$3 NLHE STT: 10 10 on bubble call or fold

[seanDCFC]

Villain here was playing pretty tight but since the blinds went up to 200/100 they were either shoving or folding. Calling and losing basically puts me out, but if I win I go into the money with a nice stack. Is it worth taking a risk here?

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.4 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (4 handed) - PokerStars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com
UTG (t2154)
Button (t3795)
SB (t3467)
Hero (BB) (t4084)
Hero's M: 13.61
Preflop: Hero is BB with 10

, 10

1 fold, Button bets t3795 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero???

 

[brackdog]

I don't play STTs, so I'm trying to project this hand on a final table scenario. I think I'm folding here. I'm going to push with that hand, but I'm not going to call an all in with it. You would call hoping to see Ax or a smaller pair, but chances are you're looking at two overs and racing. Or worse.

There are other stacks that are feeling way more pressure to play; let them race.

bd

 

[seanDCFC]

You would call hoping to see Ax or a smaller pair, but chances are you're looking at two overs and racing. Or worse.

Now this is what I was thinking during the hand. However would it be so bad to be racing here? we could well be 55/45, maybe better if they show an ace with a lower kicker than a 10, which is certainly possible. If the hand holds up then im in a super position to win, if I was playing to simply cash then this would be an easy fold for me but im not playing for 2nd or 3rd, I want to win.

Maybe this isnt the best spot to take a chance, but the way im looking at it is that if we are favourite (even if only slight) here, which I think we will be a lot of the time then I should make the call. My thinking may be totally flawed here, if I am feel free to tell me that I am talking nonsence. :icon_thum

 

[Clambake420]

This is a close spot. Your not being offered great pot odds which leans it to a fold just looking at the pot. But you figure villain to be pretty wide here as i don't see him shoving a strong hand here. since both the blinds have about the same stack as villain a shove here seems like a steal attempt. The short stack has 10bb so its not like hes crazy short stack ( a double up from him puts you and him at roughly equal stacks). So waiting for him to bust is not optimal. I can argue a fold here, keeping your stack healthy and then waiting for the SS to be in the blinds and attacking his stack. I think id rather be re-stealing or being initial raiser with this hand, calling seems like a huge gamble. Your probably up against pp less then TT(best case), Ax,Kx type hands, maybe mid Suited connectors maybe. So all in all i think im leaning towards a fold and waiting for better spots ie stealing against the SS. But im sure there is an argument for calling.

 

[loopmeister]

I think your bubble factor is at least 1.5 here, maybe 2 'cos it's a clash of the big stacks. So your tournament odds are pot odds / 2 = 0.5:1 or around 65% equity.

Calling here is then very read dependent. It's a call if villain shoves 35% of his hands or more. That's Ax,K5+,K2s+,22+,Any broadway or looser. Tighter than that and you're looking at a fold.

 

[seanDCFC]

I think your bubble factor is at least 1.5 here, maybe 2 'cos it's a clash of the big stacks. So your tournament odds are pot odds / 2 = 0.5:1 or around 65% equity.

Calling here is then very read dependent. It's a call if villain shoves 35% of his hands or more. That's Ax,K5+,K2s+,22+,Any broadway or looser. Tighter than that and you're looking at a fold.

I dont think that villain was shoving 35% or more of hands. Maybe 25% at most, so I should fold. Thanks for the responces.

 

[Siao]

This is a fold scenario. Too many different hands to be up against. Not the best spot to take a chance.

 

[Poker Orifice]

Blinds are still relatively low & we're sitting in good shape with 20+bb... I fold this all day long. (I highly doubt villain is shipping w AX where X= <10).
Not sure what we need to call this shove (from ICM perspective... but also we must consider the ability of other players on the table).. but my guess is that we need KK+ to make a call here (AK = fold).

 

[ljove]

I will call here.It is 4handed you can't wait just for AA.
I played lot of tourneys on stars last few days and you can't imagine what hands I had lost against craps.
So push all in and hope for the best.

 

[cjatud2012]

It depends on the villain. If he's been tight up to this point he's probably not pushing all that wide with 20bb's.

I will call here.It is 4handed you can't wait just for AA.
I played lot of tourneys on stars last few days and you can't imagine what hands I had lost against craps.
So push all in and hope for the best.

I fail to see how this is at all relevant to the thread. Also, just "hoping for the best" is never a good strategy.

 

[WiZZiM]

This is never a call, unless you hate money.

Orifice- I'd say QQ+ would be the range, unpaired hands like AK suck in these situations.

Clambake- I highly doubt he's shoving that wide of a range, it's a tight player, this is most likely not QQ+ so we can discount those pretty much, more like something like AQ AJ AK 77+. Something he's not sure what to do but shove all in. Ax or Kx, while possible, is extremely unlikely.

 

[Clambake420]

I will call here.It is 4handed you can't wait just for AA.
I played lot of tourneys on stars last few days and you can't imagine what hands I had lost against craps.
So push all in and hope for the best.

Your not waiting for AA, your waiting for a better spot then calling your entire stack on a gamble.

Clambake- I highly doubt he's shoving that wide of a range, it's a tight player, this is most likely not QQ+ so we can discount those pretty much, more like something like AQ AJ AK 77+. Something he's not sure what to do but shove all in. Ax or Kx, while possible, is extremely unlikely.

Yea wizzim i agree, i dont know why i first thought his range would be as wide as i stated. Thrown off by the ~20bb shove vs blinds.

 

[Poker Orifice]

I will call here.It is 4handed you can't wait just for AA.
I played lot of tourneys on stars last few days and you can't imagine what hands I had lost against craps.
So push all in and hope for the best.

Not surprised by this ^ answer here... and in a way it is 'relevant' (it's relevant to how this guy plays lol).

LOL at the suggestion of waiting for AA.

 

[baudib1]

Gross spot, but shoving ATC into the BB when you're SB is better than calling here.

BTN should not be shoving wide with the stacks that kill him in the blinds.

 

[jbbb]

Don't understand why BTN is shoving 18+ BB's on the bubble into a stack that could bust him?
Being super strong you'd expect a smaller bet to maybe induce a 3 bet shove AI or a small call so he can C-bet big.
Being weak (i.e K5s A2-A5 etc) you'd also expect a small bet so he can fold to a shove.
Anyone got any ideas why the hell he's shoving here?

Say he's shoving fairly tight
equity win tie
Hand 0: 49.500% 48.91% 00.59% { 99+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 50.500% 49.91% 00.59% 671734416 7928826.00 { TT }
were only 50/50 with this range, and so a fold is definitely the best move due to our equity.

Please though, someone explain the reasons of shoving 18BB here?
Thanks

 

[WiZZiM]

Please though, someone explain the reasons of shoving 18BB here?
Thanks

Because he is stupid.

 

[Xavier]

If it was a satellite where only first place paid anything then this would be an instant snap call, but in an STT I think folding is probably correct, in the absence of reads.

Getting into a coinflip in this spot gives you a massive drop of equity, and there are too many overcard combinations in his range.