$5,5 NL HE MTT: AA vs fish, Turn and River?

iwont20

iwont20

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No Limit
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888Poker, $5 + $0.50 - Hold'em No Limit - 30/60 (7 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 8,743 (146 bb)
UTG+1: 22,829 (380 bb)
MP: 10,801 (180 bb)
MP+1: 12,079 (201 bb)
CO: 10,000 (167 bb)
BU: 19,346 (322 bb)
SB: 10,051 (168 bb)
BB (Hero): 6,666 (111 bb)

Pre-Flop: (146) Hero is BB with A A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls 60, MP raises to 240, 4 players fold, Hero 3-bets to 780, UTG+1 calls 720, MP calls 540

Flop: (2,426) 4 Q T (3 players)
Hero bets 1,395, UTG+1 folds, MP calls 1,395

Turn: (5,216) J (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets 1,304, Hero calls 1,304

River:
(7,824) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets 7,315 (all-in)

Villain stats 35/0/0 for 23 hands.

Turn/river action?
 
D

DaMooca

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I don't understand why the call on the turn and fold after this 5 on the river that doesn't change practically on the board.
Okay, the turn is not very good for his hand, but after his turn check and bet, I would have shoved everything, and if he has a better one, congratulations to him.
For me there was no more fold there.
 
T

TeamBrett

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I feel like this is a crying call but pretty close. What hands does the MP raise over an open limp with, then call your 3-bet with? You strongly block AK which has you crushed on the turn, but you also strongly block AQ, AJ which you beat. Would MP turn something like AQ, AJ or KQ into a bluff on the river when you check with decent showdown value? MP can have all the Broadway card sets and stuff like QJ suited, J 10 suited.
I think when it boils down to it though the math makes it a call. With your stack behind of about 3,200 on the river. Calling 3,200 to win 11,000ish. You only need to be right about 30% of the time for a call to be profitable, and I think there is just enough hands that MP has ( KK, KQ, KJ suited, AQ, AJ, 10 9 suited ) to make it a call.
I think I'd call and feel sick when MP turns over J 10 suited.
 
okeedokalee

okeedokalee

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The Villain stats 35/0/0 I think takes JTs out of his calling range. TT and QQ would sit in that range however. A set appears most likely for this passive Villain who happily called a dry flop then bet the turn. Pocket JJ is also in Villain's range when he bets the turn, and would explain the flop call, when the queen appeared. The bet appeared to be small enough to encourage you to call.
Most times the turn is bet we are looking down the barrel.
 
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fundiver199

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Preflop
Out of position and with deep stacks you can go a little larger with your 3-bet. Not the biggest problem in the world, but a small detail to perfect in future hands. My standard sizing is 4X so 960 chips, and you can add a little for the limper, if you want to, so around 1.000 would be fine.

Flop
The first part of planning any hand is to look at the SPR (Stack to Pot Ratio). Here pot is 2.426, and you are the effective stack with 5.888 left behind, so the SPR is just a bit over 2,0. This is a very low SPR, where we should pretty much never fold an overpair or a top pair good kicker type hand, unless the board runs out absolutely terrible like a 1-liner to a flush or straigth. So right off the bat the plan here is to get stacks inside, and the only question is, how do we want to do it? And I think, the most reasonable options are bet, bet, shove or bet, shove. So depending on, if you want to make it a 2 or 3 street hand, is how you should size your C-bet. Your sizing is sort of in between, since you left a bit under a pot sized bet for the turn and river, so I would either go a bit smaller or a bit larger depending on the plan.

Turn
The J is not the greatest card, since it does bring in hands like JJ, AK, QJ and JT. In order to bet for value, we need to have more than 50% equity against the range, that continue, and/or gain significant equity, when he fold. So lets do some hand reading and give him a range for raising preflop over a limp, then overcalling our 3-bet and then calling our C-bet. You only have 23 hands on him, but over that sample he has never raised preflop before. So I think, we need to give a fairly narrow range, which mean, we dont need to worry about hands like K9, QJ, QT, JT or 98, because he would most likely have limped those behind.

