$30 NLHE Deep Stacked: Value betting on river w/ AK

[cjatud2012]

$30 NL HE Deep Stacked: Value betting on river w/ AK

So I played this hand kind of weird. Was facing a middle position raise with AK on the button. Missed the flop, but it wasn't too wet-- decided to float and see what happened on the next street. The card was another blank, and villain checks to me, so I try to take it down (maybe could have bet more), then was called. Rivered an ace, and it was checked to me again. Can I bet for value here? Or is it too risky? Villain is 28/15/0.7 if it helps.


full tilt poker MiniFTOPS Event #10 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t120/t240 Blinds + t25 - 9 players - View hand 423966
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: t7657 M = 13.09
UTG+1: t6790 M = 11.61
UTG+2: t36310 M = 62.07
MP1: t6513 M = 11.13
MP2: t15840 M = 27.08
CO: t6355 M = 10.86
Hero (BTN): t10820 M = 18.50
SB: t8545 M = 14.61
BB: t8598 M = 14.70

Pre Flop: (t585) Hero is BTN with K ♥ A ♣
3 folds, MP1 raises to t510, 2 folds, Hero calls t510, 1 fold, BB calls t270

Flop: (t1875) Q ♥ 3 ♦ T ♦ (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets t720, Hero calls t720, BB folds

Turn: (t3315) 2 ♠ (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets t1680, MP1 calls t1680

River: (t6675) A ♠ (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero ???

 

[Jillychemung]

I think I check behind here as villains check/call on the turn is suspicious to me. Villain made his c-bet and then appears to have given up on the turn only to call your bet. Plus with villains short stack any vb by you makes it easy for him to shove and you'd have to call.

 

[c9h13no3]

OMFG just 3-bet shove pre.

 

[bolda3]

I check it right behind here. He could be on a missed draw here or Ax. I check and hope to take down the pot

 

[cjatud2012]

OMFG just 3-bet shove pre.

Even with stacks this deep?

 

[c9h13no3]

You're playing 27bb stacks, how are stacks deep? Maybe you can justify calling if the BB/SB's favorite habit is to super spew with middle pair in multi-way pots, but otherwise we really need to 3-bet this.

 

[cjatud2012]

You're playing 27bb stacks, how are stacks deep? Maybe you can justify calling if the BB/SB's favorite habit is to super spew with middle pair in multi-way pots, but otherwise we really need to 3-bet this.

Touche.

As played, though, what seems reasonable on the river?

 

[GeoffLacey]

We have like 8k left and pot is not far off 7k. How bad is just shoving?

 

[c9h13no3]

We have like 8k left and pot is not far off 7k. How bad is just shoving?

I don't think we'd get a Q or T to call, and we can't fold to a raise. I'd bet like 2200 on the river.

 

[baudib1]

very easy shipperooski pre

 

[cjatud2012]

Seems like the consensus is to ship pre-flop, we are only in yellow M-zone, and we potentially increase of stack by 10% without seeing a card. Some varying opinions about the river play (maybe that discussion will continue).

I ended up checking behind after weird call by villain on turn, and villain shows QJ of spades-- I take down the pot with my ace on the river.

 

[baudib1]

imo the problem with this hand is betting the turn...you don't want to get raised off it when you have potentially 10 outs to make your hand with 1 card to come.

 

[Zybomb]

3 bet pre for sure but I dislike shopping it pre. A lot of ppl in the past year have seem to fallen into the overshove AK pre boat... but it's so obvious and these same people don't play AA or KK like this which doesn't even it out.

As played we kept the pot small so I dunno if I like floating this with a gutshot / overs sandwiched but it's close...I'd like it a littl emore if we had the A or K of diamonds in our hand

On the turn once he checks I like betting obviously (the point of floating the flop)....he just calls

I can't comprehend how any responses say this is suspicious or scary. THIS IS A MEDIUM 1 PAIR HAND. KQ QJ AT JJ or similiar. No big hands will bet the flop and c/c the turn on this wet board with straight and flush draws galore. Even AQ will likely just bet again.

The river comes and I value bet. We can get some value out of missed nut flush draws that will call down as well as well as random other nonsense from bad opponents but in addition (and possibly more importantly) we are fine taking down the pot here and not showing our cards.... by checking behind we ensure that our hand is shown which tells opponents a lot of crucial information

- We cold called pre with AK
- We floated their flop bet with a gutshot and overs
- We bluffed the turn when checked to
- We don't value bet thin on the river

That's a lot of info to give up for free. Since villains range is mostly draws and medium 1 pair hands, the only hands we are worried about are AT and KJ

 

[cjatud2012]

I think the main problem I had with this hand was just putting villain on a range... Seems like it's obvious to most (and now pretty obvious to me) what his holdings could have been after the turn call.

imo the problem with this hand is betting the turn...you don't want to get raised off it when you have potentially 10 outs to make your hand with 1 card to come.

I guess I didn't really fear a raise-- from the pots I had watched him play he was more of a calling station than a tricky player. But I didn't include that in OP, so I guess it's a fair possibility. Plus, the turn couldn't have hit any part of his range that would inspire a c/r. I was just really expecting him to c/f the turn, which is why I floated to begin with.

Thanks for the helpful advice everyone!

 

[Zybomb]

I originally thought villain covered us. I just realized he has 3600 left with almost 6700 in the pot on the river. Auto auto auto auto shove

As for the check the turn comment, calling the flop is bad if that's our intention. We need to take the hand down a % of the time when he slows down on the turn (and we miss) for calling the flop to be +EV

 

[Jillychemung]

I can't comprehend how any responses say this is suspicious or scary. THIS IS A MEDIUM 1 PAIR HAND. KQ QJ AT JJ or similiar. No big hands will bet the flop and c/c the turn on this wet board with straight and flush draws galore. Even AQ will likely just bet again.

Unfortunately I see this exact line by opponents with TT & QQ all the time.

 

[GeoffLacey]

Unfortunately I see this exact line by opponents with TT & QQ all the time.

so you check back this river?

 

[Jillychemung]

Unfortunately I see this exact line by opponents with TT & QQ all the time.

so you check back this river?

To clarify, opponents with pocket TT & QQ

 

[ImolAyrton]

He makes a big bet on the flop and decides to check-call the turn.. Hmm sounds to me he is setting a trap. I would not bet for value here. I think he will reraise you.

 

[Zybomb]

He makes a big bet on the flop and decides to check-call the turn.. Hmm sounds to me he is setting a trap. I would not bet for value here. I think he will reraise you.

Um WHAT? He bet 720 into a 1880, not even 40% of the pot...that's a big bet? Thats a WEAK BET. Then he checks the turn and just calls when there are multiple straight draws and flush draws out there? and u think he has a monster? how? why?

 

[Aaronftw]

To me it almost looks like villain, has given up on the hand after the flop. He's either drawing or has a weak TP or 2nd pair. Possibly KJ? although i cant see him checking back the river with the nut straight id find open shoving more profitable, stranger things have happened though. Possibly a missed flush draw?

On the river villain has around 3500 left? and you have around a pot sized bet 7k. Im probarbly betting around 2600 and calling a shove here.

Im also 3 betting to stop this situation, it clarifies our hand, and we are in position.