$5 NL HE STT: Rivered straight getting checkraised on paired board

[fundiver199]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

STT

Buy-in

5

Game Options

1. Bounty
2. Turbo

Currency

$

Game is a $5 turbo KO 9-man SnG on Stars. Opponent has stats of VPIP 33 / PFR 1 with an aggression factor of 0,3 over 390 hands. Are you paying off this river jam? Perhaps doing something different leading up to this point in the hand? Please note that Hero was the effective stack, so it was only 625 more to call getting around 3:1.

pokerstars, $4.54 + $0.46 - Hold'em No Limit - 25/50 (6 ante) - 6 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 5,153 (103 bb)
MP: 1,326 (27 bb)
CO: 1,305 (26 bb)
BU (Hero): 1,241 (25 bb)
SB: 923 (18 bb)
BB: 3,552 (71 bb)

Pre-Flop: (111) Hero is BTN with J♦ 9♦
UTG calls 50, 2 players fold, Hero raises to 150, 2 players fold, UTG calls 100

Flop: (411) 4♠ T♥ Q♠ (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets 164, UTG calls 164

Turn: (739) Q♥ (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: (739) K♦ (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets 296, UTG raises to 4,833 (all-in), BU (Hero)?

 

[Poker Orifice]

I callzzzzz (will expand on why, later)

 

[puzzlefish]

This looks a lot like that cash game hand you recently posted, but now the villain isn't really trapping and hero has barely any chips left. I think if you are beat here, you are beat and it's time to move on to the next game. I would call.

 

[fundiver199]

I callzzzzz (will expand on why, later)

This looks a lot like that cash game hand you recently posted, but now the villain isn't really trapping and hero has barely any chips left. I think if you are beat here, you are beat and it's time to move on to the next game. I would call.

I hear you. But what does a very passive Villain realistically have here, that I beat? I need to be good 1 in 4 times to make a profitable call.

 

[puzzlefish]

I hear you. But what does a very passive Villain realistically have here, that I beat? I need to be good 1 in 4 times to make a profitable call.

KX that isn't KQ (really hoping for AK..)
QX that isn't KQ, QT or Q4 (I think we can for sure rule out Q4, maybe not QTs)
J9

It really does seem that a river jam like that is very nutty, but could potentially be Qx that's not a boat. Could also be a boat. Really can't tell the way it is played.

Would you say "well played" if shown trips here after folding?

 

[fundiver199]

KX that isn't KQ (really hoping for AK..)
QX that isn't KQ, QT or Q4 (I think we can for sure rule out Q4, maybe not QTs)
J9

It really does seem that a river jam like that is very nutty, but could potentially be Qx that's not a boat. Could also be a boat. Really can't tell the way it is played.

This is a player with a 1% PFR, which mean, that if they have AK or JJ-QQ, they are going to limp-call preflop. They are not even raising with hands that good. Not mentioned in my original post, they have a 3-bet of 1%, so likely they are limping everything and then limp-raising AA and KK. They also have an aggression factor of 0,3, which mean, they call 3 times more often, than they bet or raise. A neutral number is around 2. And for that reason I think, they would just check-call again with KX and maybe lead with QX, after I check back turn.

 

[puzzlefish]

This is a player with a 1% PFR, which mean, that if they have AK or JJ-QQ, they are going to limp-call preflop. They are not even raising with hands that good. Not mentioned in my original post, they have a 3-bet of 1%, so likely they are limping everything and then limp-raising AA and KK. They also have an aggression factor of 0,3, which mean, they call 3 times more often, than they bet or raise. A neutral number is around 2. And for that reason I think, they would just check-call again with KX and maybe lead with QX, after I check back turn.

This sounds very conflicting because on the one hand you describe a passive calling station except for when they have AA and KK, but then how do these stats translate to their actions on turn and river? I think these stats just deal with pre-flop play, do they not?

 

[fundiver199]

This sounds very conflicting because on the one hand you describe a passive calling station except for when they have AA and KK, but then how do these stats translate to their actions on turn and river? I think these stats just deal with pre-flop play, do they not?

