$3.5 NLHE MTT: Jack high like a boss

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fundiver199

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We are 7 left in a 3,5$ 18 man SnG on pokerstars. Opponent stats are VPIP 47 / PFR 18 over 38 hands. Kind of hated that river bet, since I dont like folding for less than 10% of the pot, and I also dont like bluff-raising a recreational player. So in the end I went "WTF lets call and see his hand" :)

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300HPGOD

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I would not go quite as big on that lead out there since I am not too worried about being called but only dont want to get raised at that point. If we get raised off our equity (not sure what your plan was to do if you got raised in a limp pot here) its really sucks here so I prefer going smaller so that if there is a raise to that its easier to call the raise. I know nothing about villains other than they limped so maybe a raise is never happening from them but I still like smaller here on flop.

The rest of the hand is played well imo and each street should be a check by you and with villain making your life easy and giving you odds to draw with the turn bet and also then making a silly min bet on the river when they are closing the action they are easy calls, even when you have J high. I would be calling that river with any two cards since I think seeing villains cards are worth the 1 big blind.
 
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fundiver199

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With a 12 out draw and two overcards, I am stacking off on the flop, if someone puts in a raise. Whatever they have, this particular hand is never that far behind.
 
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Badday94

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With both a straight and a flush draw I like the bet on the flop, but aren't you supposed to double barrel it and raise on the turn also, then check the river if you missed? Sorry not that you're supposed to, how you played it is just as fine. Also I would not have taken the lead if I were that guy and even if I did on turn, that river bet was just awfull. It's good to bet small on the river since it seems like a value bet with a strong hand, but 160 was just too low and most people would call and I would call even out of curiosity to see what he had so I gain information on him. Something like 300 would have been much better I think. With his stack he also would have easily afforded to do so. I don't really know what that was tbh.
 
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fundiver199

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I checked the turn, because the board paired with top card, which is probably the worst thing, that can happen, when you are drawing to a straight or flush. The overcard outs as well as 7h are now significantly less valuable, I might be drawing dead already, there is only one more card to come, and my equity against his range has just basically tanked. Also top pair is certainly in his range, and if he just made trips, he is likely to raise, which might force me to fold and give up my equity. So I basically checked the turn to increase my chance of being able to see the river. I am not really concerned about playing in a balanced way against someone, who limped into the pot :)
 
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Badday94

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I checked the turn, because the board paired with top card, which is probably the worst thing, that can happen, when you are drawing to a straight or flush. The overcard outs as well as 7h are now significantly less valuable, I might be drawing dead already, there is only one more card to come, and my equity against his range has just basically tanked. Also top pair is certainly in his range, and if he just made trips, he is likely to raise, which might force me to fold and give up my equity. So I basically checked the turn to increase my chance of being able to see the river. I am not really concerned about playing in a balanced way against someone, who limped into the pot :)

You definitely know what you're doing, that's for sure haha. Thanks for explaining :)
 
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FernA9ndo

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He wants to win without showdown, and he is betting every street. Check raising on the turn and hero fold on the river when draws missed. Every street you played well.
 
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300HPGOD

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With a 12 out draw and two overcards, I am stacking off on the flop, if someone puts in a raise. Whatever they have, this particular hand is never that far behind.


Curious what range you would put him on if he raises there? I would think (without knowing villain) that it is rarely a bluff but at worst would be some kind of protection raise with 8x. The other possibilities to me would be sets, and flush draws. I dont think there is a 2 pair combo that would limp there since I would think 84 or something like that is here but at 47% vpip maybe. I am not sure A3 raises with it being only a 5 for an out unless they have A3 suited and that would fall into the flush draws. So to me its 8x, sets, flush draws. 8x you are doing fine against (within 5% of pure flipping depending on kicker and if its a Heart), sets your crushed, bigger heart draws (which A6 hearts type hands are very possible) your crushed, 65 hearts and stuff like that would be possible which you got beat but overall I am not sure I would want to play for stacks if I am ranging him correctly. If he has air then I am on board but I think to me it seems its a scenario that against the entire range you would be getting it in bad. I will say I am not factoring in any fold equity after they would raise your flop and then you jam but I feel like if they are raising there then they are probably ready to play for stacks themselves.
 
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fundiver199

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Curious what range you would put him on if he raises there? I would think (without knowing villain) that it is rarely a bluff but at worst would be some kind of protection raise with 8x. The other possibilities to me would be sets, and flush draws. I dont think there is a 2 pair combo that would limp there since I would think 84 or something like that is here but at 47% vpip maybe. I am not sure A3 raises with it being only a 5 for an out unless they have A3 suited and that would fall into the flush draws. So to me its 8x, sets, flush draws. 8x you are doing fine against (within 5% of pure flipping depending on kicker and if its a Heart), sets your crushed, bigger heart draws (which A6 hearts type hands are very possible) your crushed, 65 hearts and stuff like that would be possible which you got beat but overall I am not sure I would want to play for stacks if I am ranging him correctly. If he has air then I am on board but I think to me it seems its a scenario that against the entire range you would be getting it in bad. I will say I am not factoring in any fold equity after they would raise your flop and then you jam but I feel like if they are raising there then they are probably ready to play for stacks themselves.

I cant pull out Equilab right now, because I am playing on PokerStars, but I am pretty sure, this hand is never "crushed". I have 12 outs against a flopped straight, 11 outs against a set and 9 outs against a better flushdraw like A6 of hearts (6 of them pair outs). That should amount to at least 40% equity against this top of his range. And I am slightly ahead of top pair, plus there could be just a bit of fold equity :)
 
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fundiver199

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Done playing on PokerStars now, so lets pull out Equilab and do some actual math. First the pot odds. If I get raised, jam and get called, I am paying 4016 chips to win a pot of 9396, so in raw chip EV I need 42,7% equity.

Lets begin with the worst case, which is, he is only raising nutted hands. Lets say sets, 65 for the flopped straight and 87 for two pair. I included suited and offsuit combos, since he limped. I think, 84 and 74 is a stretch, so I did not include these. Against this really tight range I have 41,6% equity, so I can already make a nearly break even jam.

Now lets say he is also raising some top pair and some draws. I will not include every single combo, because I think, someone who limped, is also going to do a lot of calling on the flop. But lets say A8o and A8s to represent top pair, T9s to represent OESD and all the reasonable flushdraws, since these are kind of a worst case scenario for me. Now I have 45,6% equity when called.

Now to figure out if a jam is profitable, we also need to take fold equity and ICM into account, but these point in opposite directions. And I think, its fair to say, that when its profitable in pure chip EV against anything but the tighest possible range, then we can never fold on the flop. So the only options are call or jam, and unless his raise comes in very small, I think, jamming is best. It ensures, we get to see all 5 cards, and that we get paid, when we improve to the best hand :)
 
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300HPGOD

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I cant pull out Equilab right now, because I am playing on PokerStars, but I am pretty sure, this hand is never "crushed". I have 12 outs against a flopped straight, 11 outs against a set and 9 outs against a better flushdraw like A6 of hearts (6 of them pair outs). That should amount to at least 40% equity against this top of his range. And I am slightly ahead of top pair, plus there could be just a bit of fold equity :)


It was crushed with the flop I used which was wrong lol (my bad). I used a flop of 842 for some reason and not 874 which changes a lot due to the 10s. Sorry for the extra work I put you through but I still like picking your brain and gaining knowledge. Thanks for posting
 
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