On the other hand his actions are consistent with hands like TT-QQ and AK, which we now lose to, and there are a total of 17 combos of those. His actions are also consitent with KK, AQ and KQ, but maybe he sometimes 4-bet KK preflop, and maybe he sometimes limp behind with KQ. KK or KQ are not as consitent with his actions as the other hands, so I want to weigh those down and give him only half the combos. Which mean he also have 17 combos, we beat, and that will most likely call again, if we bet. And this is kind of a worst case scenario, since we can also not rule out a hand like KJ, which would certainly call the flop, since it was an OESD. And it will also call again now, because it improved to second pair, and it still has an OESD.

So for me I would still be in a stack-off mindset, and since he have no hands in his range, that have not made at least one pair, I really dont see any reason to check to him. The whole point of switching to a check-call mode is to induce bluffs, but he have no natural bluffs in his range. So I think, that by checking to him you are just giving him a chance to check behind some of the hands, you beat, and bet those hands, you lose to. And your hand is to strong to check-fold, since you cant be sure, we will check back those hands, you beat. So for me I would just continue with my stack-off plan, even though this was one of the worst possible cards in the deck for you.

River
I would not have given up the initiative on the turn, but the problem is still the same. If you check and face a shove, you are getting 4:1, so you only need to be good 1 out of 5 times. Which mean, you cant fold, because maybe he is shoving hands like KK or AQ thinking, its for value. But you give him the chance to check back those hands, and he is never bluffing, so the best play is still to jam yourself to get it in against a wider range. And as played its a check-call. I fully expect to lose here the majority of the time, as the hand played out, but I think, you are good more than 20% of the time, and then you cant fold. His river shove is not for 7.315 chips, because you are the effective stack, and you only have around 3.100 chips left.
 
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wavetune

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if you decide to discard AA, then why call on the turn, which card were you waiting for on the river with which you would go to the end? I'm not a poker expert, but even I wouldn't play like that
 
I Live Poker

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On the turn why did you check/call?
In that situation you have a flush nut blocker in case of villain's flush draw, and you are also blocking possible AK straights. I also think that on the turn you either fold if there's some extra information that makes you believe he's winning or going with all the chips. It doesn't make much sense for you to call the turn and have a very small patrimony in relation to the pot and turn a raibow card (which doesn't change anything) and you fold. I would check/shovy turn more often.
 
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iwont20

iwont20

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Well I checked because I thought for his uber tight range that he would raise-call pre the board OTT got me beaten more often than not. But I agree I should've bet T. This check was a mistake, I realized it once I made it :poop:, but what should I have done then, check-push? His push OTR made me fold, I decided to get away from this badly played hand with the remaining 50BBs stack which is a great stack size in 12 min blinds tourney, then to take my chances in the hand that went so wrong.

Thanks for all the inputs! ❤️
 
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fundiver199

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Well I checked because I thought for his uber tight range that he would raise-call pre the board OTT got me beaten more often than not. But I agree I should've bet T. This check was a mistake, I realized it once I made it :poop:, but what should I have done then, check-push? His push OTR made me fold, I decided to get away from this badly played hand with the remaining 50BBs stack which is a great stack size in 12 min blinds tourney, then to take my chances in the hand that went so wrong.

Thanks for all the inputs! ❤️
A few comments here:

1) As I said already, TT-QQ and AK are some of the hands, that makes the most sense given his preflop actions, so a QJT board is anything but ideal. But that being said we dont want to completely rule out other hands based on a 23 hand HUD sample. Yes this is the first time, he raised preflop, but he is playing 35% of hands, and sometimes fish actually mix it up. Sometimes they limp AK, and other times they raise a suited connector for no apparent reason. Fish are much more unpredictable than bad regs, and he can have some other hands than just those, that beat you.