Aggression factor (AF) is the number of bets or raises devided by number of calls made on the flop, turn and river. So 0,3 mean, they only bet or raise 3 times for every 10 times, they call on the flop, turn or river. Preflop stats are also somewhat relevant, because preflop passivity tend to carry over to postflop. This is not always the case though, since some players will limp and call a lot preflop but then donk bet a ton a flops. But then they dont have an AF of 0,3.

 

[puzzlefish]

Aggression factor (AF) is the number of bets or raises devided by number of calls made on the flop, turn and river. So 0,3 mean, they only bet or raise 3 times for every 10 times, they call on the flop, turn or river. Preflop stats are also somewhat relevant, because preflop passivity tend to carry over to postflop. This is not always the case though, since some players will limp and call a lot preflop but then donk bet a ton a flops. But then they dont have an AF of 0,3.

The biggest tell is the jam on the river that usually signifies that you are never good here. However I still think he may have spiked trip Q somehow and thought he was good all along.

Don't leave us hanging. @Poker Orifice isn't going to be able to formulate his thoughts before his funeral.

 

[fundiver199]

The biggest tell is the jam on the river that usually signifies that you are never good here. However I still think he may have spiked trip Q somehow and thought he was good all along.

That is obviously the main concern if folding here. We dont want to fall victim to an accidental value bluff. That is, where the opponent think, they are betting or raising for value, but we end up folding the best hand.

Don't leave us hanging.

As you might have guessed, I folded. And Villain did not show. I am still ok with this decision. But against more normal players I would definitely lean towards a call.

 

[300HPGOD]

Im a little late to the game on this one. I'd like to know what your thinking (and not saying it was bad but just want to know) was for pre flop. We know that we are going against a player that is 33/1 so they are basically raising pre with AA and KK and thats it. They have many other strong starting hands that you, me and others would open but they would limp so why do we raise here pre with a speculative hand? SB behind us has a jam stack which would make us fold and we give away more than 10% of our stack when that happens. Depending on blinds and what their tendencies were I think I over limp here a lot and play the flop in position against a passive player and the blinds or worse case fold away a blind. My guess is you wanted isolation which I get but why then you choose 3 BBs instead of 3.5BBs or 4BBs. Again, Im not criticizing cause I suck. Im just trying pick your brain on your pre flop thoughts and plans.

Flop: Seems logical to c bet here and I dig the sizing. When villain calls I would be thinking I am behind to a pair of some sort at the least.

Turn: This is an interesting card. If you took away the suits on the all cards, take away the villain the type then this is a no brainer check back. The board is double suited so we would never check Qx here or probably 10x, or a hand like JJ. However, we are going against a passive cat and I will extend that to also that they wouldnt float flop either and only call with something. All their somethings here go up in value due the board pairing (such as 10x is stronger on this turn than it was flop, so is hands like 88 and so forth) so I am with you that even though its double suited board we check back here.

River: Curious on your thoughts on your sizing you picked here. What were you targeting with this size instead of closer to half pot or maybe more than half? I think with villain being passive and therefore more on the risk averse side of things they probably arent calling 10x here even to this small sizing. Therefore, the only calls or more you are getting are from Qx, Kx, and stuff that beats you, or another J9 and with that I think you sizing should be more than what you make it. Its small nitpick but we are only dealing with a 1200 stack coming into this hand so another 100 chips in value (were you to win is decent). The case can be made that a smaller bet saves chips to a raise but this is a passive player and we are not expecting that. So if we are betting for value (which we are here) then I think half pot or so is better here. I agree with what you wrote above that in this case we have to make a fold here and against other players we call here. I think villain can have some Qx here that arent boats and play the hand like this since we checked back turn but at 33 VPIP Ill give them Q8 and above as open limp (just a guess there) and 3 of those are boats or better (you have a blocker to Q9 and QJ too). Good fold against this type of villain.

 

[puzzlefish]

As you might have guessed, I folded. And Villain did not show. I am still ok with this decision. But against more normal players I would definitely lean towards a call.

This must have been very borderline for you to post it, so even though you are okay with it you are still uncertain that it was the correct move.

