$.45 NLHE MTT: Fair equity facing turn shove from villain

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tzuriel

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Please take a look and tell me if you would have called. I had decent equity on the flop with a gut shot and turned an OESD but didn't think the price was right to call a shove.
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/8qZpu7B

Over 10 hands Villain limped twice and never raised. Not a huge sample but his tendencies were somewhat known. When he raised my lead on the flop he must have hit the flop with a marginal hand but I think my equity was enough to call his click back. I checked the turn with an OESD. Was that a mistake? My draw improved but I am not sure I had any more equity against his range which was was 8x 6x Jx 9T, pocket pairs, over cards. Pretty wide.

How would you have played it?

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem $0.41+$0.04 (150.00BB)
EP ($3615)
MP1 ($10404)
MP2 ($14975)
HJ ($2900)
CO ($14215)
BTN ($17783)
SB ($8157)
HERO ($12855)
UTG ($4697) [VPIP: 40.6% | PFR: 18.8% | AGG: 31.3% | Hands: 32]

Dealt to Hero: Q 9

UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP1 Folds, MP2 Calls $150, HJ Folds, CO Calls $150, BTN Calls $150, SB Calls $75, HERO Checks

Hero SPR on Flop: [9.03 effective]
Flop ($885): J 6 8
SB Checks, HERO Bets $398 (Rem. Stack: $12292), MP2 Raises To $796 (Rem. Stack: $14014), CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Calls $398 (Rem. Stack: $11894)

Turn ($2477): J 6 8 7
HERO Checks, MP2 Bets $14014 (allin), HERO Folds
 
F

fundiver199

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Preflop
No point in raising it up with Q9o into multible limpers, so totally onboard with taking a free flop.

Flop
I think, its very optimistic to lead into 4 other players with just a gutshot. Its highly unlikely, they all missed this flop, so you are basically always getting called, and usually by a better hand. I would be more onboard with leading with an OESD, and even then checking could certainly still be fine. When he min-raises you, I do agree with the call though, because you have 4 outs to the nuts and a lot of chips behind, so you have excellent implied odds. You are basically trying to nail that gutshot on the turn and then hopefully win a massive pot from him.

Turn
He raised you on the flop, and leading into him again with a draw would be close to suicidal. Clearly the only play here is to check and hope, he gives you a price to continue. Unfortunately he did not, so you had a very easy fold.
 
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tzuriel

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Flop
I think, its very optimistic to lead into 4 other players with just a gutshot. Its highly unlikely, they all missed this flop, so you are basically always getting called, and usually by a better hand.


Based on the timid players who limped I felt I had some fold equity for even a small lead. But yes. Somewhat optimistic :)
 
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kkonicke

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The only issue I see here is leading into 3 different ranges. Literally every range involved has a lot of Jx that will easily continue. I would be playing check/call for 2/3 pot or less bet from another player.
 
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tzuriel

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The only issue I see here is leading into 3 different ranges. Literally every range involved has a lot of Jx that will easily continue. I would be playing check/call for 2/3 pot or less bet from another player.

Probably the smarter line than the one I took
 
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