$5.50 NLHE STT: Bubble play

[dufferdevon]

$5.50 NL HE STT: Bubble play

pokerstars Game #34933016114: Tournament #209669495, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2009/11/04 21:05:43 ET
Table '209669495 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: djgolfcan (5980 in chips)
Seat 3: mmaloney281 (2175 in chips)
Seat 7: kingslinger1 (3690 in chips)
Seat 9: RADE (1655 in chips)
RADE: posts small blind 75
djgolfcan: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to djgolfcan [Kc Jh]
mmaloney281: folds
kingslinger1: folds
RADE: raises 1505 to 1655 and is all-in
djgolfcan: ??


Is this worth calling ? It's for roughly 30% of my chips and he could be making this move with almost anything.

 

[cjatud2012]

Calling is the right move here, according to ICM, assuming typical play. The Trainer says villain's range is any pair, any ace, K2s+, K9+, Q5s+, QT+, J7s, J9, T6s+, T9, 75s+, 65s, 54s. Against his shove, your calling range is 44+, A3s+, A7+, KTs+, KJ+, QJs+. Since your KJ is at the bottom of your +EV range, though, you may muck it if you believe your opponent is tight.

 

[Jillychemung]

Ran this thru SNGEGT and to make it a slight +ev to call here you only need the SB to be shoving top 30% of hands and if your read is wider than that then you should call.

 

[dufferdevon]

Thanks for the insight. I did end up calling and he flipped over A-5os and it held up. Still went on to finish 2nd and this guy finished 3rd.

 

[Poker Orifice]

I think it's close at best. It is really player read dependent. Villain still has 11bb's and will be otb next hand... and seeing your stack size they can consider that they might have a better chance of being called here... and with other stack not being much deeper than their own.... leads me to believe that they are shoving top 30%+.. maybe much better than that.
I'm always considering (as I'm sure you are from reading your brief post here).. how will calling & losing negatively impact my tourney situation... and does that outweigh the benefits of calling & winning. Here in this spot I think it's pretty close.
Put villain on range and run it thru SNG Wiz and you will have your answer in black & white.

 

[Poker Orifice]

Something else I also try to always keep in mind is... how well do I think villain is familiar with ICM... and how well do I think villain believes that I am familiar with ICM. (especially in the $5 to $10 buyin range for sngs, where you get a real mix of players - - some very knowledgeable... others who are far from knowledgeable). It can become a guessing game at best at times.

 

[chipshuffler]

I would probably prefer a fold here but if you think you have a good read on your opponent, then yeah go ahead, make the call. Pretty much a 50-50 that you jsut have to make your mnid up on quickly i guess.

Good to see you beat that guy in the tourney

 

[Poker Orifice]

Calling is the right move here, according to ICM, assuming typical play. The Trainer says villain's range is any pair, any ace, K2s+, K9+, Q5s+, QT+, J7s, J9, T6s+, T9, 75s+, 65s, 54s. Against his shove, your calling range is 44+, A3s+, A7+, KTs+, KJ+, QJs+. Since your KJ is at the bottom of your +EV range, though, you may muck it if you believe your opponent is tight.

how can you assume that villain's range is as you've outlined? You can't. For all you know.. villain doesn't have a clue about ICM and is only open shoving with top10% (bit of an extreme example.... but sometimes not far off at all). Like I said above.... in the $5-10 buyin range, it's often a guessing game (read above about what the guessing is.. I'm too tired to rewrite it, lol)

 

[AceZWylD]

I agree that this should have been a fold. For a couple of reasons.

1) You have a good stack that can afford to lose the blind in this situation. You are risking 1/3 of your stack on a 50/50 proposition (at best) when villian has taken position and fold equity away from you with the all in move.

2) As mentioned, you are risking 1/3 of your stack on a marginal hand to a desperate player who if doubled up COULD come back to best you if he wins the hand. You can leave him crippled with increasing blinds or double him up and give him a fighting chance while putting yourself back with the rest of the pack. The risk/reward ratio here is not on your side.

3) While I agree that villian needs to be knocked out of the tournament, this isn't the right situation to do so. Err on the side of caution here. If you aren't willing to push him all in prior to his shove, and you need a stronger hand to make a call than to make a raise, then this should be an easy fold. Wait until you can control the betting, and don't push anyone all in until you are confident that you have the best hand to work with.

 

[cjatud2012]

how can you assume that villain's range is as you've outlined? You can't. For all you know.. villain doesn't have a clue about ICM and is only open shoving with top10% (bit of an extreme example.... but sometimes not far off at all). Like I said above.... in the $5-10 buyin range, it's often a guessing game (read above about what the guessing is.. I'm too tired to rewrite it, lol)

That's a good point, his range could be a lot different. I didn't really think about that.

 

[WiZZiM]

Put villain on range and run it thru SNG Wiz and you will have your answer in black & white.

I hate SNG wizz, for one reason, the ranges of hands is mostly incorrect as it doesnt take into account a lot of other factors. so i dont believe it gives accurate results.

you have to be paying attention before this spot. if you believe they are regular sng players then he would know to probably shove anytwo here so its a call.. on the other side if you believe he has no idea and he is simply shoving his decent hands id probably lean towards folding, as your kj doesnt fare too well and is likely dominated or at best a 50 50 with a small pair. or a 60 40 with a lone ace also your not really getting much in the way of pot odds, you only have 150 invested and with no antes your really under no pressure to make this call.

Also if you fold you will still have a lot more chips than the next player, so in later stages you will be able to bully them into folding their blinds if you are still on the bubble...

 

[WiZZiM]

3) While I agree that villian needs to be knocked out of the tournament, this isn't the right situation to do so. .

WHY? this is an ideal situation for a big stack, if you leave the shortstack there the other two players will be forced to fold anything but premium hands, so you can take blinds off them at will as they will not want to risk a call and finish out of the money when there is a guy with only 10 bb's. i know its only 75 150, but when the blinds go up you can hopefully exploit this situation.