Jillychemung
Stacks & Stacks
Loyaler
Absent any reads on the big stack that flat called the AI or reads on the AI, I probably go AI myself here to try and isolate or triple up as the big stack likely won't fold for 4K more. There is a good chance that each of these players are using some of each others outs. Of course any reads here may change this to a fold. There is absolutely no way you could justify a flat call here.
jernest
Rock Star
Silver Level
you limped with JJ and now have to decide if it can hold up against an AI and a flat call from the tables top stack? - should have shoved or atleast raised first in. I think in this situation folding would be appropriate - youve only invested 1 BB. I think Big Stack is calling light - probably Ax or KQ or KJ - and your hand could be best - but I dont think so.
You could shove and try to take the big stack (cuz he cant fold to only a 4k-ish size raise at this point) down a bit but if you lose to first shover and beat the big stack - your stack will be 4k less than when you started the hand.
As played - fold the AI raises - and be the raiser/shover next time
You could shove and try to take the big stack (cuz he cant fold to only a 4k-ish size raise at this point) down a bit but if you lose to first shover and beat the big stack - your stack will be 4k less than when you started the hand.
As played - fold the AI raises - and be the raiser/shover next time
C
ComplexPlaya
Legend
Silver Level
Sorry, I'm going to have to disagree with everyone else. I think folding this is madness.
Absent reads, it is improbable Rafael has KK or AA, why would he all in with those to risk taking only the blinds? He might have QQ but more likely AK, AQ, AJ off/suited.
That's a coin flip, but it's your coin flip since you win 3 times if you beat him (I also think the big stack is calling loose) and you have more chances to begin with.
Besides, like the person above me said, you only have to beat big stack boy and you still have plenty chips, granted 4K less but it's small beans compared to tripling up if you make it...
I'm totally against that mode of playing tourneys, afraid to play the best of hands to save the chips and pray you get ITM...and even if you do, you usually have too few chips to make it count. And ITM is never that great, top 2-3 places are.
So for me, either play to win the whole thing or you're wasting time playing, for the time MTTs consume to go ITM close to every time and win a small amount, you're way more +EV multi-tabling SNG's, for instance. Not to mention cash games.
Absent reads, it is improbable Rafael has KK or AA, why would he all in with those to risk taking only the blinds? He might have QQ but more likely AK, AQ, AJ off/suited.
That's a coin flip, but it's your coin flip since you win 3 times if you beat him (I also think the big stack is calling loose) and you have more chances to begin with.
Besides, like the person above me said, you only have to beat big stack boy and you still have plenty chips, granted 4K less but it's small beans compared to tripling up if you make it...
I'm totally against that mode of playing tourneys, afraid to play the best of hands to save the chips and pray you get ITM...and even if you do, you usually have too few chips to make it count. And ITM is never that great, top 2-3 places are.
So for me, either play to win the whole thing or you're wasting time playing, for the time MTTs consume to go ITM close to every time and win a small amount, you're way more +EV multi-tabling SNG's, for instance. Not to mention cash games.
W
WiZZiM
Legend
Silver Level
can i ask why your open limping Jacks here????
without reads i have no idea what the first villain is capable of shoving with and waht the bb will call with.. so here is a very rough estimate of your equity in this pot
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.163% 23.53% 00.63% 2238817524 59835482.67 { 66+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+ }
Hand 1: 42.036% 40.85% 01.19% 3886001952 112886454.67 { 99+, AQs+ }
Hand 2: 33.801% 32.81% 00.99% 3121109202 94382144.67 { JhJs }
Hand 0 is first villain shoving, Hand 1 is the guy caling... please let me know if these ranges are correct... and now do you think calling here is such a good play. and how on earth can you assume the BB is calling loose??? am i missing something here... or are you simply overplaying jacks in this spot by shoving.. someone please tell me.. im not a great MTT player.. but surely this is a fold... one all in sure,c all but against two players.. your equity can never be good here...
without reads i have no idea what the first villain is capable of shoving with and waht the bb will call with.. so here is a very rough estimate of your equity in this pot
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.163% 23.53% 00.63% 2238817524 59835482.67 { 66+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+ }
Hand 1: 42.036% 40.85% 01.19% 3886001952 112886454.67 { 99+, AQs+ }
Hand 2: 33.801% 32.81% 00.99% 3121109202 94382144.67 { JhJs }
Hand 0 is first villain shoving, Hand 1 is the guy caling... please let me know if these ranges are correct... and now do you think calling here is such a good play. and how on earth can you assume the BB is calling loose??? am i missing something here... or are you simply overplaying jacks in this spot by shoving.. someone please tell me.. im not a great MTT player.. but surely this is a fold... one all in sure,c all but against two players.. your equity can never be good here...
atlantafalcons0
Legend
Silver Level
In regards to the first post - I would fold in that position because you have to know you are not 50/50 or better to win the hand.