2) A 50BB stack is great in the mid or late phase of an MTT. But this one had just begun, and a starting stack was still 167BB. So if you continue on with just 50BB, your chance of cashing is pretty slim, and its not an effective way to use your time. So for me I would just accept my fate, if my aces got cracked, and then I would instantly rebuy, which almost all MTTs on 888 Poker allow you to do.

3) I dont think, anything went really wrong in this hand other than your river fold. As I said already, I do think, you are beat most of the time, since this "small bet turn, small bet river" line very much looks like, he wants to rope you in. But you were getting 4:1, so you dont need to win 100% of the time to call. You only need to win 20% of the time, and if he can have 17 combos, you lose to, that mean, he only need to have 5 combos, which you beat. And I just dont think, we can rule out, that he might have a hand like KK or AQ and play it this way, because he think, he has the best hand. And we never want to put ourselfes in a situation, where we are so afraid of the "monster under the bed", that we fold the best hand, when our opponent think, he is betting for value.
 
tobychef

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Well I checked because I thought for his uber tight range that he would raise-call pre the board OTT got me beaten more often than not. But I agree I should've bet T. This check was a mistake, I realized it once I made it :poop:, but what should I have done then, check-push? His push OTR made me fold, I decided to get away from this badly played hand with the remaining 50BBs stack which is a great stack size in 12 min blinds tourney, then to take my chances in the hand that went so wrong.

Thanks for all the inputs! ❤️
How did it turn out for you in the end? The tournament I mean
 
iwont20

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A few comments here:

1) As I said already, TT-QQ and AK are some of the hands, that makes the most sense given his preflop actions, so a QJT board is anything but ideal. But that being said we dont want to completely rule out other hands based on a 23 hand HUD sample. Yes this is the first time, he raised preflop, but he is playing 35% of hands, and sometimes fish actually mix it up. Sometimes they limp AK, and other times they raise a suited connector for no apparent reason. Fish are much more unpredictable than bad regs, and he can have some other hands than just those, that beat you.

2) A 50BB stack is great in the mid or late phase of an MTT. But this one had just begun, and a starting stack was still 167BB. So if you continue on with just 50BB, your chance of cashing is pretty slim, and its not an effective way to use your time. So for me I would just accept my fate, if my aces got cracked, and then I would instantly rebuy, which almost all MTTs on 888 Poker allow you to do.

3) I dont think, anything went really wrong in this hand other than your river fold. As I said already, I do think, you are beat most of the time, since this "small bet turn, small bet river" line very much looks like, he wants to rope you in. But you were getting 4:1, so you dont need to win 100% of the time to call. You only need to win 20% of the time, and if he can have 17 combos, you lose to, that mean, he only need to have 5 combos, which you beat. And I just dont think, we can rule out, that he might have a hand like KK or AQ and play it this way, because he think, he has the best hand. And we never want to put ourselfes in a situation, where we are so afraid of the "monster under the bed", that we fold the best hand, when our opponent think, he is betting for value.
Well, I usually don't disregard my stack if it is a playable size (aside from freerolls maybe :) ), but still is a lot smaller than an effective stack, for example. I always look at my size and how I need to adjust my game now, considering my stack and average size of stack at the table. I think 50BBs is a pretty comfortable size to punt it away. But quite honestly, I didn't notice till way later on, that it's a rebuy tournament, I haven't been playing on 888 for a while.

Am I understanding you correctly, you think it's sort of a mandatory investment of 100BBs stack on this board with an overpair against this opponent that looks like fish? Like a top pair/ an overpair is not a nut hand, especially on connected boards, I was pretty sure, overpair is not worth to pay 100BBs in cash. Although, of course, a lot is depended on the opponent and I agree in this hand, but would you play differently vs other opponent (I mean not a nit of course)?

