$5.50 MTT; 99 in the SB

[royalburrito24]

No reads on villain as I was just rebalanced to this table.
Pretty large raise coming from villain at the cutoff. What is the correct play here?
Is it a straightforward push or can I get away with calling?
I highly doubt I can fold here, but an argument might be able to be made.

Thoughts?

full tilt poker Game #5387190999: $5 + $0.50 Tournament (40867234), Table 64 - 120/240 Ante 25 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:37:54 ET - 2008/02/24
Seat 1: royalburrito24 (4,685)
Seat 2: dsteward (4,051)
Seat 3: psychoana (3,825)
Seat 4: MAP741 (2,350)
Seat 5: spadeholder6 (6,480)
Seat 6: SthreeB (2,430)
Seat 7: ClubberLang78 (8,310)
Seat 8: SES ACE (5,655)
Seat 9: shelliebellie (9,100)
royalburrito24 antes 25
dsteward antes 25
psychoana antes 25
MAP741 antes 25
spadeholder6 antes 25
SthreeB antes 25
ClubberLang78 antes 25
SES ACE antes 25
shelliebellie antes 25
royalburrito24 posts the small blind of 120
dsteward posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to royalburrito24 [9s 9c]
psychoana folds
MAP741 folds
spadeholder6 folds
SthreeB folds
ClubberLang78 folds
SES ACE raises to 1,065
shelliebellie has 15 seconds left to act
shelliebellie folds
royalburrito24 ??

 

[OzExorcist]

The raise is only a little more than 4BB, in a pot with antes I wouldn't have thought it was abnormal.

I think this one's either shove or fold. If you flat call you're out of position for the whole hand, the pot's only offering you about 3:2 which isn't good enough to play for set value, and you've also got the problem of the big blind still to act. If they come in for a raise, or even if they just flat call, you're in a messy situation.

I wouldn't hate shoving in this spot - there's more than enough money in the pot to justify taking a stab at it, there's some chance villain is just on a steal, and by shoving you negate your positional disadvantage. You also make it hard for the big blind to follow you into the pot and give your hand maximum chance to succeed heads up against the villain if you get called.

That said, you're only into the pot for a small blind, there's quite a few shorter stacks on the table and you don't have to risk your tournament here. So I wouldn't hate folding either, though I would figure it for the weaker of the two options.

Are we anywhere near the money yet?

 

[ChuckTs]

A fold is definitely an option and maybe the best.

It's basically push/fold unless you're going to pull a stop n go or something, but I like pushing or folding best. We can't call based on set odds, and for the fact that we really can't continue on most flops UI. If we had reads and villain was somewhat aggressive this would be a very standard resteal all in.

I haven't played tourneys in ages and am kind of torn between the push and the call here.

 

[iMaGiN.]

It's a shove or fold call as stated above. Take your pick, you feeling lucky?

 

[soccerfreakjj10]

I would probably fold because too often I see this turning into an unneccesary race at this point in the tournament but pushing isn't a terrible play either. I could go on but most of it has been covered already.

 

[royalburrito24]

My thought process went a little something like this:
I do not like the idea of a stop n go just because that play is so readable and I feel that my opponent has committed themselves to the pot already with their initial 1/4 stack raise.
Folding here would seem like a very nitty option, and I don't think I can get away from this hand with such a suspiciously large raise from late position.
I chose to re raise all in because of the amount of fold equity I possessed, + the large possibility that my opponent is on a bluff.
Results:
I get called by AQ and my hand fails to hold up.
I believe I made the right play but after getting called and losing, I doubted myself a bit.
Did I make the right move?

 

[ChuckTs]

I don't think it's a big mistake if it is one. This hand becomes tremendously easier with reads; when you're in tough close-ish spots like this, erring on the side of aggression is never really terrible if you have FE (which you did), but neither is taking the cautious route.

I'm just talking out of my ass here, but I don't think that vs an unknown that folding or pushing are terribly bad. Calling here is the big no-no unless you're going to make a move postflop. fwiw I probably fold this and try to get a better read before making moves.

 

[CrackaNACtion]

Im thinking Fold. but if u got a read on him nail him

 

[royalburrito24]

Chuck: I was feeling very confident with my move until what you just said. Could I really get away with folding this and looking for a better spot?
Answer: I guess I could.
But either move is a good move, then?

