$4.4 NLHE MTT: 180 man - top pair weak kicker vs donk bet on flush board

[MrEpic94]

villian hasnt really been running the table/stealing excessively.


poker stars $4.00+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300/t600 Blinds + t50 - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos
Hero (UTG): t11286 M = 9.81
CO: t10472 M = 9.11
BTN: t19026 M = 16.54
SB: t35787 M = 31.12
BB: t31888 M = 27.73
Pre Flop: (t1150) Hero is UTG with J:heart: T:heart:
Hero raises to t1500, 2 folds, SB calls t1200, 1 fold
Flop: (t3850) 9:club: J:club: 2:club: (2 players)
SB bets t34237 all in, Hero ??

 

[WiZZiM]

With 13-14 BB's this is a questionable open.

 

[c9h13no3]

If you open this preflop with the short stack you have, you've pretty much gotta snap call flops you hit. You hit this flop.

However, I suck at donkaments, and I have no clue if this is a raise or fold preflop. But I agree with Wizzim that it looks iffy.

 

[WiZZiM]

I think if you had a really good read that the table was tight, then it may be an open. However i think that's seldom the case, we're usually very lucky to get a steal through here, any 3bet we have to fold, and getting flat called isn't great either. What do we do when we whiff the flop? Do we fire a c-bet, committing a huge % of our stack? Do we check and give up?


The main problem i have with opening this is exactly what c9 is saying, we hit any piece of it we are stacking off, so theres definitely some reverse implied odds in play here.

 

[Lofwyr]

Well...this looks to be the final table bubble. Given stack sizes, it's highly likely there is a REALLY short stack on the other table and people are more inclined to fold. I think in those circumstances it's okay to open this hand, but as c9 said when you hit you have to go with it. Now, if either of the big stacks has appeared eager to try and dominate the bubble then you just lay this down pre.

On the flop though...you probably have the best hand and should take your 50%+ equity.

 

[ManicLombax]

Meh, 5 handed I probably open JTs here unless the table was really aggressive. Anybody like an open shove instead of a std raise? I think you have to call on the flop.

 

[MrEpic94]

i definatly dont think open shove is a very good play.

Maybe my stack size is to small to be opening this hand OOP as said by others.

 

[ManicLombax]

Not saying I like it necessarily, but why don't you like the open shove? Too obvious that you don't want a call? Seems like standard raising with your stack is asking for someone to 3-bet light on you and you have to fold. I guess that leaves open folding, but that seems nitty 5 handed with a hand that's near the top 10%.

 

[IamRude]

Not saying I like it necessarily, but why don't you like the open shove? Too obvious that you don't want a call? Seems like standard raising with your stack is asking for someone to 3-bet light on you and you have to fold. I guess that leaves open folding, but that seems nitty 5 handed with a hand that's near the top 10%.

I actually thought about shoving in this spot originally too. The problem I have with it is that our stack size is big enough to make this look like a weird shove, and small enough that we're getting pretty okay odds to shove here.

So if any of the bigger stacks recognizes that, I think they'd be calling really light here.
Alot of mass multitabling regulars actually shove like this this deep in the tournament in these 4.40, and get called pretty light by other regulars very often.
It not like it get terrible equity if you get called either.

 

[Jillychemung]

IMHO opening here just allows the big stacks to float us here. If the stacks were reversed it'd be a diff story or if you were on the BTN. You've got a good setup when the BTN comes around to you so I'd prefer to fold this and wait for my turn in LP.

 

[MrEpic94]

SNG wizz has this as a fold preflop, but not sure if my ranges are right.

 

[WiZZiM]

SNG wizz has this as a fold preflop, but not sure if my ranges are right.

SNG Wiz is useless in these situations.

I think we're too deep to open shove, and too shallow to open raise, which is why folding is the best i think.

 

[c9h13no3]

Shoving pre is fine, might be preferable. I know its the standard play with an M of 10.

 

[MrEpic94]

SNG Wiz is useless in these situations.