Even if one guy's got ace king and the other guys got king queen that's a lot of overs to dodge.
I'm folding. (if I had some kind of history with these players I might shove but I know nothing about them)
What if they both have larger pocket pairs - you have 2 outs if nobody folded a jack. Why did you limp?
Have a great day!
Even if one guy's got ace king and the other guys got king queen that's a lot of overs to dodge.
I'm folding. (if I had some kind of history with these players I might shove but I know nothing about them)
What if they both have larger pocket pairs - you have 2 outs if nobody folded a jack. Why did you limp?
Have a great day!
C
ComplexPlaya
Legend
Silver Level
I'm sorry, but I can't agree with any of this and find it somewhat funny.
Wizzim, not knowing anything about our villains we can include stuff like 22+, A10 os, even KJ for Hand 1. That is very typical of MTT's at that level and even more so for high stacks.
I can't do all your fancy equity and odds calculations, but apply those to cash games.
A triple up here for Hero means a much better chance to go to the final table. If you play tourneys just to get ITM and while there, try to save yourself and run away from anything besides KK+ sure you'll win a few more pennies, but that's it.
You have to fight for top 3, otherwise they are -EV to me...but that's just my philosophy
Folding means he'll have less than 10 rounds to play with that stack.
W
WiZZiM
Legend
Silver Level
While i agree with your approach as to winning the MTT.. now again im not claiming to be a Mtt expert. quite the opposite.. but here its surely a bad play to shove... and we are shoving.. we cant call in this situation.
if we fold.. we still have a 20 bb stack approx.. which is workable.. i think we can wait for a better spot.. however.. i would have raised with JJ and then its another story.. perhaps villian 1 folds and villain 2 shoves.. then sure. we can call...
ok so i ran the numbers again
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.155% 19.64% 00.51% 27003728108 706804630.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T3s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K3o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }
Hand 1: 32.076% 31.35% 00.73% 43099634310 1001407817.00 { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 2: 47.769% 47.28% 00.49% 64999827964 677964879.00 { JhJs }
if this range is correct.. then we are technically flipping.. so really i guess it isnt too bad a spot.. IF the ranges are correct.. i guess with reads the decision becomes clearer.. but his calling range "should" be fairly tight... i dont think without reads that we assume. oh hes a big stack he must be calling light... i dont really think it works like that.. he can call lighter but doesnt mean that he is or will..
for me.. were left with 20 bb;s in our stack.. enough room to resteal i think its still a fold... fighting for top 3 is great... but calling off chips isnt something i like doing.. here with no fold equity.. i still dont see a call here.. the only thing i can think of to justify it. is the "gigabet dilemma".. were taking a slightly -ev play here to try and get more +ev opportunities in the future.. can someone please tell me if im correct in my thinking here also.. as i said.. i suck at MTT.. mainly due to the time factor.. but still im quite interested in hearing some more feedback in this post../
if we fold.. we still have a 20 bb stack approx.. which is workable.. i think we can wait for a better spot.. however.. i would have raised with JJ and then its another story.. perhaps villian 1 folds and villain 2 shoves.. then sure. we can call...
ok so i ran the numbers again
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.155% 19.64% 00.51% 27003728108 706804630.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T3s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K3o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }
Hand 1: 32.076% 31.35% 00.73% 43099634310 1001407817.00 { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 2: 47.769% 47.28% 00.49% 64999827964 677964879.00 { JhJs }
if this range is correct.. then we are technically flipping.. so really i guess it isnt too bad a spot.. IF the ranges are correct.. i guess with reads the decision becomes clearer.. but his calling range "should" be fairly tight... i dont think without reads that we assume. oh hes a big stack he must be calling light... i dont really think it works like that.. he can call lighter but doesnt mean that he is or will..
for me.. were left with 20 bb;s in our stack.. enough room to resteal i think its still a fold... fighting for top 3 is great... but calling off chips isnt something i like doing.. here with no fold equity.. i still dont see a call here.. the only thing i can think of to justify it. is the "gigabet dilemma".. were taking a slightly -ev play here to try and get more +ev opportunities in the future.. can someone please tell me if im correct in my thinking here also.. as i said.. i suck at MTT.. mainly due to the time factor.. but still im quite interested in hearing some more feedback in this post../
C
ComplexPlaya
Legend
Silver Level
Hey, I'm not an MTT expert either, I do get ITM sometimes though and I know that early after getting ITM alot of people play hectic, if their stack isn't too big they all in a really wide range.
And high stacks are alot of times people that played loose and sucked out a few times, sure it doesn't have to be that way but it's a good possibility to me. It's not like that in the high buy-ins like 100 or 200 euros/$ that I sometimes play, but in a $5.50 - especially rebuy - there are tons of fish.
