$3 NLHE STT Turbo: A/Q Suited Bubble Time-Raise or Fold?

[the lab man]

2 Table Turbo SnG 18s


pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.4 Tournament, 300/600 Blinds 50 Ante (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB (t4125)
BB (t5290)
UTG (t2480)
Hero (MP) (t5980)
CO (t5980)
Button (t3145)
Hero's M: 4.98
Preflop: Hero is MP with Q

, A

UTG bets t1200,
Total pot: t1800

Hero ???? Push or fold ???

Down to final 6 from 18 ...struggled with low stack ,just hit 2 hands to move up in chips, I should be pushing here Right? But I just got chips and their are 3 short stacks below me. All players mix of regs and decent players.

?????

 

[WiZZiM]

Jam without thinking.

 

[OzExorcist]

Unless you've got some kind of read that an open minraise from this player means something special I'd be happy shoving this.

The shorter stacks aren't short enough that we can think about just nitting our way into the money, plus we get the additional fold equity that comes with being the chip leader and threatening everyone else with elimination. The only hands we're worried about are QQ+ / AK and I have trouble putting villain on that sort of hand - usually with hand that strong the average villain will either raise more for value or limp as a trap.

Bringing it all together we've got plenty of fold equity (the players left to act have to have something very strong to get involved if we raise) and we perform well against the average villain's range if we do get called. I'd be shoving.

 

[ben_rhyno]

Unless you've got some kind of read that an open minraise from this player means something special I'd be happy shoving this.

The shorter stacks aren't short enough that we can think about just nitting our way into the money, plus we get the additional fold equity that comes with being the chip leader and threatening everyone else with elimination. The only hands we're worried about are QQ+ / AK and I have trouble putting villain on that sort of hand - usually with hand that strong the average villain will either raise more for value or limp as a trap.

Bringing it all together we've got plenty of fold equity (the players left to act have to have something very strong to get involved if we raise) and we perform well against the average villain's range if we do get called. I'd be shoving.

I think we have zero fold equity v UTG, any decent player wouldn't invest half their stack and fold UTG. I still think this i s a snap shove

 

[OzExorcist]

I think we have zero fold equity v UTG, any decent player wouldn't invest half their stack and fold UTG. I still think this i s a snap shove

Good point, I just focussed on the minraise and didn't notice it was half his stack too

To play devil's advocate for a moment though I have seen some players make this fold, and are we really dealing with a decent player if they're making this move in the first place?

 

[WiZZiM]

Good point, I just focussed on the minraise and didn't notice it was half his stack too

To play devil's advocate for a moment though I have seen some players make this fold, and are we really dealing with a decent player if they're making this move in the first place?

If he's trying to get more Fold equity by making a small raise perhaps. But 99.99% of the time, no, we're facing an idiot.

 

[the lab man]

The mini raise looked like a stop n go raise and screamed to me I've got a big hand.

 

[Marginal]

Grunching:

I shove here. We crush ranges.

 

[PattyR]

cant really wait for a better hand than this. shove

 

[brackdog]

Timid bubble play is a definite weakness in my game, and I'm very good at finding reasons not to play hands on the bubble, hoping that a small stack will bust. Too many times this timidity leads to me becoming the small stack In this hand, I would typically rationalize folding with the following "logic":

If I fold, there are three possibilities. In order of likelihood:

1) action folds to BB who calls or raises with most hands, as he's getting 3:1 pot odds

2) someone else calls, raises or shoves behind me

3) everyone folds to the min raise

In scenario #1, if BB calls or raises, odds are the money goes in. If BB wins, bubble breaks. If BB loses, BB and short stack essentially swap stack sizes, no overall change for me (except that the blinds are one position closer).

Same general outcome with scenario #2. Small stack either gets wiped out, doubles up and trades stack sizes with another player or folds, and is killed off by the blinds on the next two hands.

Scenario #3 is pretty unlikely unless everyone at the table is a total wuss like me.

Before you guys go ballistic, I really do understand why folding is a bad play here. But when I get close to the bubble, I always find myself shutting down and waiting for someone else to screw up. I hate getting so close and not getting paid. Something to keep working on.

bd

 

[Bwammo]

I definitely recommend shipping here, but it's largely due to who we're facing. The fact that we have zero fold equity and that he might have a good hand don't even matter that much...it has more to do with what happens to our stack if we lose and what happens to our tournament path if we win.

If we lose we're still alive in the tournament with roughly 3400 which is the same level as many of the stacks around you. If we win, we're now in first place and that might open up a few more plays, but most importantly we'd be the big stack on the bubble...which would allow us to wait if we so choose. By taking a bit of a risk here and shipping, knowing that you're probably coinflipping on average against his range, we're making sure that we have some options on the bubble.