I'm not like attacking your points, I really like to read your posts and respect you a lot for sharing your knowledge and giving such detailed feedback, it's very valuable, and I'm thankful for your time and effort :)
How did it turn out for you in the end? The tournament I mean
Finished 3rd overall for 30 buy-ins :)
 
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fundiver199

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Am I understanding you correctly, you think it's sort of a mandatory investment of 100BBs stack on this board with an overpair against this opponent that looks like fish? Like a top pair/ an overpair is not a nut hand, especially on connected boards, I was pretty sure, overpair is not worth to pay 100BBs in cash. Although, of course, a lot is depended on the opponent, would you play differently vs other opponent (I mean not a nit of course)?
The starting stack in BB is not the only or even main thing, which determine stack-off ranges. The SPR is at least as important. As a rule of thumb an overpair is a default stack-off, when the SPR is less than 3, and here it was only a bit over 2. Its different, if CO min-raised, you 3-bet to 3X from BTN, and the players behind folded. Then you see a flop with a pot of less than 15BB and an SPR or more than 7, and then I would pretty much never stack off AA on this board. Or even if you had the full starting stack of 10.000 chips, then the SPR would be more than 3, and then I can get much more on board with check-folding the river to a jam.

But with this low SPR I think, the most profitable line is to bet turn and jam river yourself. A fish is never folding top pair or an overpair, and even if you are only good 40% of the time, this is a higher EV line than check-calling turn and then check-folding river after having invested half your stack already. As for check-calling it is pretty close, as others have also said, and the main reason for calling is, that you are getting such fantastic pot odds. If you are good 25% of the time and only need to be good 22% of the time to break even, then folding is a mistake although a somewhat small one. At the end of the day this was just a really bad turn card, that created a tough spot. And even though I dont agree with the line, you took, its certainly not the worst played hand, someone have shared.
 
iwont20

iwont20

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The starting stack in BB is not the only or even main thing, which determine stack-off ranges. The SPR is at least as important. As a rule of thumb an overpair is a default stack-off, when the SPR is less than 3, and here it was only a bit over 2. Its different, if CO min-raised, you 3-bet to 3X from BTN, and the players behind folded. Then you see a flop with a pot of less than 15BB and an SPR or more than 7, and then I would pretty much never stack off AA on this board. Or even if you had the full starting stack of 10.000 chips, then the SPR would be more than 3, and then I can get much more on board with check-folding the river to a jam.

But with this low SPR I think, the most profitable line is to bet turn and jam river yourself. A fish is never folding top pair or an overpair, and even if you are only good 40% of the time, this is a higher EV line than check-calling turn and then check-folding river after having invested half your stack already. As for check-calling it is pretty close, as others have also said, and the main reason for calling is, that you are getting such fantastic pot odds. If you are good 25% of the time and only need to be good 22% of the time to break even, then folding is a mistake although a somewhat small one. At the end of the day this was just a really bad turn card, that created a tough spot. And even though I dont agree with the line, you took, its certainly not the worst played hand, someone have shared.
Omg thank you so much, you analysis is outstanding! Thanks for all the explanations and effort! I got it now completely! Thank you 🙏💜
 
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fundiver199

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Omg thank you so much, you analysis is outstanding! Thanks for all the explanations and effort! I got it now completely! Thank you 🙏💜
You are very welcome. And I also want to say, that its great, you shared a hand like this, which is anything but easy and straight forward. A lot of hands, that are shared to poker forums, are just some kind of cooler or bad beat story, but this one is a genuinely difficult situation, where its anything but easy to figure out, what to do on the turn and river. And those are the hands, that both the person sharing them and everyone else can learn something from analysing and discussing :)
 
ammje

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Hello, your cbet was good, to leave an SPR of 0 on the turn, and push with any hand that came out in turn. I think your check was wrong, you let him see a cheap river.

you have to monitor the pot sizes, to see if you have to cbet strong to have 0 or 1 SPR on the turn and get all your chips in.
 
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