So if we agree on it being the coin flip, I'd take that coin flip risk every time to try for the final table. But that's just me, I feel you get +EV from winning this half the time for greater possibly top prizes than folding for likely lesser prizes.
I don't have any math or stats behind me mind you, it's just the way I think things work in MTTs, never seen someone win one without having won at least 2-3 coin flips during it, and even suckouts many times.
You probably only have to win or place second only once to win more than 30 times placing ITM with say 20$ winnings, so if you think winning a few coin flips in one tourney is likely to happen more than 1 in 30 times, than it is +EV by definition. Not to mention that alot of money at once are much more useful than small amounts over a long period.
So please feel free to correct me if you think my judgement is wrong, I've yet to study the real math involved in poker...so it might just be thin air!
About future opportunites - I'm always afraid they'll never come or come too late, after 3 rounds of paying blinds and antes even if you double up then it won't mean much, so you'd need to double up twice for the same amount of chips you'd have here. Maybe that means better ev to shove here?
And high stacks are alot of times people that played loose and sucked out a few times, sure it doesn't have to be that way but it's a good possibility to me. It's not like that in the high buy-ins like 100 or 200 euros/$ that I sometimes play, but in a $5.50 - especially rebuy - there are tons of fish.
So if we agree on it being the coin flip, I'd take that coin flip risk every time to try for the final table. But that's just me, I feel you get +EV from winning this half the time for greater possibly top prizes than folding for likely lesser prizes.
I don't have any math or stats behind me mind you, it's just the way I think things work in MTTs, never seen someone win one without having won at least 2-3 coin flips during it, and even suckouts many times.
You probably only have to win or place second only once to win more than 30 times placing ITM with say 20$ winnings, so if you think winning a few coin flips in one tourney is likely to happen more than 1 in 30 times, than it is +EV by definition. Not to mention that alot of money at once are much more useful than small amounts over a long period.
So please feel free to correct me if you think my judgement is wrong, I've yet to study the real math involved in poker...so it might just be thin air!
About future opportunites - I'm always afraid they'll never come or come too late, after 3 rounds of paying blinds and antes even if you double up then it won't mean much, so you'd need to double up twice for the same amount of chips you'd have here. Maybe that means better ev to shove here?
C
ComplexPlaya
Legend
Silver Level
I guess. I have a lot of new info to absorb about the math and stats of poker, I'll see where to start.
OP, let us know the outcome of that hand will you?
FTP_TheNuts
Visionary
Silver Level
FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD
Just an abolsutely TERRIBLE spot for JJ, no way is Big stack folding for the extra 4k, then 3 handed AI your JJ has awful equity.
FOLDDDDDDDDDDDD
Edit: I scan through soe of the posts and see the bad equity has been proven.
Im gonna talk in more depth in my edit because i want to.
Firstly if im right, ypu limped JJ, He shoved over, Big stack flats, your left with decision.
Ok, By the big stack limping, he has given himself no fold equity at all for you to shove over, therefore making you shoving over the top a bad play, because even with JJ and him flatting your most likely racing against hi, whihc is never a situation you want to be in unless you feel like your running like god, but why risk your tourney life on a 50/50, also this begin 3 handed its most likely your gonna be crushed by atleast one opponent
The open shover i have to admit most likely has a mid PP 66-1010, and tbh big stacks flat call probably means he also has 66-1010, because with anything stronger he would almost definately, re pop and isolate. But even if you believe this, you still have to fold. Because the math is just against you, i hate the line "you can find a better spot", but never has it been more true than in this hand
Please say you folded, i have faith in your ability
Just an abolsutely TERRIBLE spot for JJ, no way is Big stack folding for the extra 4k, then 3 handed AI your JJ has awful equity.
FOLDDDDDDDDDDDD
Edit: I scan through soe of the posts and see the bad equity has been proven.
Im gonna talk in more depth in my edit because i want to.
Firstly if im right, ypu limped JJ, He shoved over, Big stack flats, your left with decision.
Ok, By the big stack limping, he has given himself no fold equity at all for you to shove over, therefore making you shoving over the top a bad play, because even with JJ and him flatting your most likely racing against hi, whihc is never a situation you want to be in unless you feel like your running like god, but why risk your tourney life on a 50/50, also this begin 3 handed its most likely your gonna be crushed by atleast one opponent
The open shover i have to admit most likely has a mid PP 66-1010, and tbh big stacks flat call probably means he also has 66-1010, because with anything stronger he would almost definately, re pop and isolate. But even if you believe this, you still have to fold. Because the math is just against you, i hate the line "you can find a better spot", but never has it been more true than in this hand
Please say you folded, i have faith in your ability
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