Done playing on PokerStars now, so lets pull out Equilab and do some actual math. First the
pot odds. If I get raised, jam and get called, I am paying 4016 chips to win a pot of 9396, so in raw chip EV I need 42,7% equity.
Lets begin with the worst case, which is, he is only raising nutted hands. Lets say sets, 65 for the flopped straight and 87 for two pair. I included suited and offsuit combos, since he limped. I think, 84 and 74 is a stretch, so I did not include these. Against this really tight range I have 41,6% equity, so I can already make a nearly break even jam.
Now lets say he is also raising some top pair and some draws. I will not include every single combo, because I think, someone who limped, is also going to do a lot of calling on the flop. But lets say A8o and A8s to represent top pair, T9s to represent OESD and all the reasonable flushdraws, since these are kind of a worst case scenario for me. Now I have 45,6% equity when called.
Now to figure out if a jam is profitable, we also need to take fold equity and ICM into account, but these point in opposite directions. And I think, its fair to say, that when its profitable in pure chip EV against anything but the tighest possible range, then we can never fold on the flop. So the only options are call or jam, and unless his raise comes in very small, I think, jamming is best. It ensures, we get to see all 5 cards, and that we get paid, when we improve to the best hand