 

[ChuckTs]

I wouldn't dwell on this one rb - like I said it's really not a huge mistake to push here, though it is a little overly aggressive.

 

[Bentheman87]

I can't believe so many people think you should fold here. The raiser was in steal position so unless he's a rock 99 is well ahead of his range but if he does have two high cards your still 50% to win, and racing right now is not a bad result when your M is only 8. You made the right push IMO.

 

[OzExorcist]

I can't believe so many people think you should fold here. The raiser was in steal position so unless he's a rock 99 is well ahead of his range but if he does have two high cards your still 50% to win, and racing right now is not a bad result when your M is only 8. You made the right push IMO.

Problem is Ben, not everyone knows that the cutoff is the new button. If we're only new to the table and have no reads on the villain, we don't know what they could be making this move with. Maybe they're a calling station, and we actually have no fold equity. Maybe they're a rock and they'd only make this move with JJ+.

As has been said above, a shove here wouldn't be wrong. But a fold, though it is conservative, wouldn't be wrong either.

Think about it this way: with 66 or 77, would you be instantly shoving?

 

[Bentheman87]

66-77 are a lot harder to play and I think I could find it in me to fold these hands here. 99+ are shoving hands though. And we do have some fold equity here. Some1 correct me if I'm wrong but his opponent would be getting 1.7:1 pot odds if we shove, so it's not like he has a mandatory call with any two cards.

 

[OzExorcist]

But again, you're assuming the villain is familiar with concepts like pot odds. We've only just sat down at the table, for all we know they could be the biggest calling station ever.

Also, I'm gonna put it to you that if you can consider folding 66-77 here, it shouldn't be a big leap to consider folding 99 as well.

Our fold equity is the same in either case, but if we get called we're just as likely to be flipping or worse. Haven't got PokerStove at work to run the exact numbers (I suspect 99 is a couple of % better because it interferes with some of the villain's possible outs to a straight), but against a calling range of, say, TT+ / AJ+ / KQ+... basically, we're never going to be ahead if we get called so what difference does it make if we're shoving 66 or 99?

 

[Bentheman87]

"But again, you're assuming the villain is familiar with concepts like pot odds. We've only just sat down at the table, for all we know they could be the biggest calling station ever.

Also, I'm gonna put it to you that if you can consider folding 66-77 here, it shouldn't be a big leap to consider folding 99 as well.

Our fold equity is the same in either case, but if we get called we're just as likely to be flipping or worse. Haven't got PokerStove at work to run the exact numbers (I suspect 99 is a couple of % better because it interferes with some of the villain's possible outs to a straight), but against a calling range of, say, TT+ / AJ+ / KQ+... basically, we're never going to be ahead if we get called so what difference does it make if we're shoving 66 or 99?"

If he's not familiar with pot odds then more power to us, we want him to call getting 1.7:1 if he has something like ace 8 or ace 7 or king 8 since those hands are a 2.5:1 underdog. True the leap from 77 to 99 isn't that great, but neither is the leap from 99 to 10 10 to JJ to QQ ect... And its possible he has exactly 88 or ace 8, in which case 99 is a huge leap from 77. What about just smooth calling with the intention of shoving at most flops? We could see a flop and shove unless it comes A K J or something. Still I think shoving>calling>folding. What do you think is the best play here OZ?

 

[OzExorcist]

It's the same as I said in the second post of this thread: I'd be OK with either shoving or folding in this hand.

Personally I'd lean a little towards shoving because that's the kind of player I am, but I certainly wouldn't fault anyone for folding.

 

[Emperor IX]

I agree with the shove, simply because a large raise like that often implicates a hand that doesn't really want action, like AQ/AJ/KQs/small-medium pairs

 

[soonerdel]

1/4th of your stack out of position.. mabbe look for a better place to gamble with...especailly since you have just been moved here and have no read on the villian..just my two cents.

 

[Emperor IX]

1/4th of your stack out of position.. mabbe look for a better place to gamble with...especailly since you have just been moved here and have no read on the villian..just my two cents.

There's no way we should ever be calling here, so position is irrelevant. It's either push or fold. I'm usually pushing here, fwiw