$4.40 NLHE: BTN bet size ??

[Jillychemung]

$4.40 NL HE: BTN bet size ??

$4.40 Buy-in (700/1,400 blinds, 175 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tourney, 9 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker

BB: 23,508 (16.8 bb)
UTG: 34,305 (24.5 bb)
UTG+1: 74,400 (53.1 bb)
MP1: 49,580 (35.4 bb)
MP2: 24,383 (17.4 bb)
MP3: 38,104 (27.2 bb)
CO: 10,951 (7.8 bb)
Hero (BTN): 26,573 (19 bb)
SB: 58,581 (41.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with J

K

6 folds, Hero ??

SB is 23/19/2 over 31 hands
BB is 13/10/2 over 31 hands
Neither one has made any noteworthy plays.
Well into the money (ITM at 180) at this point but still a long way to go to FT (45/85 or so).
My stats are 9/7/4 over 200 hands and my standard raise into an unopened pot has been 3.5xBB

What size raise here to maximize my fold equity???

 

[roundcat]

I think you make your standard raise here so as not to make it obvious that you'd like to see the blinds fold.

However, at this point in the tournament a smaller standard raise size is likely to be just as effective without risking as many chips, especially with an awkward stack size like 19BB. I like about 2.5xBB opens late in an MTT and from what I've observed that's become fairly standard.

 

[bubonicplay]

Shoving can't be bad, it's not like you're ever raise/folding right? And shoving doesn't let him rebluff you with hands that you really want to see fold like lower pairs or even something better like A2-A7 or so.

 

[BEERM4N]

stand 2.5x-3x BB. Definatly dont shove no need with 19bb.

 

[WiZZiM]

shoving maximises folding equity and is definately plus ev.... considering antes.. were at effectively 1200/2400 so were effectively at around 11 bb stack... this is a shove for me... i hate raising having either the sb or bb call and then were in no mans land as to cbet half our stack or chcek fold... and if he reshoves we have to fold..which sucks.. i shove for sure..

 

[BEERM4N]

shoving maximises folding equity and is definately plus ev.... considering antes.. were at effectively 1200/2400 so were effectively at around 11 bb stack... this is a shove for me... i hate raising having either the sb or bb call and then were in no mans land as to cbet half our stack or chcek fold... and if he reshoves we have to fold..which sucks.. i shove for sure..

woops didnt see the ante. Shove.

 

[Jillychemung]

Results - I guess I priced the BB into making a call here preflop

Hero raises to 4,900, SB folds, BB calls 3,500

Flop: (12,075) K

5

7

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 21,498 and is all-in, BB calls 18,433 and is all-in

Turn: (48,941) Q

(2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: (48,941) 4

(2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results: 48,941 pot
Final Board: K

5

7

Q

4

BB showed 9

7

(a flush, King high) and won 48,941 (25,433 net)
Hero showed J

K

(a pair of Kings) and lost (-23,508 net)

 

[bubonicplay]

lol his call is terrible. That said I think with all the dead money and the fact that your hand isn't that far ahead of him when you have KJ you want to shove. But if you have like AK or AA or something here definitely make it 3.5x if he's gonna call with 97s and only bit over pot on flop left lol. He's calling with an implied odds hand with no implied odds.

 

[ComplexPlaya]

I find this very interesting. At what point in the tourney, or at your point with your stack size relative to the blinds should you start shoving instead of raising to get good fold equity?

 

[WiZZiM]

I find this very interesting. At what point in the tourney, or at your point with your stack size relative to the blinds should you start shoving instead of raising to get good fold equity?

late stage obv... when you have under 15bb's is generally correct to open shove most hands to maximise fold equity... as the last thing you want to do is raise/fold, or raise/cbet and fold to a shove... basically if you shove all in.. you cannot be outplayed anymore.. you put the decision back to the player facing the all in bet...

i also believe that its important to know how deep we are effectively... here it looks like were sitting in good shape with a nice restealing stack around 20bb's but when you include the ante were effectively a lot less.. more like 11b's deep..

basically when there is an ante present we can shove looser than normal.. as there is more dead money in the pot.. but if web are shoving looser you will probably want to do some reasearch into "ICM" and stuff like the "bunching effect" you also want to pay attention into who your shoving into.. some may call with a such a wide range that it makes your shove in correct.. but on the most part they will never call wide enough to make your play unprofitable.

im using concepts from SNG play here.. but i think you can use it for late stage MTT as well...

 

[WiZZiM]

lol his call is terrible. That said I think with all the dead money and the fact that your hand isn't that far ahead of him when you have KJ you want to shove. But if you have like AK or AA or something here definitely make it 3.5x if he's gonna call with 97s and only bit over pot on flop left lol. He's calling with an implied odds hand with no implied odds.

i agree with making it a raise with AA as were not looking for fold equity on that particular hand... anything else worth playing im coming in for a shove... AK plays about as good as KJ as we want to hit a pair to be comfortable postflop... DEf shove AK as we get called by worse.. most likely they will call with any broadway, pair. or Ace.. if they are.. AK crushes that range.. so we want all the money in now.. we dont want to get to a flop and then have to decide what to do if we dont hit our pair...

 

[ComplexPlaya]

i agree with making it a raise with AA as were not looking for fold equity on that particular hand... anything else worth playing im coming in for a shove... AK plays about as good as KJ as we want to hit a pair to be comfortable postflop... DEf shove AK as we get called by worse.. most likely they will call with any broadway, pair. or Ace.. if they are.. AK crushes that range.. so we want all the money in now.. we dont want to get to a flop and then have to decide what to do if we dont hit our pair...

Would you apply that for early positions too, with say AK/AQ etc.? You always run the risk of hitting a 99 that's happy to play (they always are in MTT's)

I guess if you want to raise you should shove from OOP, but you are likely to come up against hands that are favorite...maybe it is better to flat call or minraise AK-AQ from early position, what do you think?

 

[WiZZiM]

well our range tightens naturally from early position.. and loosens as we near the button and loosens drastically on the SB vs BB

with an effective stack of 11bb's im shoving AK from any position... most certainly +ev as we do get called by worse.. and if we happen to be called.. its usually flipiing with a smaller pair.. very rare to get called and be dominated.. AA or KK... too rare really to even give a second thought about it..

so yeah.. im shoving very tight range on a 9 handed table from early and middle with 11bb's.. loosening up my range on the button and sb drastically.. depending on chip stacks to what range of hands im willing to shove... also reads of opponants.. loose or tight etc..

of course on a 9 handed table if were on the button and were thinking about shoving we have to take into account the "bunching effect".. if 7 players have folded.. we have to assume they didnt fold things like AA or KK.. or high broadway cards.. so our opponants are more likely to have hands in that range... therefore our range should tighten..


but yeah if they want to call with 99 when our true UTg range is JJ+ AK then sure.. go for it.. if they call were making money in the long run.. so whatever.. lets flip them over..


Getting back to the OP... pushing here depends a lot on the blinds and what you think there likely calling ranges are... if they are loose.. as in calling say 20% of hands which is roughly any ace.. then shoving the KJ is probably not a great play.. however if they are tight.. then it becomes a case of shoving a wider range...
if were in the Sb here our range widens again.. due to the fact of course that there is only one player left to act.. not two..