$4.40 NLHE MTT: Can't Fold, Can I?

[cardriverx]

Full Tilt - $4+0.40 $4 + $0.40 Rush On Demand (#216475538) - Blinds: 800/1,600 +200 Ante, No Limit Hold'em (7 players)
Full Tilt Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: t66,793
BB: t72,209
UTG: t42,808
MP Hero: t77,239
MP+1: t24,087
CO: t35,252
BTN: t14,079

Pre-flop: (t2,400) Hero is MP and dealt
UTG folds, Hero raises t4,000, 3 folds, SB calls t3,200, BB folds

Flop: (t9,600) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t9,600) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t3,500, SB calls t3,500

River: (t16,600) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t5,000, SB raises t59,293 (All-in)

 

[MediaBLITZ]

OMG - I know you're thinking Ah, but I have to go all the way with that one. SB could easily also have a pocket pair and hit a full house thinking he's the nuts. I go all the way and don't look back. It's the right call.

 

[cardriverx]

Yeah I was thinking that I might have just hit my 1-outer on the river there. BTW, SB have a VPIP of 46 (41 hands, small sample size)

 

[MediaBLITZ]

I'm waiting for a math guy to jump in here and tell us what the odds are a straight flush will beat out quads on this, but I'm thinking it's not close and close to a no brainer. Am I wrong?

 

[cjatud2012]

Checking that flop is truly criminal.

Betting that small on the turn is awful, too

The river is difficult because of how you played on earlier streets. DUCY?

 

[cardriverx]

yeah realized that check was terrible afterwards.

 

[Lofwyr]

Eh...as played you probably have to ship it. A loose/fishy donk will overvalue any number of hands on that river.

But yeah...bet the flop.

 

[pol_92121]

you had to bet after the flop also i think you can't fold poker!! Sometimes i saw people in live tourney with one player left for money who fold KK,AA and so that only for going in the money..i think that peoples did'nt win never a tourney...alsonegreano say that"To be a bubble man you must have balls!!!!" i think it's right...

 

[baudib1]

fold

 

[BEERM4N]

sick spot. I prob call but i dunno... Just sick

never ever check that flop though.

 

[ben_rhyno]

Crying call

 

[Rldetheflop]

yea kinda gross with quads but I think I might check back the river. I mean with that board really what is calling us that we beat.

 

[tpb221]

Checking that flop is truly criminal.

Betting that small on the turn is awful, too

The river is difficult because of how you played on earlier streets. DUCY?

This plus a thousand. You are in this horrible spot cause the way you played it.

At this point I'm making a monkey tilt move-closing my eyes and just start clicking the mouse and hit either the fold or call button.


edit: I just saw this what you did on the river. You should not have bet the river. In this spot you have to just check. The chance your beat here is pretty good. He may do this with a fullboat but I think most players will have the staight flush here. The Ah or 6H. Fold.

 

[KoRnholio]

You should not have bet the river. In this spot you have to just check. The chance your beat here is pretty good.

Are you serious? There's plenty of hands he could have that call a river bet. Unless you have x-ray glasses, you must bet here.

Also, I'm never folding. Worse case scenario where he only ever has the largest boats (never 22 for the underfull) and 8 combos of the straight flush, we're still 42.9%. 54k to call to win 75.6k = we need 41.7% or better equity to be profitable.

Board: 5h 4h 3h 2h 3c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.857% 42.86% 00.00% 6 0.00 { 3d3s }
Hand 1: 57.143% 57.14% 00.00% 8 0.00 { 6d6h, 55-44, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h }

 

[PattyR]

can we get results to this please?

 

[Rldetheflop]

Are you serious? There's plenty of hands he could have that call a river bet. Unless you have x-ray glasses, you must bet here.

Also, I'm never folding. Worse case scenario where he only ever has the largest boats (never 22 for the underfull) and 8 combos of the straight flush, we're still 42.9%. 54k to call to win 75.6k = we need 41.7% or better equity to be profitable.

Board: 5h 4h 3h 2h 3c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.857% 42.86% 00.00% 6 0.00 { 3d3s }
Hand 1: 57.143% 57.14% 00.00% 8 0.00 { 6d6h, 55-44, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h }

I think we have to add a few hands into villains range here like Ah with any king or queen. how about 6h6s 6h6c also...

Board: 5h 4h 3h 2h 3c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.280% 4365658 0.00 { 3d3s }
Hand 1: 72.720% 11637945 0.00 {6c6h, 6d6h, 6h6s, 55-44, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, AhKd, AhKc, AhKs, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs}


as you see adding just these few hands brings our equity down considerably making this a fold it looks like.(not that Im sure i could fold quads) but that is why checking back the river is the right play here.

 

[KoRnholio]

as you see adding just these few hands brings our equity down considerably making this a fold it looks like.(not that Im sure i could fold quads) but that is why checking back the river is the right play here.

If you think that many 6h and Ah's are in his range, sure go ahead and fold to the river all in. But up until our river bet we have no reason not to value bet our quads here. Checking back the river is way more horrible than checking behind on that flop.

 

[Rldetheflop]

If you think that many 6h and Ah's are in his range, sure go ahead and fold to the river all in. But up until our river bet we have no reason not to value bet our quads here. Checking back the river is way more horrible than checking behind on that flop.

I used your range and just added a few hands that went along with it (i.e. why does your range only include AhKh clearly all the AhKx's should be included) The thing is those may not be the only hands in his range but they pretty much are all you will get called with except maybe 22. In fact there are dozens of other hands that have us beat that are left out of villains range but ALL the hands that will call us that that we beat are already in the range and its still less than 30% equity.

checking this flop is far worse than checking back the river.

and I never said i was folding the all in(although the math looks like I should) on the river I said check back so we arent this position.

 

[baudib1]

this is essentially like calling with the third-nut flush (Qh) on a four-heart (not SF) board. yeah, you are only beat by two hands but it's sooooo likely that villain has the nuts in this situation that it's a fold.

 

[cardriverx]

Full Tilt - $4+0.40 $4 + $0.40 Rush On Demand (#216475538) - Blinds: 800/1,600 +200 Ante, No Limit Hold'em (7 players)
Full Tilt Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: t66,793
BB: t72,209
UTG: t42,808
MP Hero: t77,239
MP+1: t24,087
CO: t35,252
BTN: t14,079

Pre-flop: (t2,400) Hero is MP and dealt
UTG folds, Hero raises t4,000, 3 folds, SB calls t3,200, BB folds

Flop: (t9,600) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t9,600) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t3,500, SB calls t3,500

River: (t16,600) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t5,000, SB raises t59,293 (All-in), Hero calls t54,293

Hero shows

SB shows

I know I played this badly, but it didn't really matter what I did, lol. The river 3 make me double him up. Surprised villain checked the river with such a monster hand. I would've been scared of a check back.

Also surprised he called with that pre-flop. Guess everyone loves those suited connectors

 

[ben_rhyno]

lol wow, I bet he was loving that turn and river, letting you catch up while he had the stone unbeatable nuts

 

[tpb221]

ugh. I wish the results were't posted. I was coming here to post on the same line as ridetheflop. Your pokerstove cal is wrong in a number of ways. ridetheflop showed some error.

Good luck all.

 

[naruto_miu]

You are truly one unlucky Human Being, I'm so So SOOOOOOOOOOOO sry for your Luck, That brought me to tears

 

[HomeBrewer]

absolutely sick.

 

[baudib1]

What I'd like to know is who is check-shoving a full house on this river vs. someone who bets this board twice?