 

[fundiver199]

Im a little late to the game on this one. I'd like to know what your thinking (and not saying it was bad but just want to know) was for pre flop. We know that we are going against a player that is 33/1 so they are basically raising pre with AA and KK and thats it. They have many other strong starting hands that you, me and others would open but they would limp so why do we raise here pre with a speculative hand? SB behind us has a jam stack which would make us fold and we give away more than 10% of our stack when that happens. Depending on blinds and what their tendencies were I think I over limp here a lot and play the flop in position against a passive player and the blinds or worse case fold away a blind. My guess is you wanted isolation which I get but why then you choose 3 BBs instead of 3.5BBs or 4BBs. Again, Im not criticizing cause I suck. Im just trying pick your brain on your pre flop thoughts and plans.

As you say, I wanted to isolate the limper and knock the blinds out of the pot. I think, this gives me more chance to win postflop without always having to make a hand. It also saves me from some situations, where I flop a pair but someone else have me beat. For instance SB might fold hands like Q9 or K9 facing a 3BB open, whereas he would complete them facing a limp. It would also be a viable option to overlimp though. Even folding would not be crazy, since UTG is the chipleader and has an uncapped limping range.

River: Curious on your thoughts on your sizing you picked here. What were you targeting with this size instead of closer to half pot or maybe more than half? I think with villain being passive and therefore more on the risk averse side of things they probably arent calling 10x here even to this small sizing. Therefore, the only calls or more you are getting are from Qx, Kx, and stuff that beats you, or another J9 and with that I think you sizing should be more than what you make it. Its small nitpick but we are only dealing with a 1200 stack coming into this hand so another 100 chips in value (were you to win is decent). The case can be made that a smaller bet saves chips to a raise but this is a passive player and we are not expecting that. So if we are betting for value (which we are here) then I think half pot or so is better here. I agree with what you wrote above that in this case we have to make a fold here and against other players we call here. I think villain can have some Qx here that arent boats and play the hand like this since we checked back turn but at 33 VPIP Ill give them Q8 and above as open limp (just a guess there) and 3 of those are boats or better (you have a blocker to Q9 and QJ too). Good fold against this type of villain.

If I was deeper, I would bet a bit more. But I did not want to commit myself to the pot and face some really gross situation, if he jammed. One of those, where we are committed but also beat. The other option would be to jam, but that would be a slight overbet, and I think, he might not pay that off with a K. Which is a big part of the range, I am targeting.

This must have been very borderline for you to post it, so even though you are okay with it you are still uncertain that it was the correct move.

I mostly posted it, because I think, its an interesting hand to discuss

 

[Station_Master]

Preflop - I would prefer an overlimp here. T9s feels a bit weak to iso raise especially v the UTG chip leader, who is bound to either call or shove over the top. Also J9s plays better with a higher SPR.

Flop and turn - look fine to me

River - tough spot but I think you have to call. You bet quite small, which is ok given the awkward stack size, but it will induce some villains to try to bluff you and he could be value raising AQ. Also you are getting great pot odds and only.need to be right about 25% of the time.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop - I would prefer an overlimp here. T9s feels a bit weak to iso raise especially v the UTG chip leader, who is bound to either call or shove over the top.

Probably not come over the top very often with a 1% PFR

Also J9s plays better with a higher SPR.

True.

 

[makisaa]

The opponent maybe has the full house or a better straight, but at that point and with the stack you had, better play the hand till the end and risk. You already have the straight!

 

[canbora]

You may very well have been beat, and you could have been right. i can totally see that, you know your villian.........................heres the thing. I think you have to call. You have the straight. If you're beat you're beat. What more are you hoping for in a hand? Boats are rare. You hit a straight. that's a strong strong hand.

mathematically, I don't think calling was wrong at all and I'm sure you know that. You're asking situationally, right? Yeah I mean..that's up to you. If you feel you know them and they do this, then good on ya. You made the right move. ill trust your judgement. And I can back up statistically, yeah when people do this they have a super strong hand, if not the nuts. So you very well could have been right.