$4.40 NLHE MTT: 4/180 man - Floped middle pair + 2nd nut FD vs action

[MrEpic94]

No reads.

PokerStars - $4+$0.40|15/30 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
BTN: 3,210.00
SB: 870.00
Hero (BB): 1,360.00
UTG: 1,555.00
UTG+1: 1,575.00
MP: 1,240.00
MP+1: 1,615.00
LP: 1,420.00
CO: 1,955.00
SB posts SB 15.00, Hero posts BB 30.00
Pre Flop: (45.00) Hero has K:club: T:spade:
fold, UTG+1 raises to 60.00, MP calls 60.00, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 60.00, fold, Hero calls 30.00
Flop: (255.00, 4 players) T:club: Q:club: 5:club:
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets 360.00, fold, fold, fold
UTG+1 wins 255.00

folding the flop seems a bit weak tight but we only have 2nd nut flush draw?

Whats our line?

 

[WiZZiM]

Break you're mouse hitting the raise button!

 

[MrEpic94]

are you sure I wouldnt be better breaking a finger, ive got 10 of those but only one mouse.

 

[ManicLombax]

I think I shove this unless I'm feeling particularly wimpy...

Say if opp. has AQ or even AA without the Ac you've got about 50% equity. If he does have the Ac you're toast of course, but I think I still have to shove.

 

[MrEpic94]

what do we think villians range is here?

 

[ManicLombax]

My best guess is with the over-bet he has a made hand and is trying to protect against the flush draw (i.e. he probably doesn't have the Ac).

AA, KK, AQ, KQ. Something like that? (KQ a stretch with the UTG+1 raise maybe, but he could be fishy)

Edit: I'm sleeping here. He could of course be leading out with QQ, TT, and probably JJ.

 

[MrEpic94]

yeah this is such a difficult spot without reads.

if we give him a fairly tight UTG + 1 opening range as 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo then pokerstove has at a 60/40 favourite but obviosly he doesnt call with that entire range. And we can assume if he is looser we are an even bigger favourite on the hand.

for us to behind in the hand his calling range pretty much has to be TT+,AKs and even then we are only a 45/55 dog.

folding pretty much the worst play?

or shove>fold>call ?

 

[ManicLombax]

Yeah I don't like calling, I'd vote that for worst option. If the turn is a brick, we don't have the odds to stick around anymore. If the turn is a club, we probably don't get any more value.

 

[Lofwyr]

Check-shove this all day long unless UTG+1 is the biggest nit in the world. It's an ideal spot for such a move, you get to squeeze anyone that decides to call villain's c-bet too (if'n you feel like doing so).

Calling is bad, you probably won't have the odds to call a turn bet. Folding is only slightly better than calling.