$33 NLHE MTT Turbo: 3-bet All In pre-flop - call or fold?

[PPT]

Dealt AQs and two UTGs limped in, so I raised to 3BB only to see the next player push All In.

I used up all my time thinking about whether to call or fold. In the end I chose to call (marginally) simply because of [and I don't know if this is the right term] what I like to think of as pot equity. There was 7345 in the pot and I'd need to put in 4730 to call. Therefore I'd need 40%+ chance of winning to be ahead.

I thought he'd probably have a pocket pair, in which case unless it was KK or AA then I'd have 48% chance and be +EV. I feared most of all AK, KK or AA. Any of them and I'd be -EV.

In the end I called, in small part because he didn't have me covered, he had a low pocket and I hit my A without him hitting any outs. Winning nearly 2/1 on a coin flip is value, but if he'd had anything stronger it wouldn't have been. Was this the right call, or a wrong call?


888Poker, $30 + $3 - Hold'em No Limit - 125/250 (30 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 11,088 (44 bb)
UTG+1: 4,910 (20 bb)
MP: 11,460 (46 bb)
MP+1: 3,504 (14 bb)
CO (Hero): 6,327 (25 bb)
BU: 5,510 (22 bb)
SB: 6,507 (26 bb)
BB: 4,830 (19 bb)

Pre-Flop: (615) Hero is CO with A♠ Q♠
UTG calls 250, UTG+1 calls 250, 2 players fold, Hero raises to 750, BTN 3-bets to 5,480 (all-in), 4 players fold, Hero calls 4,730

Flop: (12,075) K♦ 3♦ 5♣ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (12,075) A♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (12,075) 7♣ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 12,075

Showdown:
BU shows 6♥ 6♦ (a pair of Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 52%, Flop: 76%, Turn: 25%, River: 0%)

CO (Hero) shows A♠ Q♠ (a pair of Aces)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 48%, Flop: 24%, Turn: 75%, River: 100%)

CO (Hero) wins 12,075

 

[300HPGOD]

I would change my tune here a little bit if we were on the exact money bubble or maybe two or three spots away from it but anything other than that I think I would just rip it in here. You are on 25 BBs to start the hand. With a limper and a caller in front I think raising to only 3x is way too small which will usually get calls from the two already in the hand and could easily get players after you to join as well creating a huge pot where you will partially be out of position if button comes along. 25 BBs might be about the max I would jam over limpers but I think that would be my plan in this hand.

As played with the 3x raise I think we have to factor in what we know about villain to make the right call/fold decision because as I point out later this decision is right on the break even point. If they are a tighter player then what can we hope they are turning over here since even AJ would be unlikely. It would be 1010+ and AK. So we need villain to have some worse Ax hands to make this a call that we are at least ahead on (we dont have to be ahead because of the pot odds you mention but if we lose we will be decimated so we want there to be some of the time where we are ahead of them). For villains we know nothing about I think we can assume AQ+ and pocket pairs of 88+. We are at 39.8% against that range with AQ suited and we need 40% equity with the pot odds. That means, of course, if I am ranging correctly here this is an indifferent choice of whether we should call or not.

 

[rabman50]

When we choose to get involved in a hand we should have a plan. At these stack depths there is not a lot of post-flop play available. We need to understand which players we are willing to get it all-in with. That said I agree with what 300 said. This is a hand I would fist-pump jam pre-flop with 25BB. Your raise to 3bb with two callers will not do anything but encourage the bigger stacks to call and see a flop. A raise here should be to at least 5bb which is very close to the point in which you should just jam.

 

[fundiver199]

I would raise larger, when the action first got to me. When you only make it 3BB against two limpers, you are giving people a fantastic price to call you, and the result will often be a multiway pot, where you will usually depend on hitting the flop to win the hand. You could simply jam, but I think, 25BB is a bit on the large side for that, and if you go to 5BB, you have still only committed 20% of your chips, so you can still have hands in your range, that plan on raise-folding.

When BTN jam on us for his 22BB, we are not jumping up and down with excitement, but we are to high in our range to fold, so this is a fairly standard call and not one, I need to use up my timebank to make. We just stick it in and hope to run good. Usually we need to win multible spots like this to reach the final table in an MTT.

 

[tt124f]

V has a decent shoving stack when you 3-bet, so they could be shoving many weaker ace and pocket pairs, I think you definitely get the right odds to call.

 

[tt124f]

I would raise larger, when the action first got to me. When you only make it 3BB against two limpers, you are giving people a fantastic price to call you, and the result will often be a multiway pot, where you will usually depend on hitting the flop to win the hand. You could simply jam, but I think, 25BB is a bit on the large side for that, and if you go to 5BB, you have still only committed 20% of your chips, so you can still have hands in your range, that plan on raise-folding.

When BTN jam on us for his 22BB, we are not jumping up and down with excitement, but we are to high in our range to fold, so this is a fairly standard call and not one, I need to use up my timebank to make. We just stick it in and hope to run good. Usually we need to win multible spots like this to reach the final table in an MTT.

I don’t think we can raise-folding here, 5 BB is too big an investment. I do prefer shoving w/ AQs because there are already 4.5 BB in the pot. This is a great hand to go all-in with, and we don’t want to play multi-way pot. What do you think?