This is a discussion on $5.5 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: AQo - river spewy bluff? within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 38/20/3.3
PokerStars, $4.90 + $0.60 - Hold'em No Limit - 1,750/3,500 (450 ante) - 8 players
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UTG: 47,998 (14 bb)
I'm during analyzing one tournament and I see one strange hand.
PRE: I'm flatting and I think now that better it's to 3bet that hand. Villian has 0% fold to 3bet so far (only 77 hands). But I flat.
FLOP: it's not so good, but I decided to x/c and he could have here much more worst hands.
TURN: bleah, dont like it. But he checks behind.
RIVER: I have to be honest with you and I don't know what I've did... For me it's spewy, because I don't block here so much. I can push him to fold some 44 or 55, but he has a lot of two pairs, 7x, Jx..
Should I x/f river? I think it's the most reasonable decision.
I flat here in the BB too which I think is a mistake of mine. 3 betting here makes the hand play easier and we have a good chance of being ahead of the villain. Like I said, I personally have no problem with calling because that is what I do a lot in game but probably 3 betting pre is better.
As far as the hand played I believe you played it well except I would make one difference which Ill get to. The call on the flop is correct because the bet is so small and worse Axs could be doing this so there is no reason to fold here. I feel like with this sizing the villain rarely if ever has a mid over pair like 99-JJ. They could play AA this way but we have a blocker and even KK probably bets larger here for value. I am thinking villain is Ax or broadway Kx hand with this sizing.
Turn is an easy check for us and when villain checks behind I am still on the same range as on the flop but maybe a little less likely 2 clubs now since I think they might double barrel because they picked up equity. They could also check behind 2 clubs so its not a string read that they are without clubs but I would lean that way.
The river is a great scare card that I still believe that our range has more clubs than villains range does. They could have hit the jack here but we could bluff here and target AK. I think we could either way here but I lean towards turning AQ into a bluff here to prevent ourselves from getting bluffed. I do think AQ could be ahead here but AJ now has it beat. We would need villain to have KQ, K10, A10, A9 to be ahead and those hands might bluff if we check which puts us in a tough spot. I think we would rarely check here if we had a J in our hand so I like bluffing here but I would go smaller and make it look like a value bet instead of making it larger and making it look like a bluff. I would go right around half pot here which gives villain better odds yes but I feel like if they are folding to 3/4ths pot then they are folding to half pot and same with calling so I like half pot better here. I could see the case for checking as well but I feel good players (dont know villain) would realize that we would not be checking a flush the way this played out and would probably not be checking a jack either so its a green light for them to fire.
Typically I would 3-bet here, but if its was near the bubble or on the final table, I actually like flat caling, because you really dont want to go broke against the only player at the table, who have you covered. And of course if you hit, you have a hand, which is absolutely underrepped.
This is a standard defend, since you beat all his air other than AK exactly. You are not just calling to improve or make a play, you are also calling to try to get to showdown with the best nothing.
Check-check is absolutely perfect.
As the hand played you, you have showdown value, if he check back, so for me this is not a bluffing hand. We always want to pick those hands as bluffs, which have the least chance of winning at showdown. You can have some hands here like KQ, QT etc., that also defended to his small flop bet. These are the ones, you should pick as bluffs, especially if they have a club, a 9 or a 10, so they block some of the flushes and straights.
Thank you guys for your answer. I really appreciate that! What I see that I made a mistake preflop not 3betting that hand. It wasnt bubble or semi, FT. Actually what I've seen in my game, that I really rarely 3betting mid value hands bb vs mp or hj like AQo for example.
Hello new guy hear.
I am not all that familiar with some poker jargon what does 'near the bubble' mean if you don't mind me asking.
That you are close to entering the money. Like 71 players get paid, and its 85 players left. In that situation you obviously dont want to go broke with 63BB and let for instance the 13BB stack at your table cash, while you walk away with nothing.