$$400.00 US NL HE MTT: Can you make this call?

[dannystanks]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

$400.00 US

Game Options

1. Deep Stacked

Currency

$

This is from Venetian DeepStack event in Las Vegas. Starting stack size is 50k. It’s 9 handed, it’s now in round 7, blinds are 600-1200-1200. The levels are 30 minutes. The winner of the previous day is at my table. He has approximately 120,00 and is the effective stack in this hand. He is in the HJ.
It folded to the HJ.
HJ opens to 2,800. CO folds. The Button is the chip leader with over 200,000. Button 3 bets to 8,600. SB and BB folds. HJ calls the 8,600.
Pot is now 20,200.
Flop 8-8-7, two spades.
HJ checks. Button bets 15,000. HJ calls 15,000.
Pot is now 50,200. Turn is 10 of hearts.
Board is 8-8-7-T two spades, one diamond, one heart.
HJ now leads out and bets 25,000. Button calls 25,000.
Pot is now 100,200.
River is the 10 of clubs. Board is 8-8-7-T-T with no flush.
HJ checks. Button bets 30,000. HJ goes all in for approximately 70,000.
So the pot is 170,200 and button is faced with a call or fold. This is by far the pot of the day so far.

Question is can you make this call. The Button has A-8 of diamonds.
Now this hand took about 5 minutes with all the tanking in between streets and on the river. This is what makes live poker so damn fun!

So Button does make the call. HJ show 6-5 of spades for busted flush and gut shot. Button shows the A-8 of diamonds and takes the pot.

 

[300HPGOD]

The overall question of can you make this call is yes you can and should based on the price and how the hand was played. Its 40k more to win a pot of 200,200 counting the initial 30k bet on the river and the jam of 70k over. Thats too much in the middle for the calling amount to fold a boat in my opinion. Also factor in the button (who has to decide to call or not) is not the effective stack so they could lose this hand and still have over 60 BBs. To be honest, I think this is a must call given the pot odds.

In my opinion both players make mistakes here in the hand. I dont like buttons bet sizing on the flop as even though they smashed it and its a concealed smash, 15k into 20k means HJ has to have something to call and HJ opening on the button will be wide so this sizing will get a lot of folds. HJ flops the straight flush draw and faces a huge bet. Debatable on how that should be played being 100 BBs deep but raising there is obviously a path that could be taken and if it gets all in then are we never that bad unless we are up against a rare boat or quads which I would not think would bet this sizing on the flop (nor would I be thinking any 8x would and would be wrong).

I dont like HJs lead on turn but I was going to lead there it would be for less to give myself a better price. I think buttons call is fine since we want in whatever HJ is leading with here to stay in since I would be thinking HJs monsters here check (just a guess).

Buttons sizing on river is good imo since there is just not much villain will call with that button beats but I do think you have to try to get a little something out of whatever led on the turn so you go small here (30% pot). HJs jam here is really bad imo since there should be no fold equity to it and buttons tourney life is not on the line. Maybe if it was flipped and button was the effective stack this could have some possibility of working but not when button can call and be wrong and still have 60 BBs.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Pretty standard by both players, although it would not be crazy to fold 65s to a 3-bet out of position. Its not exactly a monster, and being out of position without initiative is not the best situation for a small suited connector. No idea what a solver does here, but could be a partial call for board coverage when this deep.

Flop
What an action flop. 65s flopped a 15 out combo draw, which is probably slightly ahead of an overpair, so he could consider checkraising. It is a paired board though, and there is also the risk of getting overflushed, so all in all a bit of pot control seems fine. A8s has a clear bet for value of course.

Turn
Now 65s leads out (donk bet), which I just dont understand the logic in doing. Th did not improve his hand, and with only one more card to come he lost a lot of equity, and it would be a disaster to get raised. A8s should just jam now in my opinion. Pot is 100k with only 70k left behind, and if A8 is beat here in a 3-bet pot, then so be it. If its against J9, which turned a straight, at least there is 10 outs to boat up.

