, you are pot committed and he is drawing to 5 outs with only 1 card to come. Makes it harder to keep applying pressure.

So, why not keep applying pressure with the most fold equity??? From villians eyes, we are near the money, if he loses, he's average stack, if you call with JJ, QQ, he has outs to become a big stack AND knock a player out. If he has something like AK, he definitely doesn't put you on KK+. So maybe he convinced himself that he has fold equity AND 5 outs if he gets called...

PLUS, if we are dealing with a crafty villian and he assumes that everyone at $500NL is capable of strong multi-level thinking, then maybe he shoves on a bluff and assumes you are going to the exact logic you just went through, causing you to fold...? If we are going to give credit for villian shoving AA for the logic stated in this thread, we need to give thought of this possibillity happening.

EDIT: So, to answer the question above, I wouldn't give villian a HIGH percentage when we are dealing with unknowns. When we've observed play and we've played a few pots at this level, then increase the percentage.

 

[Egon Towst]

I don`t advocate shoving preflop. I do, however, think that it is reasonable to fold in response to the reraise.

We know nothing much about the opponent`s tendencies, except that he apparently doesn`t 3-bet often. If we assume that his 3-bet percentage is fairly standard (say 5%-7%, it may be less if he is a real nit), it follows that there is no hand in his range which we flat-out beat. We are either dominated by a bigger pair or flipping against overcards.

Given that we have a perfectly playable stack, we have no need to take a coinflip and can afford to wait for a better spot, imo.