I think we're too deep to open shove, and too shallow to open raise, which is why folding is the best i think.

why is it useless? because its not FT?

 

[Slow Roll Poker]

I would probably call the all-in on the flop because you have top pair and a decent kicker.

I would just be worrying about being outkicked and another club and that's it. I wouldn't think he flopped the flush.

I'm thinking he had K J maybe so maybe a fold would be good here.

What was your final decision?

 

[MrEpic94]

I would probably call the all-in on the flop because you have top pair and a decent kicker.

I would just be worrying about being outkicked and another club and that's it. I wouldn't think he flopped the flush.

I'm thinking he had K J maybe so maybe a fold would be good here.

What was your final decision?

i decided to build a great big fence for you to sit on

 

[WiZZiM]

why is it useless? because its not FT?

We're too deep, it's going to hate shoving anything over 12bb's. Also, since we're shoving into 5 people, the likelihood of us being called is higher. Also we're probably going to make more mistakes with ranges when there are more variables to account for.



I'm not totally against shoving as c9 says, but i'd personally prefer finding other options. I think we are just a touch too deep. But i'm definitely not sure on it, just voicing my opinion, which means less than nothing as i've played like 7 of these 180's .

 

[bgomez89]

Shoving pre is fine, might be preferable. I know its the standard play with an M of 10.

We're too deep, it's going to hate shoving anything over 12bb's. Also, since we're shoving into 5 people, the likelihood of us being called is higher. Also we're probably going to make more mistakes with ranges when there are more variables to account for.



I'm not totally against shoving as c9 says, but i'd personally prefer finding other options. I think we are just a touch too deep. But i'm definitely not sure on it, just voicing my opinion, which means less than nothing as i've played like 7 of these 180's .

agreed. I'm not going to open shove JTs from this spot, id probably only do it in the CO and that's still a maybe, at least according to this shovebot chart i have

 

[MrEpic94]

agreed. I'm not going to open shove JTs from this spot, id probably only do it in the CO and that's still a maybe, at least according to this shovebot chart i have

linkage to shov bot chart?

 

[Bwammo]

Just based on the assumption that this was the final table bubble, I have no real issues with making this steal if you know the other players are really tight. It's especially useful that the two "big" stacks are in the blinds and do not have position on you. Yes we're going to end up having to fold if someone pushes us around...but we're making the play based on the information that they are tight players and would be less likely to do so. If they're the kind of tight we want them to be and look down at a non premium but pretty hand, they would probably call us preflop and try to minimize the pot size, then upon missing they would just check/fold to us to make sure their stack size is in the best shape possible going into the FT.

If the table isn't perfectly aligned with tight/non aggro players, finding a fold here should be pretty easy. Maybe if the blinds were going up very soon and we were the smallest player or biggest player in the tournament we would have more reason to play the hand (if we had the big stack I would raise here every day all day)...but otherwise it's just an unnecessary risk.

All that being said, I'm pretty sure this would be a profitable long-term spot to shove...as for how profitable? Not as profitable as your other options

 

[bgomez89]

http://www.brad2002tjpoker.com/?p=84

enjoy

 

[MrEpic94]

http://www.brad2002tjpoker.com/?p=84

enjoy

thanks!

 

[RdotJdot]

I think its a fold UTG preflop 5handed here. But after just opening like he did and hitting pair I think he must call. He most likely wouldn't donk bet had he hit big there.

 

[MrEpic94]

donk bets are so confusing, coz I use them to bluff and other players only use them when they got a monster. I never know which one villain is doing because some villains use them to bluff aswell.

 

[Bwammo]

donk bets are so confusing, coz I use them to bluff and other players only use them when they got a monster. I never know which one villain is doing because some villains use them to bluff aswell.

It has everything to do with the size of the bet. If they are making a small like 2xBB bet, that is almost always a probe bet. If they are making a 3-4x+ bet, that is almost always something you need to find a bomb shelter and hide from.