River
This is pretty weirdly played by both. If A8 wants to bet here, it should be a jam, since there are so few chips left. But the problem is, at this point what worse hands are calling a jam, now that TX got there? So for me A8 should check back and take a showdown. 65s is correct to check, but should clearly fold when facing a small bet. This is a really bad time to bluff with so little left behind. If he wanted to get aggressive, then the flop was the time to do it, not the river. I guess, he is saying, he has a T, but his story does not add up, and as played A8 has an easy call. But A8 should not have made a small bet to begin with. Maybe this is a live poker thing, since it can be difficult to keep track of the pot size.

 

[Poker Orifice]

But A8 should not have made a small bet to begin with. Maybe this is a live poker thing, since it can be difficult to keep track of the pot size.

Typically 'yes' but why shouldn't he in this spot? If he's able to induce some spazzy bet (that really will not even have fold equity here)... then why not?

 

[Poker Orifice]

I bet you some of the players from the day before were shaking their heads, remembering back to spots where they folded vs. 'HJ' tourney winner guy.... and were thinking "OMFG! Now I am certain I made a freak'n Terrible fold vs. that guy! UGH!!!"

 

[fundiver199]

If he's able to induce some spazzy bet (that really will not even have fold equity here)... then why not?

Sure. If he had a read, that this was likely to happen, then why not. But typically he should go really small like 15% pot to induce that. As played he would be counting to the opponent to do something really dumb, that he should never do. And without the most massive read I would tend to give my opponents just a little more credit for playing in a reasonable way.

Also if HJ wanted to bluff the river, he should just jam and continue the story, he began telling on the turn. Not saying this would be a great bluff, but at least one could argue, that he is right at the bottom of his range, and if he can get even a busted draw to fold, thats a big win. Whereas when he play it as a check-jam, BTN might check back some busted draws and then win at showdown with A high.

 

[makisaa]

Button got his two 8 and starts with a strong hand, and he is betting continuously. I think he could make that risky call, because he started the effort. If the HJ had the T he would play it more aggressively from the beginning.

 

[ADRI7HO]

WOW, difficult hand, I couldn't even speak to me, but thank you and also for the analyses.

 

[eetenor]

Preflop
Pretty standard by both players, although it would not be crazy to fold 65s to a 3-bet out of position. Its not exactly a monster, and being out of position without initiative is not the best situation for a small suited connector. No idea what a solver does here, but could be a partial call for board coverage when this deep.

Flop
What an action flop. 65s flopped a 15 out combo draw, which is probably slightly ahead of an overpair, so he could consider checkraising. It is a paired board though, and there is also the risk of getting overflushed, so all in all a bit of pot control seems fine. A8s has a clear bet for value of course.

Turn
Now 65s leads out (donk bet), which I just dont understand the logic in doing. Th did not improve his hand, and with only one more card to come he lost a lot of equity, and it would be a disaster to get raised. A8s should just jam now in my opinion. Pot is 100k with only 70k left behind, and if A8 is beat here in a 3-bet pot, then so be it. If its against J9, which turned a straight, at least there is 10 outs to boat up.

River
This is pretty weirdly played by both. If A8 wants to bet here, it should be a jam, since there are so few chips left. But the problem is, at this point what worse hands are calling a jam, now that TX got there? So for me A8 should check back and take a showdown. 65s is correct to check, but should clearly fold when facing a small bet. This is a really bad time to bluff with so little left behind. If he wanted to get aggressive, then the flop was the time to do it, not the river. I guess, he is saying, he has a T, but his story does not add up, and as played A8 has an easy call. But A8 should not have made a small bet to begin with. Maybe this is a live poker thing, since it can be difficult to keep track of the pot size.

A solver does call 65s most often 93% at a 4x raise size This is at just over 3x as the SPR is even better now solver would still call. A8s suited is a mix 3 bet as well so if V are raising it pure than solver would call with 65s---

Should we call though?

A great feature in GTO Wizard is strategy+EV when we click on that- upper top of right of range panel strategy has a small menu arrow.
65S has .01 EV In order for us to realize that tiny amount of EV we have to play perfect post flop or our V have to be very passive. This is very difficult to do. As in this hand our V gave away 100bb trying to realize .01 long term.

 

[dannystanks]

Great info! I was wondering how a solver would play this from both players point of view.