$5.5 NLHE STT: big stacked with straight and flush draw

[thunder1276]

full tilt poker $5 + $0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t80/t160 Blinds - 5 players - View hand 1195009
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: t1970 12.31 BBs
BB: t4515 28.22 BBs
UTG: t1405 8.78 BBs
CO: t2420 15.12 BBs
Hero (BTN): t3190 19.94 BBs

Pre Flop: (t240) Hero is BTN with 9 ♠ T ♠
1 fold, CO calls t160, Hero calls t160, SB calls t80, BB checks

Flop: (t640) J ♦ 5 ♠ 8 ♠ (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets t640, CO folds, Hero??.

sorry but I dont really have anything to tell yo about the villain. I know the limp pre is prolly marginal if not straight up bad. I was hoping to get a flop exactly like this (obviously). What do you think I should do in this spot? I could limp and see what he does on the turn, of course he is prolly going to bet out again and this time I will prolly will not have the odds. Or should I raise and how much. If I made a not all in raise it would have to be for at least half my stack so I might as well shove. He is prolly gonna fold draws and middle and bottom pairs. He did get a free look so he could have anything. On second thought I am not really as big stacked as I initially thought I was

 

[cjatud2012]

Ehhhhh.

Pre-flop aside, this situation on the flop is sort of marginal because you can really never expect a fold here if you push. Still, you have a monster so I don't think you can fold, and calling seems bad because you're committing so much of your stack. If you did call you'd probably do so with the intention of shoving the turn if checked to, but if villain shoved into us then we should probably call (god this sounds spewy but I really think it's fine).

So whichever of those plays has the most fold equity is the one I'd probably go with. The turn play has the added benefit that if he does decide to check/fold, the pot we're gonna win is much bigger. Even though we're not desperate here, it's not like we're guaranteed anything either, but if we doubled up here we'd be much closer to dominating, or even if we took down the pot on the flop (or the turn) we'd get to a virtual tie for first at the least.

 

[Jillychemung]

The worst hands for us are if the villain has AsXs with the AsJs crushing us at 77-23, even if he has JsJx he is only 62-37. Anything else we are over 50-50 even if we give him this range 55,88,JJ+,AJ+ we are ahead. I think our fold equity maximizes by shoving here.

 

[OzExorcist]

Weird line for the villain to take. All I can really give villain credit for here (without some read to the contrary) is top pair or maybe TT/99 - sets are almost certainly in their range but almost all villains slowplay a set in this spot and they certainly don't pot bet it because they're terrified of scaring off their customers and losing value. Two pair will often play the same way. Draws are the other possibility. Air and weaker made hands like A5 probably don't lead that big into this many people.

If I can cram all that thinking in before the timer runs out I probably shove this. We're almost certainly getting called by AJ, probably KJ/QJ and obviously sets and two pairs but I think we fold a lot of other stuff out (lesser jacks, underpairs, gutshots) and even when we get called we've got a ton of outs against everything other than a bigger flush draw.

Raises less than all in commit us anyway so we may as well just get the lot in, plus we want a guarantee that we'll see both the cards to come.

 

[WiZZiM]

Way too short to be able to call this preflop. Avoid messy situations like this by just folding pre. As played, this is about as good a flop as we can ever hope for, i'd probably jam it in and go for a huge stack, however i'd never be in this spot as i'd fold pre.

 

[Xavier]

Preflop -
This is a clear fold. Blinds are too large to play suited connectors.

On The Flop -
Shove ALL IN
Calling is too icky and hands the initiative to him on the turn, and your hand is too strong to fold.
You have fold equity and villains generally check the flop when they have a monster in this spot so its more likely he has just one pair than 2 pair or a set imo

 

[takethepain]

I put the Villain on top pair, or possibly a set. Clearly the spades spooked him and he wants to take the pot down now rather than risk being out drawn.

As for playing pre-flop. I don't agree folding preflop. With a hand like 9-T(s) you tend to lose small and win big. Plus you are on the button here.

 

[baudib1]

wow preflop is just terrible.

 

[OzExorcist]

As for playing pre-flop. I don't agree folding preflop. With a hand like 9-T(s) you tend to lose small and win big. Plus you are on the button here.

The problem is that we DON'T actually win big when we hit - stacks are all too short. At best we'll win a medium pot and the advantage that gives us on the odd occasion when we win it is far outweighed by the disadvantage losing all the small pots in the meantime puts is at.

It's a very different proposition to, say, a cash game with 100+bb effective stacks.